Modi hasn’t paid ‘sufficient attention' to population density issue in India

 
By  NS Venkataraman* 

In the year 2024, India has “achieved”  the status of being the most populated country   in the world, with   India’s population constituting  17.76% of the global population.  India’s population is still increasing and  some experts are of the view that India’s population may well touch 2000  million   by the year  2050, from the present population of   around 1440  million. 

India’s population in the year 1950 was 359 million.  It  increased  to around 1440 million in January, 2024. India’s population in the year January 2024 increased by 13 million people over the same period in the  year 2023.

Some people argue that  this situation may not be alarming,  since India gains demographic advantages but more discerning observers are of the view that this could be a demographic drag,  that would   pose  serious economic and social challenges for India that may even lead to destabilize the society to some extent.

While India’s population density  is 438.58 people per sq km with land area of 3,287,263 sq km,    the US population is 340 million in land area of  9,372,610 sq km with population density of 34.7  people per square kilometer. Some people are of the view that if only India have half the population that it now has,  India may have nearly matched USA in economic and industrial growth profile.

While one cannot be too sure about this view  since there are so many  other factors influencing the growth profile of any country,  there is no doubt that growth of Indian population level has nullified the positive effects of several economic and industrial progress that India has achieved in the last 75 years after independence. 

Of course,  India’s agricultural and industrial production  have significantly increased that has ensured that there would not be any food scarcity in the country. At the same time,  around 15% of Indian population still lives below poverty line and around 40% of Indian population live only at marginally above the poverty line.

India’s concern

When the country becomes so much over populated, it has become impossible to generate adequate employment opportunity, resulting in joblessness and under employment.  It is a well known saying that an idle brain is a devil’s workshop.  

The  unemployment level would inevitably lead to social restlessness that would be caused by unequal distribution of income and opportunities and denial of rights to people to  engage  themselves profitably. It is also well known that work provide meaning for life  of people.

During the last ten years of governance in India under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi there has been considerable progress in infrastructure and industrial production.

But, this has not led to job opportunities  which are required by  millions of people  in India.  In other words, growth has taken place with the growth profile unable to contribute to employment generation in very large scale.

In the coming years, with technology developments such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots making  rapid advances,  the manpower requirement for conducting work are likely to reduce drastically, as automation and robotics with technology inputs by artificial intelligence schemes are necessary to improve efficiency in work and output at globally competitive standards.

People going abroad for jobs is not so much from India, but may reach alarming levels  in the coming years because of joblessness

Huge population also lead to emission issues  that cause global warming.  With billions of humans  exhaling carbon dioxide with every breath,  it really starts to add up to global emission. In one day, the average person breathes out around 500 litres of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide which amounts to around 1 kg in mass.  

With population increase remaining unchecked, India will be a significant contributor to the global emission of carbon dioxide due to huge population.  In this context, it is strange that India has offered zero emission level by the year 2070, especially in the use of fossil fuels  and methane emission from livestock  but has not considered the emission of carbon dioxide by humans in India, which may reach size of 2000 million people by the year 2050.

Why global concern

While economic growth and industrial growth are being targeted by Indian government, it is finding it impossible to provide employment opportunities at the scale required. In such circumstances, it is inevitable that  unemployed or even Indians  with low skill would  try to migrate to other developed countries with low population density.    

This will create demographic disturbance in these countries and India would be accused as one of the countries causing such migration influx and creating problems in other countries.

Such situation is already happening in European countries,  USA and Canada.  Though at present, the migrant population  going to these countries  is not so much from India,  it may reach alarming level  in the coming years.

A large country like India with huge population and large scale  unemployment level that would cause social unrest to some extent can be a matter of global concern. Sometime back, a former US President made  what looked like an unwise remark that Indians eat too much that has caused world food shortage. 

Certainly, this statement of former US President is obnoxious, since Indians do not eat too much.   However, it  reminds one of the problems that would be caused  by over populated  large country  like India.

It is a fact that during the last ten years of governance, Prime Minister Modi has not paid sufficient attention to the population density issue in India and steady growth of population. Modi has appointed a committee was appointed to study this aspect.  

One  hopes that during the third term Modi, he will highlight this problem and take some  measures to curb the population growth to the extent possible.

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 *Trustee, Nandini Voice For The Deprived, Chennai