Skip to main content

Urgency for next pandemic? But Mr Health Secretary, you're barking up wrong tree

By Dr Amitav Banerjee, MD* 

The Union Health Secretary, Mr Rajesh Bhushan addressing the Health Working Group of G20 India, at Hyderabad on 05 June 2023, cautioned that the next pandemic would not wait for us to make global treaties and called on countries to work together.
He upped the alarm level, saying that billions of lives and livelihoods will be at stake; hence we must act with a sense of urgency. Seconding him, Michael Ryan, the WHO spokesperson, said that it is time countries came together to ensure that drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics reached those who needed them the most.
Which drugs? Which vaccines? Which diagnostics? Which disease? Neither he nor our honourable health secretary specified. Without naming any specific disease which can have pandemic potential, Mr Ryan continued to elaborate on India’s pharmaceuticals manufacturing base and innovations in digital technology. Meanwhile our health secretary seems eager to promote the “Pandemic Treaty” which has provision for control of misinformation and censorship. To fight against unknown “deadlier pandemics.”
Drugs, vaccines, diagnostics, pharma industry and digital technology. This is the strategy of the pandemic generals on a war footing! Like military generals demanding for modernization of the armed forces for imminent war by stressing on ammunition, guns, artillery, battle tanks, arms industry and radar systems. And of course rumour control and censorship – military matters are top secret. To fight future wars against as yet unknown enemy. This combative philosophy led to a burgeoning arms race. A similar combative philosophy against “deadlier yet unknown pandemics” can lead us into a never-ending and costly pharma race.
The common citizen is dazed into compliance by such sabre-rattling be it against “deadlier pandemics” or “deadlier wars.” And the price of war whether against a mortal enemy or against pandemics are paid by humans by way of collateral harm. The recent pandemic response by way of harsh lockdowns caused much collateral harm with no benefit to the poor citizen. 
A commentary in The Lancet states that Draconian war like measures imperils the life of the poor to save the rich. Lockdowns pushed people to extreme poverty and misery. Child malnutrition and child deaths are predicted to rise exponentially without any fancy models from overrated foreign universities.
No Mr Bhushan, we should not take such war-like measures against an unknown pandemic. The WHO seems to have forgotten that the “H” in its name stands for “Health” which is “...complete, physical, mental and social wellbeing and not merely absence of disease of infirmity,” defined by this very organization! An unknown disease is only one dimension of health. If the physical, mental and social dimensions are addressed future pandemics will have little impact on populations. This is not speculation but borne out by hard data from the recent pandemic.
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the Western countries continued to have 5-10 times higher mortality compared to the Asian and African countries. Most importantly, obesity was the highest driver of mortality, far more than the population level vaccination cover. The obesity rates of the West are almost three times higher than the African and Asian countries. 
Asian and more particularly the African countries in spite of the least vaccination coverage had the least mortality. This observation also finds support from a study across 68 countries and 2947 American counties which failed to find any relationship with population level vaccination and incidence of Covid-19.
Japan has the one of the most aged population in the world, yet it had just about 1/10th of Covid-19 deaths compared to Western countries. The obesity levels of the Western countries are almost 2 to 3 times higher than the Japanese.
Any new infection if it strikes an obese population will have higher impact. Vaccines and diagnostics won't save us
Brazil also drives home the hazards of obesity. In spite of having a younger population, its obesity prevalence is on par with the developed countries. And its mortality rates from the pandemic were also similar to the West. India like Brazil is a fast growing economy. While its obesity has yet to catch up with the West, the middle class Indian is well on its way to obesity and may soon reach there.
Well Mr Bhushan, the silent pandemic of obesity is ready to strike us soon, particularly among our Westernized middle class aided by market forces. While overall we have a leaner population because of large pool of poor people, there is a tendency for the recently affluent to adopt sedentary lifestyles, fast food, alcohol and smoking. Moreover due to genetic handicap Indians are more prone to diabetes and diseases of coronary heart diseases a decade or two earlier than their Caucasian counterpart. Therefore our obesity criteria have to be more stringent.
To avert the pandemic of obesity crossing into our borders from the West we do not have to check passengers at airports but to educate our people about the hazards of sedentary lifestyles and fast foods and create an enabling environment for cyclists and pedestrians rather than introducing more vehicles on crowded and ill maintained Indian roads. We have the highest road traffic accidents in the world with over 400 mostly young people dying daily on Indian roads. Would you not call it a pandemic?
More than 5000 children die in India every day due to preventable causes against a background of one of the highest rates of child malnutrition in the world. Daily, over 1300 die from tuberculosis in India. Would you not call these pandemics?
We have other unidentified “pandemics” in our own country such as dengue, typhoid, Japanese Encephalitis, and so on which we cannot quantify as data keeping of these “mundane” diseases have no glamour and therefore not carried out with the same gusto as any “new and deadlier pandemic” imported from abroad.
We have our plates full, Mr Bhushan. Any new infection if it strikes an obese population will have higher impact. Vaccines and diagnostics will not save us. We have a window of opportunity to prevent obesity taking roots in our country like it has in the West. If we have to check entry into our borders it should not be by way of restricting people but by way of restricting fast food chains.
Why prepare for an unknown deadlier pandemic when there are so many far more deadlier diseases in our own country.
You are barking up the wrong, rather, non-existent tree!
---
*Post doctoral in epidemiology who was a field epidemiologist for over two decades in the Indian Armed Forces. He was awarded for his work on Tribal Malaria and Viral Hepatitis E. He is currently Professor at DY Patil Medical College. Pune

