Indians are the largest recipients of H-1B visas. Between October 2022 and September 2023, Indian citizens received approximately 72.3% of all H-1B visas issued by the US. This means that out of every 100 visas, around 70-75 go to Indians.
However, the number of visa approvals is declining. Compared to 2023, the number of approvals for Indians in 2024-25 has fallen by about 28 to 37%. There has been a significant drop in the number of applications being approved.
For fiscal year 2026, there has been a sharp decline in H-1B visa registrations. The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services received about 358,000 registrations in fiscal year 2026, a much lower number than in previous years. This suggests that the new rules and increased costs are discouraging applicants.
Based on this data, the following estimations can be made about how many Indians might be affected:
A large increase in visa fees, especially for companies and individuals with fewer resources or those who are entry-level, could lead to fewer applications. This particularly impacts those who apply every year for master's degrees. The reduced chance of selection will also increase competition.
Stricter laws and regulations will affect both large and small companies, but the impact will be more significant on small and medium-sized service providers, potentially reducing job opportunities. Some employers may shift their focus to local hiring instead of foreign workers.
Changes in the total visa quota or country cap could result in many Indians who are ready to apply or have been waiting for years not receiving a visa. This will make the chances of getting a visa even more difficult. The annual cap for H-1B visas is about 85,000, with 65,000 for the general category and 20,000 for the master's category. Currently, Indians receive more than 60,000 visas per year. If the approval rate or number of applications drops by 30 to 40%, approximately 20,000-25,000 Indian applicants could be affected annually because they won't get a visa. This number could be even higher—30,000 to 40,000 or more—if fees are too high and the quota or rules become very strict.
In fiscal year 2024-25, the total remittances sent to India by Indians working in various countries was approximately ₹11.93 lakh crore. Out of this, remittances from Indians living in the US alone were ₹3.30 lakh crore. This is a significant source of income for India, as a portion of the income of non-resident Indians is sent back to the country. Experts believe that a tightening of H-1B policies could lead to a decrease of approximately ₹33,000 to 49,500 crore in remittances from the US to India.
The US has a shortage of local talent in many high-tech, engineering, and medical fields. The H-1B visa program provides access to skilled engineers, doctors, scientists, and IT professionals from around the world, especially from India and China. H-1B visa holders have played a crucial role in the American startup ecosystem and at major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. Google's CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella are both of Indian origin and started their careers on H-1B visas. These professionals pay taxes, increase consumption, and contribute to the US economy. American companies get affordable and qualified employees, which reduces their costs and increases their profits. Bringing in global talent keeps American companies at the forefront of innovation and technological competition.
However, a section of US citizens argues that professionals on H-1B visas take jobs away from American citizens. Local workers, especially in the IT and programming sectors, have to compete with them. Sometimes, companies hire visa workers at a relatively lower salary, which slows down wage growth for American employees. Indian IT companies (Infosys, TCS, Wipro, etc.) use H-1B visas on a large scale. There are accusations in American politics that they bypass American workers by bringing in cheap labor.
For the US, the H-1B visa is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it strengthens its economy and technological advantage. On the other, it creates concerns about local American jobs and wages. Therefore, the US government often introduces reforms and changes, such as the lottery system, fee increases, salary standards, and restrictions on employers. Social, political, and legal challenges are growing. The visa makes the employee dependent on the employer. Sometimes, companies take advantage of this by overworking employees or limiting their job freedom.
The "America First" policy has continuously targeted the H-1B visa, as it is seen as a threat to American jobs. However, in reality, it is also essential for American technology and innovation. Therefore, the US uses it in a balanced way and does not completely shut it down, but it brings in strict rules to show that its first priority is jobs for American citizens.
The "America First" policy and changes to the H-1B policy will have a deep impact on India, as Indians have been the biggest beneficiaries of the program. The Indian government has repeatedly urged the US to adopt a more liberal stance on the H-1B policy concerning Indian professionals.
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*Bargi Dam Displaced and Affected Association
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