Gujarat govt blames self for poor GSDP growth: 'Data wing didn't capture industrial growth'

By Rajiv Shah
Rattled by a relatively poor Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) growth rate in recent years, two senior Gujarat government officials, ably assisted by an Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) expert, ironically, have put – to quote them --“big question marks on the credibility of the state income estimation and hence on the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) in the state”. They say this in their recent paper, “Measurement Issues in State Income from Registered Manufacturing Sector – Case of Gujarat”, published by IIM-A.
While the IIM-A expert is Prof Ravindra H Dholakia, known for his neo-liberal approach and strong support to the Gujarat “model” of development, the government officials whom he assisted in coming up with the argument, revealingly, are with the state’s powerful statistical wing, DES – Manish B Pandya and Payal M Pateria. Clearly, known to be an excellent economist, without Prof Dholakia’s assistance, the two officials would not have been able to arrive at the conclusions drawn in the paper.
Also laying blame on the state’s industries department for not doing enough to ensure that the contribution of Gujarat’s manufacturing sector to the state’s economic growth is properly calculated, the paper says, “the primary responsibility” of updating the census sector on industries “rests with the office of the Chief Inspector of Factories in the respective state governments, who provides it to the state based Field Operations Division of National Sample Survey Office” of the Government of India.
The paper suggests how the state government is particularly rattled when Gujarat’s poor growth rate in the media. It says, “A substantial revision in manufacturing income leads to major revision in aggregate GSDP and hence in annual growth rates. Such revisions, therefore, become the target of serious criticism by media and doubts are raised on the integrity of the estimation of GSDP as a whole.” Newspapers highlighted how Gujarat government claim of double digit rate despite recession had fallen flat, and single digit growth rate was becoming a norm.

Three of six years was single digit growth in Gujarat

Among discrepancies in data collection, the paper says, these include “inadequate and highly misleading for preparing the quick estimates of state income” in Gujarat, where “more than 1000 units remain uncovered by the ASI. They account for almost 23 per cent of the net value added (NVA) in the sector reported by the ASI. Thus, the official estimates seriously under-report the NVA from the registered manufacturing sector.” It advises “urgent need to correct this situation.”

The paper says, “There are about 3068 census sector factories as per the list of State Industrial Extension Bureau (INDEXTb) in Gujarat, while, as per the ASI frame of Census sector as used by the Industrial Statistical Wing of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Kolkata, there are 1950 census sector factories surveyed during 2011-12. Thus, about 1118 factories consisting of nearly 780 large industries and 338 medium industries having more than 100 workers are left uncovered by the ASI in the state."
It elucidates, the data of 338 medium industries did not find a place in ASI classification, though it was “possible to identify” the industry groups. Of these, 187 “were chemical industries, textile industries, paper industries, gems & jewelry and metal industries”, and the “remaining 151 industries” were either as exports units or processors units. The value added per worker (CAPW) for these industries “worked out at Rs 4.55 lakh.”
“By multiplying Rs. 4.55 lakh of VAPW with the workforce of 36,377 in the 151 industries, the NVA is estimated at Rs 165515 lakh. Thus, in the aggregate, the NVA estimated from the uncovered factories on a conservative side amounts to Rs 19,792.70 crore and remains uncaptured for Gujarat under the present frame of ASI, Kolkata… The uncovered NVA works out to 23 per cent. Thus, proper reporting and estimation would raise the GSDP in the manufacturing sector by at least 23 per cent in Gujarat”, the paper concludes.

Comments

When growth shrinks people: Capitalism and the biological decline of the U.S. population

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak* Critically acclaimed Hungarian-American economic historian and distinguished scholar of economic anthropometric history, Prof. John Komlos (Professor Emeritus, University of Munich), who pioneered the study of the history of human height and weight, has published an article titled “The Decline in the Physical Stature of the U.S. Population Parallels the Diminution in the Rate of Increase in Life Expectancy” on October 31, 2025, in the forthcoming issue of Social Science & Medicine (SSM) – Population Health, Volume 32, December 2025. The findings of the article present a damning critique of the barbaric nature of capitalism and its detrimental impact on human health, highlighting that the average height of Americans began to decline during the era of free-market capitalism. The study draws on an analysis of 17 surveys from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (...

US-China truce temporary, larger trade war between two economies to continue

By Prabir Purkayastha The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, South Korea on 30 October 2025 may have brought about a temporary relief in the US-China trade war. But unless we see the fine print of the agreement, it is difficult to assess whether this is a temporary truce or the beginning of a real rapprochement between the two nations. The jury is still out on that one and we will wait for a better understanding of what has really been achieved in Busan.

Is vaccine the Voldemort of modern medicine to be left undiscussed, unscrutinised?

