By J Harsha*
On February 15, India reported first COVID-19 case. Since then India’s COVID-19 strategy has focused largely on lockdowns and social distancing. On March 22, there was one day lockdown followed by three week lockdown beginning from March 24 with widespread campaign to adopt social distancing.
On February 15, India reported first COVID-19 case. Since then India’s COVID-19 strategy has focused largely on lockdowns and social distancing. On March 22, there was one day lockdown followed by three week lockdown beginning from March 24 with widespread campaign to adopt social distancing.
This shows that lockdown and social distancing can be
temporary solutions or a stopgap arrangement to mitigate the peak burden on
limited healthcare by breaking the chain of transmission. The elderly and
vulnerable populations can be protected through social distancing.
If the lockdowns and social distancing per se flatten the infection
curve, as envisaged by governments’ COVID-19 strategists, then India should
consider itself very lucky. But what if lockdown and social distancing fail and
in such a case what is the permanent solution to overcome this pandemic?
Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in Wuhan, China
in December 2019, at least 10 countries began finding a permanent solution such
as vaccine or a drug or alternative treatment to eliminate COVID-19. Few of
them are USA, European Union, UK, Japan, Russia, Australia, China, etc. Coincidentally,
all these countries are technologically and economically advanced countries.
The genome sequencing of novel coronavirus by China at the
time of outbreak in Wuhan has given advantage in finding a breakthrough to
avert the pandemic.
Latest reports suggest University of Pittsburgh School of
Medicine (UPMC) in USA have tested the vaccine on mice and results have found
to be satisfactory. The vaccine is waiting U.S.FDA approval for human clinical
trials. TASS reported on April 5 that Russians have started vaccine trials on
animals and they are due to begin pre-clinical human trials from May.
But where does India stand in finding permanent solution to
protect its own citizens? Or what is the status of research in India in finding
the treatment to COVID-19? Whether any trials on animals have begun? There are
no answers.
Until few years back, India was hailed as a rising
superpower. India was considered an Asian giant alongside China. The past is so
evocative. But a rising superpower should show signs of economic strength and
technological advancement during this critical COVID-19 challenge.
Quite often, GDP growth and foreign reserves are projected
as a measure of India’s economic strength. For example: The foreign reserves of
over US $ 400 billion have been projected as a sign of its economic strength. Few
months back, there was widespread euphoria that India would become five
trillion economy by 2024. Government and its supporters were presumptuous. In fact
as per government statistics, in 2018, Indian economy grew by 8% and then its
GDP growth last fiscal collapsed below 5%.
But the attack of covid-19 has permanently changed all these
perceptions about India in possession of great economic strength to fight the
pandemic.
"The Times of India" on April 1 reported that some of the Indian
states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, etc., have undertaken
differential salary cuts for its employees for the month of April. On 5th April,
Government of India announced pay cuts for all its ministers and members of
Parliament.
Surprisingly, the prime ministers emergency fund, namely
PM-CARES Fund has permitted acceptance of foreign donations.
Then, the World Bank, after a long time, has extended emergency
aid to the extent of US dollar one billion to fight COVID-19 pandemic.
Lockdowns, social distancing, lighting candles, clapping can go on can only slow down COVID-19, not eliminate it
All of a sudden, the economic strength of India seems to be
Machiavellian machinations of vested interests. That too against the backdrop
of lowest oil prices in almost a decade.
India’s budgetary allocation all these years to scientific
research and development has been meagre. According to the report published by
the economic advisory council to the prime minister in 2019, the public
expenditure on research and development for the last two decades has been
stagnant at around 0.6 -0.7% compared to USA’s 2.8%, South Korea’s 4.2%, Israel 4.3%
and China’s 2.1%.
The depredations towards research and development all
these years are felt now during the ongoing COVID-19 challenge.
Hence the kind of scientific research and infrastructure
that is observed in advanced countries is not found in India. So, it is obvious
that India has no credible research found that is comparable to the level of research
of advanced countries in finding permanent solution to fight COVID-19.
Despite seven decades after independence, boasting a high
GDP growth for nearly two decades and comparisons with China, this lack of scientific
temperament, chronic under-funding and lack of research infrastructure for finding
vaccine or a treatment for COVID-19 is not only a surprise but also a big letdown
for this country of 1.3 billion population.
Thus, COVID-19 has exposed the fault-lines within this Asian
giant.
In these circumstances, how do we distract the unsuspecting
people of India from this big letdown? Take refuge in religion, exploit the
psychological weaknesses of people, perpetuate the superstitions in the name of
lighting the candles and simultaneously promote vested interests! Do these
antics eliminate the pandemic?
The middle class that consists of majority of the population
in India is too embroiled in date-to-day nuances to meet their needs and
therefore the failure of the country in finding cure to the raging COVID-19 is
inscrutable for them.
So, it is unclear how long these lockdowns, social
distancing, lighting the candles, clapping can go on when it is widely known
that these attempts can only slow down COVID-19 but not eliminate it!
Already healthcare workers have started getting infected
with the disease. Most likely, hospitals will face closure if the COVID-19
carnage spreads. It will only be lucky for India if COVID-19 shuts down by
itself in a matter a few weeks.
Else, the lockdowns, social distancing, lighting candles
etc., prove to be totally inadequate, if not fake.
At this point of time, the scenario in India is one of
despair. Governments have now have little choice left except invest urgently
and ramp up efforts to create necessary research infrastructure to develop a vaccine
or medicine or any alternative treatment to eliminate COVID-19.
That should be the permanent and long term solution instead
of waiting eternally for the elixir being developed and arriving from abroad.
For a country that was dreaming $5 trillion economy within
few years, this wait for advanced country’s breakthrough in treatment against
COVID-19 is not only a humiliation for rising superpower but also the
acceptance of its technological backwards.
However, the failure by governments in this regard and the
distraction of such failure can potentially exacerbate and lead to a
humanitarian catastrophe in India of the scale not seen for generations.
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*Hydraulic engineer, Chennai. Views are personal
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