Comments

TRENDING

The soundtrack of resistance: How 'Sada Sada Ya Nabi' is fueling the Iran war

​ By Syed Ali Mujtaba*  ​The Persian track “ Sada Sada Ya Nabi ye ” by Hossein Sotoodeh has taken the world by storm. This viral media has cut across linguistic barriers to achieve cult status, reaching over 10 million views. The electrifying music and passionate rendition by the Iranian singer have resonated across the globe, particularly as the high-intensity military conflict involving Iran entered its second month in March 2026.

Lata Mangeshkar, a Dalit from Devdasi family, 'refused to sing a song' about Ambedkar

By Pramod Ranjan*  An artist is known and respected for her art. But she is equally, or even more so known and respected for her social concerns. An artist's social concerns or in other words, her worldview, give a direction and purpose to her art. History remembers only such artists whose social concerns are deep, reasoned and of durable importance. Lata Mangeshkar (28 September 1929 – 6 February 2022) was a celebrated playback singer of the Hindi film industry. She was the uncrowned queen of Indian music for over seven decades. Her popularity was unmatched. Her songs were heard and admired not only in India but also in Pakistan, Bangladesh and many other South Asian countries. In this article, we will focus on her social concerns. Lata lived for 92 long years. Music ran in her blood. Her father also belonged to the world of music. Her two sisters, Asha Bhonsle and Usha Mangeshkar, are well-known singers. Lata might have been born in Indore but the blood of a famous Devdasi family...

'Batteries now cheap enough for solar to meet India's 90% demand': Expert quotes Ember study

By A Representative   Shankar Sharma, Power & Climate Policy Analyst, has urged India’s top policymakers to reconsider the financial and ecological implications of the country’s energy transition strategy in light of recent global developments. In a letter dated April 10, 2026, addressed to the Union Ministers of Finance, Power, New & Renewable Energy, Environment, Forest & Climate Change, and the Vice Chair of NITI Aayog, with a copy to the Prime Minister, Sharma highlighted concerns over India’s ambitious plans for coal gasification and the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR).

Manufacturing, services: India's low-skill, middle-skill labour remains underemployed

By Francis Kuriakose* The Indian economy was in a state of deceleration well before Covid-19 made its impact in early 2020. This can be inferred from the declining trends of four important macroeconomic variables that indicate the health of the economy in the last quarter of 2019.

Incarceration of Prof Saibaba 'revives' the question: What is crime, who is criminal?

By Kunal Pant* In 2016, a Supreme Court Judge asked the state of Maharashtra, “Do you want to extract a pound of flesh?” The statement was directed against the state for contesting the bail plea of Delhi University Professor GN Saibaba. Saibaba was arrested in 2014, a justification for which was to prevent him from committing what the police called “anti-national activities.”

Food security? Gujarat govt puts more than 5 lakh ration cards in the 'silent' category

By Pankti Jog* A new statistical report uploaded by the Gujarat government on the national food security portal shows that ensuring food security for the marginalized community is still not a priority of the state. The statistical report, uploaded on December 24, highlights many weaknesses in implementing the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in state.

Why Indo-Pak relations have been on 'knife’s edge' , hostilities may remain for long

By Utkarsh Bajpai*  The past few decades have seen strides being made in all aspects of life – from sticks and stones to weaponry. The extreme case of this phenomenon has been nuclear weapons. The menace caused by nuclear weapons in the past is unforgettable. Images of Hiroshima and Nagasaki from 1945 come to mind, after the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the cities.

Subaltern voices go digital: Three Indian projects rewriting history from the ground up

By A Representative   A new wave of digital humanities (DH) work in India is shifting the focus away from university classrooms and English-language scholarship, instead prioritizing multilingual, community-driven archives that amplify subaltern voices . According to a review published in the Journal of Asian Studies , projects such as the People’s Archive of Rural India (PARI), the Oral History Narmada archive , and the Bhasha Research and Publication Centre are redefining how the country remembers its past — often without government funding or institutional support.

Beyond Lata: How Asha Bhosle redefined the female voice with her underrated versatility

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  The news of iconic Asha Bhosle’s ‘untimely’ demise has shocked music lovers across the country. Asha Tai was 92 years young. Normally, people celebrate a passing at this age, but Asha Bhosle—much like another legend, Dev Anand—never made us feel she was growing old. She was perhaps the most versatile artist in Bombay cinema. Hailing from a family devoted to music, Asha’s journey to success and fame was not easy. Her elder sister, Lata Mangeshkar, had already become the voice of women in cinema, and most contemporaries like Shamshad Begum, Suraiya, and Noor Jehan had slowly faded into oblivion. Frankly, there was no second or third to Lata Mangeshkar; she became the first—and perhaps the only—choice for music directors and all those who mattered in filmmaking. Asha started her musical journey at age 10 with a Marathi film, but her first break in Hindustani cinema came with the film "Chunariya" (1948). Though she was not the first choice of ...