Millions displaced, hopes diminished: Myanmar's ongoing crisis

By Nava Thakuria* 

As the world observed World Refugee Day on 20 June, Myanmar (also known as Burma) stood out as one of the world's gravest humanitarian crises. More than five years after the military coup of 1 February 2021, the country continues to witness widespread displacement, armed conflict, economic collapse, and shrinking civic space. The military-led administration in Naypyitaw faces sustained allegations from the United Nations and international rights groups of contributing to one of the largest refugee and displacement crises in Asia.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, more than one million Myanmar nationals have fled to neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh, Thailand, and India, particularly the northeastern states of Manipur and Mizoram. Around 3.7 million people remain internally displaced, many living in border regions with limited access to food, healthcare, education, and shelter. Humanitarian agencies estimate that chronic poverty now affects a substantial majority of Myanmar's population of about 55 million.

The crisis deepened after the military overthrew the democratically elected government led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. Since then, large parts of the country have witnessed repeated military operations, airstrikes, village burnings, and targeted attacks that have forced hundreds of communities to flee. Although junta leader Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency following the disputed elections held between December 2025 and January 2026 and has since spoken of peace and national development, critics argue that conditions on the ground have shown little meaningful improvement.

Min Aung Hlaing's recent official visits to India and China have reflected the strategic importance that both countries attach to Myanmar. India's engagement is also influenced by connectivity and infrastructure projects such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway. Yet diplomatic engagement has not altered the humanitarian realities confronting ordinary Myanmar citizens.

The country's territorial control remains deeply fragmented. Independent assessments suggest that the military administration exercises effective authority over only about one-third of Myanmar, while ethnic resistance organisations and People's Defence Forces administer significant portions of the country. The remaining areas continue to witness intense fighting. Since coordinated offensives by anti-junta forces began in late 2023, the conflict has increasingly resembled a nationwide civil war. In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army has reportedly established control over most of the territory and continues to challenge military control of the state capital, Sittwe.

The human cost has been staggering. Earlier UN estimates suggested that more than 75,000 people had died since the coup. More recently, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project estimated that fatalities have exceeded 100,000. ACLED has also reported the involvement of more than 1,000 armed groups, making Myanmar one of the world's most fragmented conflict zones and among the most conflict-affected countries in recent years.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has repeatedly expressed concern over continuing military operations in Rakhine and central Myanmar, where civilians bear the greatest burden of the violence. Human rights organisations have documented repeated aerial attacks involving fighter aircraft, drones, and other platforms on civilian areas, including schools, hospitals, and displacement camps.

Children have emerged among the conflict's greatest victims. Millions have lost access to formal education as schools remain closed, damaged, or inaccessible due to insecurity. Estimates indicate that more than six million children and young people could remain out of school during the 2026-27 academic year. Healthcare services have also been severely disrupted, with medical personnel killed, clinics destroyed, and several private hospitals forced to shut down.

Myanmar's media has suffered a similar decline. Since the coup, hundreds of journalists and media workers have reportedly faced arrest, prosecution, or intimidation. According to the Geneva-based Press Emblem Campaign, more than 15 journalists remain imprisoned. The organisation has also expressed concern over the cancellation of licences of media outlets, including Myaelatt Athan, Red News Agency, and Asia Citizens, adding to the growing number of news organisations facing legal restrictions and operational harassment.

Meanwhile, the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by elected lawmakers removed from office after the coup, continues to challenge the junta's legitimacy. It has called on international investors to ensure transparency, accountability, and respect for local communities while warning that agreements concluded solely with the military authorities may face future legal, financial, and political uncertainties. The NUG has also reiterated its demand for the unconditional release of Aung San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners.

Myanmar's prolonged conflict has evolved into far more than a domestic political struggle. It has become a regional humanitarian emergency with implications for neighbouring countries, refugee protection, regional security, and international diplomacy. As violence continues and millions remain displaced or deprived of basic services, the prospects for a durable political settlement appear uncertain. Until meaningful dialogue, accountability, and humanitarian access are secured, Myanmar's people are likely to continue bearing the heavy costs of a conflict with no clear end in sight.

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*Senior journalist based in Guwahati