Skip to main content

Urban unemployment in India rose from 4.7% first quarter to 6.6% last quarter, 2017-18; jobs declined: CMIE-BSE

By Our Representative
A recent survey by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India's leading business information company, in partnership with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), has said that the unemployment rate in the country's urban areas in the four quarters of 2017-18 has risen steadily -- from 4.7 per cent in the first quarter to 5 per cent then 5.7 per cent and finally 6.6 per cent in the last quarter.
Claiming to be the producer of "high quality, fast frequency employment/ unemployment statistics", with a sample size that is "larger than that deployed by the Government of India's top data collecting centre, National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), the CMIE-BSE survey has also found that rural unemployment too has been rising.
"It was 3.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18 and then it was 3.6 per cent in the second quarter. Then it rose to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter and finally to 5.4 per cent in the last quarter", an analysis, carried out by top CMIE functionary Mahesh Vyas, has revealed.
According to Vyas, "The overall unemployment rate has risen from 4 per cent in the first quarter to 4.1 per cent in the second, 4.9 per cent in the third and then 5.8 per cent in the last quarter. During the last quarter, the unemployment rate increased steadily from 5 per cent in January 2018 to 6.1 per cent in February to 6.3 per cent in March 2018."
Ironically, the unemployment estimates come alongside well-known Indian English writer Chetan Bhagat, known to for his pro-Narendra Modi stances, reporting the results of what are called "yuppy survey" using his Twitter handle, which found that 87 per cent of the 20,000 respondents said it was ‘difficult’ to ‘very difficult’ to find a job.
Bhagat's "yuppy survey" further revealed that 61 per cent of the respondents said they expected anywhere between Rs 5,000 to Rs 15,000 a month. Referring to Bhagat's survey, the CMIE analyst says, "Chetan takes care to qualify that this is not a scientific survey. But, the sample size is large enough for more than just a dekko." He asks, "Where has the aspirational young Indian of 2014 vanished?"
Even as pointing out that the CMIE-BSE estimates of the last quarter are preliminary, Vyas says, "These will be finalised in the middle of May 2018 to account for non-responses", though historically, these revisions have been small and do not make any material difference to the broad inferences." He insists, "And the inference is clear -- that unemployment is rising and jobs are not."
Providing "preliminary estimations", the top analyst says, these suggest that "jobs did not increase during 2017-18 compared to 2016-17". These have declined from 406.7 million in fiscal 2016-17 to 407 million in fiscal 2017-18 -- a fall of about 0.7 million, or seven lakh, in a year, suggesting that the Government of India claims about rise in employment opportunities are not true.
CMIE-BSE estimates come even as the Government of India is all set to launch its enterprise survey to measure employment in medium, small and micro enterprises, with a special focus on the unorganised sector, i.e. enterprises that employ less than 10 workers. To be conducted by the Labour Bureau, it will use the 2013-14 Economic Census as its base.
While the results of the survey are expected by late 2018 or early 2019, ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the CMIE analyst says, an enterprise survey may be useful to understand the distribution of employment by industry, by type of organisation of employment (public sector, private sector, etc) or nature of employment (part-time, full-time, permanent or temporary).
But he adds, it "cannot provide any estimate of the unemployment rate or the number of unemployed persons, which is our biggest challenge. A measure of the unemployment rate or the number of unemployed persons can only be found by conducting a household survey based on a large and representative sample."
Pointing out that the enterprise survey "is not an Economic Census either", Vyas says, "Given that an Economic Census is supposed to be conducted every five years and the last one was done in 2013-14, a new Economic Census is due now. But, how does that fit into this survey of the unorganised sector? The motivation for the new survey is that the government hopes to show that employment has increased in the unorganised sector."

Comments

Mitul said…
Joblessness wil be the sole opposition party in 2019
Anonymous said…
When unemployment is high we don’t look at another genuine problem of under employment. Those employed are unable to earn $2/head/day for each member of their families. India is survived because of the informal sector.

TRENDING

Communal rhetoric? Hindutva preached by RSS-BJP is 'monolithic', not Hinduism

By Prem Verma*  I am a devout Hindu but not a believer of RSS Hindutva form of Hinduism which brings about hatred of other religions. My Hindu religion has not taught me to look down on other religions and neither has it instilled in me to go about converting others to my religion because my religion is superior.

Gross 'injustice' to children: Rs 5000 cr cut in education budget; 15 lakh schools shut down

Counterview Desk  More than 100 dignitaries, including educationists, academia, social activists, teachers’ union, civil society organisations (CSOs), various networks and people working on child rights, in a letter to Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman have sought reversal of reduction in allocation for education in the Union Budget 2021-22, even as demanding substantial increase in it.

India sees 62 journo deaths, 4th highest, amidst pandemic: Swiss media rights body

By Our Representative The Switzerland-based media rights body Press Emblem Campaign (PEC) has noted that India is the fourth most affected country as far as mediapersons’ death on account of Covid-19 is concerned. According to Blaise Lempen, secretary-general of PEC, the global tally of casualties among media persons in the Covid-19 pandemic has reached 1,036 journalists in 73 countries till date.

Buddhist shrines massively destroyed by Brahmanical rulers in "pre-Islamic" era: Historian DN Jha's survey

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

RSS love for 'killer' Myanmar junta behind Indian military presence at Tatmadaw Day?

By Shamsul Islam*  If a shameful act means an action which is criminal and nauseating, it would be an understatement to describe the attitude of the present RSS-BJP rulers of India towards the demolition of democracy and large-scale killing of the people of Myanmar by the military ( tatmadaw ) junta which took power through a coup on February 1, 2021 after renegading the election results in which the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, National League for Democracy, was a clear winner.

Chhattisgarh’s Apra riverfront imitates Sabarmati: 'Devaluing' water, environment

Sabarmati riverfront By Mansee Bal Bhargava*  This year’s #WorldWaterDay (March 22) focus was on ‘Valuing Water’. My school friend, Pragati Tiwari from Bilaspur, Chhattisgarh, called that day knowing my interest in water matters. We were remembering our childhood days as how we used to play on the banks and the bed of the Arpa Nadi (River) during the summer holidays and as how the river would swell like Anaconda to flow happily during the monsoon.

Bihar massacre on Holi day: Brahminical, casteist mindset behind 'uneasy' silence

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  Several people were killed in Bihar amidst Holi festivities, but not much response has come in from the media. The silence of the government and the society as a whole is also appalling. We seek to romanticise these festivals, yet we forget that every year they take so many lives. This despite the fact that Holi appears to be the best time for 'avenging things'.

India's draft migrants policy: Whither concern on job restrictions imposed by states?

By Anil Kumar*  India’s Niti Aayog has prepared a Draft Migration Policy. The draft policy acknowledges migration as an integral part of development, and it calls for positive government interventions that facilitate internal migration. With a rights-based solution to migration, the draft states that the policy should “enhance the agency and capability of the community and thereby remove aspects that come in the way of an individual’s own natural ability to thrive”.

Recalling Jallianwala martyrs' communal amity as BJP 'warns' of Sitalkuchi everywhere

By Shamsul Islam*  The RSS-BJP rulers declare India to be a battle-ground between Hinduism and Islam. Muslims have been declared as ‘internal threat’ by RSS ideologue MS Golwalkar (“Bunch of Thought”, Chapter xvi). Behaviour of many of their leading cadres, including those who hold high constitutional posts, is such that they seem to be conspiring over-time to ignite a civil war between the two communities. They are under the impression that this would help divert attention from failures of the Hindutva rulers on developmental front.