Skip to main content

Gujarat urban upsurge leads to absolute rise in poverty despite high growth rate

By Rajiv Shah 
Not that economists have not noticed urban poverty in Gujarat; but they have focused on urban Gujarat in passing. For instance, there is a calculation that the percentage of urban poverty in Gujarat during the second half of the decade ending 2010 has gone down by 2.2 per cent, from 20.1 per cent to 17.9 per cent. Which means, the annual poverty reduction in the state has been just about 0.44 per cent. Notably, this is lower than a dozen out of 20 major states, including Madhya Pradesh, which saw a whopping 12.2 per cent reduction in urban poverty, followed by Orissa (11.7), Rajasthan (9.8), Maharashtra (7.3), Tamil Nadu (6.9), Karnataka (6.3), Kerala (6.3), Andhra Pradesh (5.7), Chhattisgarh (4.6), Bihar (4.3), Uttar Pradesh (2.4) and West Bengal (2.4). The all-India average percentage in poverty reduction is 4.6. Obviously, huge investments and a high growth rate have not helped Gujarat’s downtrodden sections, in any way.
In fact, one economist has calculated, in absolute terms, the number or urban poor in Gujarat has gone up 4.3 million in 2004-05 and 4.5 million in 2009-10. This should be worrisome for Gujarat, which is already the fastest urbanizing state of India. According to the latest Census of India data, Gujarat experienced a whopping 35.83 per cent rate of growth in urban population between 2001 and 2011. Currently, 42.6 per cent of the state’s population lives in urban areas, next to Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Yet, there has been little or no analysis on the impact of the drastic change in the state’s urban demography on overall social, economic and cultural scenario. Not that the Gujarat government is not aware of it. A government document, presented at the Chintan Shibir, a bureaucratic conclave, in early 2011, “records” the following as a fact: “While nutrition indicators appear worse in rural areas (48 per cent) compared to urban areas (39 per cent), the urban poor are at an equivalent disadvantage compared to rural populace and much worse than their affluent urban neighbours… Among urban poor, under-five under-nutrition is 56 per cent against 36 per cent among urban non-poor.”
Even then, National Sample Survey (NSS) data, released in September-October 2012, provide some indication of the status of different social groups in urban areas in Gujarat – scheduled tribes (STs), scheduled castes (SCs), other backward classes (OBCs) and others (mainly upper castes) – as to where things stand for each of them. NSS data (which are the most authoritative figures in the absence of Census of India figures) suggest that 75.7 per cent of urban ST households, 79.6 per cent SC households, 51.5 OBC households and 51.7 “other” households depend either on wages/ salaries or casual labour for their survival. As many as 19.7 per cent ST households, 18.2 per cent SC households, 44 per cent OBC households and 41.3 per cent “other” households are found to be“self-employed”. From available indications, this is not very different than most other states. However, when it comes to purchasing power in the urban areas, calculated as monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE), one gets a totally different story.
The picture that one gets is quite interesting picture, suggesting, that it is the SC households whose MPCE in urban Gujarat is worse than any other category. The SC households’ MPCE is Rs 1,292 as against the ST households’ Rs 1,624, OBCs households’ Rs 1,457, and “other’” households’ Rs 2,343. The average MPCE in urban Gujarat for all social groups is found to be Rs 1,909, which is lower than the national average of Rs 1,984. Gujarat’s average MPCE is worse than most major states, including Andhra Pradesh (Rs 2,238), Haryana (Rs 2,321), Himachal Pradesh (Rs 2,654), Karnataka (Rs 2,053), Kerala (Rs 2,413), Punjab (Rs 2,109), Tamil Nadu (Rs 1,948), Maharashtra (Rs 2,437), and West Bengal (Rs 1,965). But when it comes to SC households, the situation vis-vis other states is even worse. SCs’ MPCE (at Rs 1,292) is worse than Andhra Pradesh (Rs 1,757), Chhattisgarh (1,376), Haryana (Rs 1,429), Himachal Pradesh (Rs 1,553), Jammu & Kashmir (Rs 1,781), Karnataka (Rs 1,637), Kerala (Rs 1,709), Maharashtra (Rs 1,709), Punajb (Rs 1,462), Rajasthan (Rs 1,229) , Uttarakhand (Rs 1,371), and West Bengal (Rs 1,296). The national average for SC households is Rs 1,444. What is equally interesting is that, for the other three category of social groups, too, Gujarat’s MPCE is worse than the national average. Urban Gujarat’s ST households’ MPCE is Rs 1,624, as against the national average of Rs 1,797; it is Rs 1,457 for OBC households, as against the national average of Rs 1,679. And for “others”, as against Gujarat’s Rs 2343, the national average is Rs 2467.
The MPCE of SC wage/salary earning households is found to be Rs 1,437, but of casual workers (who account for 27 per cent of the total SC households) it is extremely low, Rs 1,036. The MPCE of casual workers among ST households (forming 21 per cent of total ST households) is found to be Rs 1,132. The OBCs’ MPCE among the casual workers is worse than all, at Rs 1006. As for “others”, their MPCE is Rs 1,222. In fact, figures suggest that there is enough reason for Gujarat’s casual workers to have less purchasing power than most other states. Here, NSS figures provide a very clear picture. Out of a total of 20 major states, casual labour in Gujarat earns on an average Rs 106, which is worse than as many as 14 other state. It is Rs 106 per day for Gujarat’s urban casual labour, as against Andhra Pradesh’s Rs 138, Chhattisarh’s Rs 111, Haryana’s Rs 143, Himachal Pradesh’s Rs 152, J&K’s Rs 150, Karnataka’s Rs 109, Kerala’s Rs 218, Maharashtra’s Rs 110, Punjab’s Rs 139, Rajasthan’s Rs 142, Tamil Nadu’s Rs 138, Uttarakhand’s Rs 136 and Uttar Pradesh’s Rs 107. The all-India average is Rs 121.
These facts are important, particularly if seen in the context of the fact that well-known international agencies are already predicting that Gujarat will be the most urbanized state of India. An authoritative report prepared by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) two years ago, for instance, predicted that by the year 2030, a whopping 66 per cent of Gujarat’s population will start living in urban areas as against 42 per cent reflected in the 2011 Census. While this will make Gujarat as the second most urbanized state, fast catching up with Tamil Nadu, the report suggests that this will happen because the rate of growth of urbanization in Gujarat in the next two decades will be higher than any other state.
Called “India’s Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, sustaining economic growth”, the MGI report says that the states that exhibit higher gross domestic product (GDP) rates also will experience higher urbanization rates in the next two decades. The top consultants say, there is enough reason to conjecture as to why the rate of urbanization will be so high, indeed higher than any other state. In the last two decades Gujarat’s GDP grew at the compound annual growth of 7.5-8 per cent, in 2010-2030, it predicts, it will increase to 8- 8.5 per cent, higher than any major state.
An analysis of how major cities of India will develop over the next two decades, the MGI report states, Ahmedabad, which will have a population of 8.4 million in 2030, will also be one of the richest Indian cities, having per capita GDP of 8,100 dollars, next only to Delhi (11,400 dollars), Bangalore (12,600 dollars) and – interestingly – Vadodara (8,500 dollars). Counted at 2008 prices, all other major cities, including Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad and Pune will have lower per capita GDP. AT the same time, the report believes that Gujarat’s cities would need massive investments, more than most other cities, to upgrade their infrastructure to meet city needs. At 2008 prices, by 2030, Ahmedabad would need 246 dollars per capita investment, Surat 235 dollars and Vadodara 263 dollars. This is against 124 dollars per capita needed for the country. “More than half of the capital expenditure is necessary to erase infrastructure backlog and the rest to fund cities’ future needs”, the report underlines.

