Skip to main content

Clear signs of Indian economy slowing down, says latest IIM-A business expectation survey

By Our Representative 

The latest Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad’s (IIM-A’s) Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) has said that while one year ahead business inflation expectation has remained steady around 4.70% during September-November 2022, there have been “clear signs of the economy slowing down”. 
According to a BIES note, “Firms’ sales expectations have subdued. With moderation in sales expectations, profit margins expectations have deteriorated sharply.”
BIES claims to provide ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders about their inflation expectations in the short and medium term. The survey asks questions about year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc.
The survey is called “unique”, in that it goes straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes. “One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus get a measure of uncertainty. It also provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy”, the note says.
Stating that results of the survey are “useful in understanding the inflation expectations of businesses and complement other macro data required for policy making”, as companies are selected primarily from the manufacturing sector, with responses of around 1,000 companies, the note says, “The distribution of responses on y-o-y cost increase during September-November 2022 indicates the mode to be stabilizing around 5-6%.”
A monthly survey, it adds, “The percentage of firms perceiving over 10% cost increase y-o-y has further declined. Over 17% of the firms in November 2022 round of the survey perceive that costs have increased very significantly (over 10%) – down from 19% recorded in October 2022.”
It continues, “Firms’ sales expectations have remained subdued. Percentage of firms reporting ‘much less than normal’ sales has sharply increased to 33% in November 2022, from 26% reported in October 2022.Around 22% of the firms in November 2022 report that sales are ‘about normal’, further down from 25% reported in October 2022.”
The note further says, “With moderation in sales expectations, profit margins expectations have deteriorated sharply.” It adds, “Over 40% of the participating firms in November 2022 perceive profit margins are ‘much less than normal’ – significantly up from 30% reported in October 2022.”

Comments

TRENDING

New Odia CM's tribal heritage 'sets him apart' from Hindutva Brahminical norms

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak*  Mohan Charan Majhi took the oath as the new Chief Minister of Odisha following the electoral defeat of the BJD led by Naveen Patnaik, who served as Chief Minister for twenty-four years. The new Chief Minister is the son of a security guard and a four-time MLA who hails from the remote village of Raikala in the Keonjhar district. He belongs to the Santali tribe and comes from a working-class family. Such achievements and political mobilities are possible only in a democratic society. Majhi’s leadership even in the form of symbolic representation in a democracy deserves celebration.

Pellet gun fire severely injures Dalit worker off Bangladesh border

By Kirity Roy*  This is regarding an incident of firing pellets by the Border Security Force (BSF) personnel attached with Panchadoji Border Outpost of ‘E’ Company of 90 BSF Battalion on a Schedule Caste youth of village Parmananda under Dinhata Police Station of Cooch Behar district of West Bengal. The victim was severely injured and one portion of his face became disfigured due to pellet firing by the BSF.

Sanction to persecute Arundhati Roy under UAPA politically motivated: PUCL

Counterview Network  Top human rights group, People’s Union for Civil Liberties, has demanded that the authorities should immediately withdraw the prosecution against top author Arundhati Roy and Dr Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a Kashmir academic, under the " unconstitutional"  Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act  (UAPA), calling the Delhi  Lieutenant-Governor nod for the Delhi police move "politically motivated".

What stops Kavach? Why no time to focus on common trains meant for common people?

By Atanu Roy  A goods train rammed into Kanchenjunga Express on 17th June morning in North Bengal. This could have been averted if the time tested anti-collision system (Kavach) was in place. 

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Lip-service on World Environment Day vs 'watered-down' eco-safeguards

By Shankar Sharma*  Just a few days ago, the world remembered the routinely forgotten global environment on the occasion of World Environment Day, briefly though, maybe just for the day. There were reports of a few high profile ceremonies in different parts of the country, including a few in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly asked the people of our country to plant one tree per each person as a mark of respect/ gratitude for our mothers.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.