By Deepika* Sridhar Vembu of Zoho stirred up an internet storm by tweeting about the possible link of autism to the growing number of vaccines given to children in India . He had only asked the parents to analyse the connection but doctors, so called public health experts vehemently started opposing Vembu's claims, labeling them "dangerous misinformation" that could erode “vaccine trust”!

Justice for Zubeen Garg: Fans persist as investigations continue in India and Singapore

By Nava Thakuria* Even a month after the death of Assam’s cultural icon Zubeen Garg in Singapore under mysterious circumstances, thousands of his fans and admirers across eastern India continue their campaign for “ JusticeForZubeenGarg .” A large digital campaign has gained momentum, with over two million social media users from around the world demanding legal action against those allegedly responsible. Although the Assam government has set up a Special Investigation Team (SIT), which has arrested seven people, and a judicial commission headed by Justice Soumitra Saikia of the Gauhati High Court to oversee the probe, public pressure for justice remains strong.

Govt claims about 'revolutionary' rice varieties raise eyebrows: SC order reserved since Jan '24

By Rosamma Thomas * In a matter of grave importance for agriculture, public health awaits Supreme Court ruling, even as top Government of India bureaucrats stand accused of “willful and deliberate disobedience” of the top court. While a contempt petition filed by Aruna Rodrigues , lead petitioner in the Genetic Modification (GM) of crops matter remains pending in the Supreme Court since July 2025, the Union ministry of agriculture asserts that two home-grown gene edited rice varieties are of superior quality, and hold potential for “revolutionary changes in higher production, climate adaptability, and water conservation.” In May 2025, the Press Information Bureau released a press release stating that a “historic milestone” had been reached, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ; the new varieties, DRR Rice 100 (Kamla) and Pusa DST Rice 1 , the press release stated, offer both benefits – increased production and environmental conservation.

Banks, investors pour $52 billion into metallurgical coal expansion despite global climate pledges

By A Representative A new report by the German environmental and human rights NGO Urgewald has revealed that banks and institutional investors have poured nearly $52 billion into the expansion of metallurgical coal, or “met coal,” despite global commitments to phase out coal financing. Between 2022 and 2024, banks provided $21.96 billion in loans and underwriting to met coal developers, while investors held $30.23 billion in securities of companies expanding coal mining operations. The report, Still Burning: How Banks and Investors Fuel Met Coal Expansion, warns that loopholes in coal exit policies have allowed continued support for coal used in steelmaking — a sector responsible for about 11% of global CO₂ emissions.

Gujarat civil society to move Supreme Court against controversial electoral roll revision

By Rajiv Shah A recent, well-attended meeting of Gujarat civil society activists in Ahmedabad , held to discuss the impact of the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, has decided to file a petition in the Supreme Court against the controversial exercise initiated by the Election Commission of India (ECI) across the country. Announcing this, senior High Court advocate Anand Yagnik , who heads the Gujarat chapter of the People’s Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL), said that a committee has already been formed to examine the pros and cons of SIR. “While the SIR exercise began in Gujarat on November 4 and is scheduled to continue for a month, we will file a supporting petition in the case against SIR in the Gujarat High Court or the Supreme Court after observing how it proceeds in the state,” he said. Yagnik’s announcement followed senior advocate Shahrukh Alam —who is arguing the SIR case in the Supreme Court—urging Gujarat’s civil society to also file ...

Trump escalates threats of war against Venezuela, as millions in US set to lose essential benefits

By Manolo De Los Santos The United States government is in the grips of one of its longest-running funding gaps in history. The ongoing government shutdown has already stretched beyond 30 days and now, the food security of millions of Americans is at risk as the funding to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is drying up and Trump officials have refused to tap into contingency funds . Approximately 42 million individuals per month rely on SNAP benefits and are set to lose them beginning on November 1.

New RTI draft rules inspired by citizen-unfriendly, overtly bureaucratic approach

By Venkatesh Nayak* The Department of Personnel and Training , Government of India has invited comments on a new set of Draft Rules (available in English only) to implement The Right to Information Act, 2005 . The RTI Rules were last amended in 2012 after a long period of consultation with various stakeholders. The Government’s move to put the draft RTI Rules out for people’s comments and suggestions for change is a welcome continuation of the tradition of public consultation. Positive aspects of the Draft RTI Rules While 60-65% of the Draft RTI Rules repeat the content of the 2012 RTI Rules, some new aspects deserve appreciation as they clarify the manner of implementation of key provisions of the RTI Act. These are: Provisions for dealing with non-compliance of the orders and directives of the Central Information Commission (CIC) by public authorities- this was missing in the 2012 RTI Rules. Non-compliance is increasingly becoming a major problem- two of my non-compliance cases are...

Search This Blog