Comments

TRENDING

Right-arm fast bowler who helped West Indies shape arguably greatest Test team in cricket history

By Harsh Thakor*  Malcolm Marshall redefined what it meant to be a right-arm fast bowler, challenging the traditional laws of biomechanics with his unique skill. As we remember his 25th death anniversary on November 4th, we reflect on the legacy he left behind after his untimely death from colon cancer. For a significant part of his career, Marshall was considered one of the fastest and most formidable bowlers in the world, helping to shape the West Indies into arguably the greatest Test team in cricket history.

Andhra team joins Gandhians to protest against 'bulldozer action' in Varanasi

By Rosamma Thomas*  November 1 marked the 52nd day of the 100-day relay fast at the satyagraha site of Rajghat in Varanasi, seeking the restoration of the 12 acres of land to the Sarva Seva Sangh, the Gandhian organization that was evicted from the banks of the river. Twelve buildings were demolished as the site was abruptly taken over by the government after “bulldozer” action in August 2023, even as the matter was pending in court.  

Outreach programme in medical education: Band-aids for compound fractures

By Amitav Banerjee, MD*  Recently, the National Medical Commission (NMC) of India, introduced two curricular changes in medical education, both at the undergraduate and the postgraduate levels, ostensibly to offer opportunities for quality medical education and to improve health care accessibility among the underserved rural and urban population.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah  The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Will Left victory in Sri Lanka deliver economic sovereignty plan, go beyond 'tired' IMF agenda?

By Atul Chandra, Vijay Prashad*  On September 22, 2024, the Sri Lankan election authority announced that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance won the presidential election. Dissanayake, who has been the leader of the left-wing JVP since 2014, defeated 37 other candidates, including the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) and his closest challenger Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya. 

Will Bangladesh go Egypt way, where military ruler is in power for a decade?

By Vijay Prashad*  The day after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka, I was on the phone with a friend who had spent some time on the streets that day. He told me about the atmosphere in Dhaka, how people with little previous political experience had joined in the large protests alongside the students—who seemed to be leading the agitation. I asked him about the political infrastructure of the students and about their political orientation. He said that the protests seemed well-organized and that the students had escalated their demands from an end to certain quotas for government jobs to an end to the government of Sheikh Hasina. Even hours before she left the country, it did not seem that this would be the outcome.

Are Kashmir's porous borders turning region into 'convenient entry point' for drugs flowing into India?

By Raqif Makhdoomi*  Drug addiction has become a serious problem, affecting not only Kashmir but communities worldwide. In the shadowy world of drug trafficking, vast networks and powerful organizations play pivotal roles. These criminal enterprises, often bolstered by influential backers, operate with impunity, profiting from human suffering. For those able to evade law enforcement, drug trafficking can lead to staggering wealth; even at a local level, small-time peddlers can earn substantial sums. Despite international efforts to curb this menace, the drug syndicate is highly complex, eluding even the most determined governmental crackdowns due to its global reach and the powerful networks that support it.

How Hindu festivals are being 'misused' to incite violence and hatred

By Ram Puniyani*  Communal violence has long plagued Indian society, intensifying over the past decades. In pre-colonial times, such conflicts were rare and mostly ethnic, but under British rule, communal violence took root as a more frequent occurrence. The British promoted a divisive view of history, interpreting events through the religious identities of rulers, which fueled the rise of communal ideologies in both Hindu and Muslim communities. These narratives fostered a "social common sense" that exploited religion to incite conflict. Over the last 30 years, scholars, journalists, and researchers have worked to understand how communal groups have found new ways to instigate violence, particularly targeting the majority Hindu community.