Beyond the monsoon: El Niño's far-reaching impact on India

By Raj Kumar Sinha 

Recent climate forecasts indicate a strong possibility that an exceptionally powerful El Niño event could develop during the latter part of 2026. Scientists have outlined its likely impacts on India across several phases, beginning with disruptions to the southwest monsoon, followed by damage to kharif crops, rising food prices, warmer winters affecting rabi cultivation, and broader economic and social consequences extending into early 2027. While forecasts remain probabilistic rather than certain, the possibility of a strong El Niño demands serious attention from policymakers and the public alike.

El Niño is not merely a seasonal weather anomaly. It is a large-scale climate phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean that has far-reaching consequences for agriculture, water resources, public health, energy security, and economic stability across many parts of the world. For a country like India, where nearly half of agricultural land remains rain-fed and millions of livelihoods depend directly on the monsoon, the stakes are especially high.

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm ocean waters westward towards Asia and Australia. During an El Niño event, these winds weaken, allowing warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures to develop over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This alters global atmospheric circulation and often weakens the Indian summer monsoon, although the exact impacts vary from year to year.

Historical records show that several major drought years in India have coincided with El Niño events. A weakened monsoon often results in below-normal rainfall, delayed sowing, prolonged dry spells, and uneven precipitation. However, climate change has added a new dimension to this pattern. Instead of simply reducing rainfall, it has increased the likelihood of extreme weather events, meaning that periods of deficient rainfall may be punctuated by episodes of intense cloudbursts and flash floods. Thus, India now faces the dual challenge of drought and flooding during the same monsoon season.

Environmental researcher Ishant Agrawal of Uttarakhand argues that while global warming, El Niño, and warming oceans are frequently blamed for erratic monsoons, scientific research also points to human-induced ecological degradation within India. Rapid urbanisation, deforestation, destruction of wetlands, and the spread of monoculture farming have weakened local water cycles, reduced soil moisture, and altered regional climatic conditions. Studies increasingly suggest that changes in land use and declining vegetation cover contribute to growing uncertainty in monsoon behaviour.

Preparing for stronger and more frequent climate shocks requires a comprehensive national strategy. Rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, watershed development, crop diversification, promotion of drought-resistant seed varieties, reduced dependence on chemical-intensive agriculture, expansion of climate-resilient farming practices, conservation of local water bodies, and improved weather forecasting systems should form the backbone of India's adaptation efforts. Expanding urban green spaces and implementing effective heat action plans can also reduce the impacts of rising temperatures.

According to official assessments, nearly 315 districts may receive below-normal rainfall, many of which already have limited irrigation facilities. These districts are spread across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha. The government has reportedly prepared contingency plans focusing on water management, seed availability, and alternative cropping strategies. Special emphasis has been placed on safeguarding major kharif crops such as paddy and maize through the promotion of short-duration and drought-tolerant crop varieties, while state-level monitoring committees have been established to track rainfall, reservoir levels, and the availability of agricultural inputs.

Within Madhya Pradesh, districts including Dhar, Jhabua, Barwani, Neemuch, Ratlam, Datia, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Panna, Shivpuri, Mandla, Satna, Betul, Chhindwara, and Khandwa are considered particularly vulnerable if rainfall deficits materialise.

Agriculture remains central to India's economy despite its declining share in national GDP. A weak monsoon can reduce the production of rice, wheat, pulses, sugarcane, and oilseeds, increase irrigation costs, and weaken farm incomes. Concerns over lower sugarcane production have, in recent years, influenced government decisions regarding sugar exports.

Water resources are another area of concern. Lower rainfall reduces river flows, reservoir storage, and groundwater recharge. States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and the Bundelkhand region already face severe groundwater stress. A strong El Niño could intensify these pressures.

El Niño years are also generally associated with higher global temperatures. Scientists warn that future El Niño events occurring against the backdrop of climate change may push global temperatures to unprecedented levels. India could experience longer and more severe heatwaves, intensified urban heat island effects, reduced labour productivity, and increased heat-related illnesses and fatalities. Poor households and workers in the informal sector are likely to bear the greatest burden.

The social consequences are equally significant. Small and marginal farmers, landless labourers, women, tribal communities, fishermen, and informal workers have fewer resources to cope with climate shocks. Crop failures, water scarcity, declining incomes, migration, and widening inequalities may deepen social vulnerability in many regions.

The fisheries sector is not immune either. Rising sea temperatures associated with El Niño can disrupt marine ecosystems and food chains, affecting fish stocks and the livelihoods of small-scale fishing communities. Coastal states such as Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Kerala may experience significant impacts.

El Niño was once viewed primarily as a naturally occurring climate cycle. However, human-induced climate change is increasing both its intensity and unpredictability. For India, El Niño is no longer simply a meteorological event; it represents a multidimensional challenge encompassing food security, water availability, public health, energy security, and economic resilience.

India cannot prevent El Niño, but it can reduce its vulnerability through sound environmental governance, climate-resilient agriculture, sustainable water management, ecosystem restoration, and science-based policy planning. The window for preparation is narrowing. Timely investments in adaptation today will determine how effectively the country withstands the climate challenges of tomorrow.