Edible oil inflation risks rise as monsoon weakens, crude prices surge

By A Representative

India’s edible oil imports are shifting from price-led buying to supply-driven sourcing as combine with climate shocks and energy market volatility, according to the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA).

Speaking at the , said three forces will shape the sector in 2026–27: weak monsoons, , and tightening edible oil availability. “The overall bias remains slightly bullish as India stays stable, supported by efficient supply chains, smart imports, and policy interventions,” she noted.

Shah cautioned that could inch up due to crude volatility, fertiliser shortages, gas-linked production constraints, and tightening . Yet India’s role as a “sink” for global surpluses will cushion the impact. “India remains a prime destination for any surpluses wherever in the world they exist,” she said.

Imports have been range-bound at 15–17 million tonnes, with imports up 11% year-on-year to 1.19 million tonnes, though the two-month average dipped 12% on high prices. For oil year 2025–26, imports are projected at 16.5 million tonnes against domestic output of 9.6 million tonnes.

On composition, Shah said will hold resilient, may face delays due to supply disruptions, and will dominate the basket thanks to cost advantages. Post-April 2026, soybean and palm oil will compete for India’s share, with Chinese soybean oil making a notable entry.

India, which relies on imports for about 60% of its edible oil consumption, remains the largest structural demand hub globally. Shah stressed that edible oils must be viewed through the lens of , as rising biofuel linkages mean fuel price rallies now trigger synchronous increases in edible oil prices.

She highlighted government efforts toward self-reliance, including national missions on oil palm and oilseeds, MSP enhancement, and diversification strategies backed by $2.5 billion in commitments. “A maturing policy outlay will dictate import patterns and price trajectories ahead amid ongoing geopolitical tensions,” she said, adding that India has acted decisively to secure supplies, contain inflation, and ensure stability.

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