Skip to main content

Govt of India's stimulus package grossly inadequate, can't revive economy: Economist

By Dr Arjun Kumar, Ritika Gupta*

Delivering a Special Lecture organized by Centre for Work and Welfare (CWW) at the Impact and Policy Research Institute (IMPRI) on Labour, Employment and Pandemic: Policy Suggestions and Way Forward for Budget 2021, Prof Santosh Mehrotra, retired professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), observed that the fiscal stimulus provided by the Government of India (GoI) post-lockdown was severely inadequate. It was only a fraction of what was provided post the 2008 global financial meltdown where the effects on the economy were comparatively mediocre, he maintains.
Prof Mehrotra stated that while going into the ill-planned lockdown, India already had about 280 million unemployed people. He added that the growth rate of the country was falling quarter by quarter since 2016 and had hit a dismal low of 4.1% in early 2020. The lockdown imposed in March, which is touted as the most stringent in the world by various reports, skyrocketed India’s unemployment rates and contracted the growth rate lower than any other G-20 country, he added.
To revive India’s growth story and to cash in on our rapidly closing demographic dividend window, Prof Mehrotra postulated four essential features that must be included in the Budget 2021. This include an increased expenditure in infrastructure and the health sector and an urban employment guarantee. The fourth most significant measure according to him is a minimum income guarantee of Rs 500 per month to the poor households. 
While Rs 500 per month is equal to what the PM-KISAN offers, where Rs 6,000 per annum is transferred to a farmer household, Prof Mehrotra suggested that since the government accepts this number, it could do well to extend this to the rural poor non-farmer households and urban poor households as well for cash transfer.
He explained, this could be done as a substitute to the PM-KISAN scheme where the benefits would be extended not just to the owner cultivators but also the tenant farmers, landless labourers and the rural and urban poor. The beneficiaries should be identified using the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) data. This will cost the exchequer only about Rs 10,000 crore more than the expenditure on PM-KISAN, estimated Mehrotra.
Prof Dev Nathan dwelled upon the issues in the political economy. He highlighted how there is a historical disparity whereby the focus has been on the hyperscale sector and the rural sector has been given very little.
Panelist Prof Sarthi Acharya, Managing Editor of Indian Journal of Labour Economics (IJLE), highlighted the structural inefficiencies that existed in the economy since 1990’s which has exasperated the effects of the pandemic.
He batted for long-term industrial and agricultural policies and focus on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and value-added exports. He also mooted the need for restarting the 5-year planning model which was also corroborated by Prof Mehrotra.
Panelist Dr Amrita Pillai, research fellow at the The National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), suggested measures that need to be included in the Budget 2021 to give a push to the MSME sector. This included a direct support scheme, extending the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECGLS) and reviewing the compliance requirements for MSME’s to promote ease of doing business.
The session was chaired by Prof Dev Nathan and moderated by Prof Utpal Kumar De, professor at the North-Eastern Hill University (NEHU). Other participants included Prof Abdul Wadud‬, Professor of Rajshahi University, Bangladesh and Prof Elias Hossain from Bangladesh.
---
*With IMPRI. Acknowledgement: Nikhil Jacob, based in Goa, research intern at IMPRI, New Delhi, pursuing post-graduate diploma in environmental law and policy from the National Law University, Delhi

Comments

TRENDING

Whither space for the marginalised in Kerala's privately-driven townships after landslides?

By Ipshita Basu, Sudheesh R.C.  In the early hours of July 30 2024, a landslide in the Wayanad district of Kerala state, India, killed 400 people. The Punjirimattom, Mundakkai, Vellarimala and Chooralmala villages in the Western Ghats mountain range turned into a dystopian rubble of uprooted trees and debris.

Advocacy group decries 'hyper-centralization' as States’ share of health funds plummets

By A Representative   In a major pre-budget mobilization, the Jan Swasthya Abhiyan (JSA), India’s leading public health advocacy network, has issued a sharp critique of the Union government’s health spending and demanded a doubling of the health budget for the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year. 

Iswar Chandra Vidyasagar’s views on religion as Tagore’s saw them

By Harasankar Adhikari   Religion has become a visible subject in India’s public discourse, particularly where it intersects with political debate. Recent events, including a mass Gita chanting programme in Kolkata and other incidents involving public expressions of faith, have drawn attention to how religion features in everyday life. These developments have raised questions about the relationship between modern technological progress and traditional religious practice.

Election bells ringing in Nepal: Can ousted premier Oli return to power?

By Nava Thakuria*  Nepal is preparing for a national election necessitated by the collapse of KP Sharma Oli’s government at the height of a Gen Z rebellion (youth uprising) in September 2025. The polls are scheduled for 5 March. The Himalayan nation last conducted a general election in 2022, with the next polls originally due in 2027.  However, following the dissolution of Nepal’s lower house of Parliament last year by President Ram Chandra Poudel, the electoral process began under the patronage of an interim government installed on 12 September under the leadership of retired Supreme Court judge Sushila Karki. The Hindu-majority nation of over 29 million people will witness more than 3,400 electoral candidates, including 390 women, representing 68 political parties as well as independents, vying for 165 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives.

Jayanthi Natarajan "never stood by tribals' rights" in MNC Vedanta's move to mine Niyamigiri Hills in Odisha

By A Representative The Odisha Chapter of the Campaign for Survival and Dignity (CSD), which played a vital role in the struggle for the enactment of historic Forest Rights Act, 2006 has blamed former Union environment minister Jaynaynthi Natarjan for failing to play any vital role to defend the tribals' rights in the forest areas during her tenure under the former UPA government. Countering her recent statement that she rejected environmental clearance to Vendanta, the top UK-based NMC, despite tremendous pressure from her colleagues in Cabinet and huge criticism from industry, and the claim that her decision was “upheld by the Supreme Court”, the CSD said this is simply not true, and actually she "disrespected" FRA.

With infant mortality rate of 5, better than US, guarantee to live is 'alive' in Kerala

By Nabil Abdul Majeed, Nitheesh Narayanan   In 1945, two years prior to India's independence, the current Chief Minister of Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan, was born into a working-class family in northern Kerala. He was his mother’s fourteenth child; of the thirteen siblings born before him, only two survived. His mother was an agricultural labourer and his father a toddy tapper. They belonged to a downtrodden caste, deemed untouchable under the Indian caste system.

Stands 'exposed': Cavalier attitude towards rushed construction of Char Dham project

By Bharat Dogra*  The nation heaved a big sigh of relief when the 41 workers trapped in the under-construction Silkyara-Barkot tunnel (Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand) were finally rescued on November 28 after a 17-day rescue effort. All those involved in the rescue effort deserve a big thanks of the entire country. The government deserves appreciation for providing all-round support.

Ganga-Jamuni Tehzeeb: Akbar to Shivaji -- the cross-cultural alliances that built India

​ By Ram Puniyani   ​What is Indian culture? Is it purely Hindu, or a blend of many influences? Today, Hindu right-wing advocates of Hindutva claim that Indian culture is synonymous with Hindu culture, which supposedly resisted "Muslim invaders" for centuries. This debate resurfaced recently in Kolkata at a seminar titled "The Need to Protect Hinduism from Hindutva."

Drowning or conspiracy? Singapore findings deepen questions over Zubeen Garg’s death

By Nava Thakuria*  For millions of fans of Zubeen Garg, who died under unexplained circumstances in Singapore on 19 September last year, disturbing news has emerged from the island nation. Its police authorities have stated that the iconic Assamese singer died while intoxicated and swimming in the sea without a mandatory life jacket.