From ceasefires to strikes: How Israeli pressure shapes U.S. policy in the region

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra*

The ongoing Middle East conflict underscores a striking divergence between Israeli persistence and American vacillation. While the United States under President Donald Trump oscillated between escalation and negotiation, Israel pursued a consistent military campaign against Iran and its regional allies, demonstrating a willingness to absorb higher costs in pursuit of perceived existential security.

Israel’s strategic calculus is rooted in its immediate geography. The Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 reinforced its long-standing view of Iran as an existential threat, not only due to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions but also its patronage of armed groups such as Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq. For Washington, however, Iran represents a challenge to American interests and presence in the region, not a direct threat to national survival. This difference in perception explains why the U.S. National Security Strategy prioritizes the Western Hemisphere and China, while Israel remains fixated on its regional adversaries.

The divergence became more pronounced when Israel disregarded U.S.-brokered ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, continuing strikes that reflected its determination to prevent any respite for adversaries. Trump’s shifting rhetoric—at times declaring victory, at other times threatening Iran’s energy infrastructure, and intermittently pausing strikes for negotiations—illustrated a tactical inconsistency. Israel, by contrast, maintained a trajectory of sustained confrontation, even targeting senior Iranian officials to forestall ceasefire momentum.

The influence of Israeli lobbying in Washington adds another layer to this dynamic. Scholars such as John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt have long argued that pro-Israel networks, notably AIPAC, shape American foreign policy decisions. The resignation of Joe Kent, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, citing Israeli pressure as a factor in the war’s initiation, highlights the extent to which Israeli inputs may override U.S. hesitations. American vetoes at the UN Security Council and billions in military aid further illustrate the institutionalized nature of this support.

Historically, the U.S. has avoided direct strikes on Iran, preferring to target proxies and commanders abroad, as in the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Israel’s post-2023 campaign, however, appears to have drawn Washington into a more direct confrontation. This suggests an inversion of influence: Israel shaping U.S. policy more than Washington restraining Tel Aviv. The shared political challenges of Netanyahu and Trump—both facing domestic crises—may have reinforced the alignment, with war serving as a distraction from internal pressures.

Ultimately, the contrast lies in strategic priorities. Israel views the conflict as existential and unending, while the U.S. treats it as a peripheral theater, subject to tactical adjustments and broader geopolitical calculations. The interplay of Israeli resolve and American indecision reveals not only the asymmetry of interests but also the enduring capacity of Israeli inputs to shape U.S. war trajectories in the Middle East.

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*Senior Lecturer in Political Science, SVM Autonomous College, Jagatsinghpur, Odisha

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