Subdued profits, moderate rise in costs, low sales: IIM-A surveys 1200 executives

By A Representative 

The Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) of the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) has said that about 54% of the firms are still reporting ‘somewhat less than normal’ or lower sales during March-June 2024, even as pointing out, "Overall, the profit margins expectations remained subdue."

BIES claims to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders from 1,200 companies about year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc. 

The survey, says the IIM-A, is unique in that it goes straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes. 

"One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus get a measure of uncertainty It also provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy", it contends. 

Conducted monthly at the Misra Centre for Financial Markets and Economy, IIM-A, most companies were selected primarily from the manufacturing sector. 

According to the survey, the cost perceptions data in June 2024 indicate moderate increase in cost pressures, although the percentage of firms perceiving very significant cost increase (over 10%) in June 2024 has declined marginally to 13%, from around 14% reported in May 2024.

The percentage of firms reporting moderate to significant cost increase (3.1% to 10.0%) has increased significantly to 49% in June 2024, from 41% reported in May 2024, it added.

"The sales expectations scenario during February-June 2024 remained unchanged. About 46% of the firms are reporting normal and above sales", the survey noted, adding, "About 54% of the firms are still reporting ‘somewhat less than normal’ or lower sales during March-June 2024."

Finally, the survey said, "About 59% of the firms are reporting ‘somewhat less than normal’ or lower profits during May-June 2024", adding, "Overall, the profit margins expectations remained subdued in June 2024."