Gujarat govt blames self for poor GSDP growth: 'Data wing didn't capture industrial growth'

By Rajiv Shah
Rattled by a relatively poor Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) growth rate in recent years, two senior Gujarat government officials, ably assisted by an Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) expert, ironically, have put – to quote them --“big question marks on the credibility of the state income estimation and hence on the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) in the state”. They say this in their recent paper, “Measurement Issues in State Income from Registered Manufacturing Sector – Case of Gujarat”, published by IIM-A.
While the IIM-A expert is Prof Ravindra H Dholakia, known for his neo-liberal approach and strong support to the Gujarat “model” of development, the government officials whom he assisted in coming up with the argument, revealingly, are with the state’s powerful statistical wing, DES – Manish B Pandya and Payal M Pateria. Clearly, known to be an excellent economist, without Prof Dholakia’s assistance, the two officials would not have been able to arrive at the conclusions drawn in the paper.
Also laying blame on the state’s industries department for not doing enough to ensure that the contribution of Gujarat’s manufacturing sector to the state’s economic growth is properly calculated, the paper says, “the primary responsibility” of updating the census sector on industries “rests with the office of the Chief Inspector of Factories in the respective state governments, who provides it to the state based Field Operations Division of National Sample Survey Office” of the Government of India.
The paper suggests how the state government is particularly rattled when Gujarat’s poor growth rate in the media. It says, “A substantial revision in manufacturing income leads to major revision in aggregate GSDP and hence in annual growth rates. Such revisions, therefore, become the target of serious criticism by media and doubts are raised on the integrity of the estimation of GSDP as a whole.” Newspapers highlighted how Gujarat government claim of double digit rate despite recession had fallen flat, and single digit growth rate was becoming a norm.

Three of six years was single digit growth in Gujarat

Among discrepancies in data collection, the paper says, these include “inadequate and highly misleading for preparing the quick estimates of state income” in Gujarat, where “more than 1000 units remain uncovered by the ASI. They account for almost 23 per cent of the net value added (NVA) in the sector reported by the ASI. Thus, the official estimates seriously under-report the NVA from the registered manufacturing sector.” It advises “urgent need to correct this situation.”

The paper says, “There are about 3068 census sector factories as per the list of State Industrial Extension Bureau (INDEXTb) in Gujarat, while, as per the ASI frame of Census sector as used by the Industrial Statistical Wing of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Kolkata, there are 1950 census sector factories surveyed during 2011-12. Thus, about 1118 factories consisting of nearly 780 large industries and 338 medium industries having more than 100 workers are left uncovered by the ASI in the state."
It elucidates, the data of 338 medium industries did not find a place in ASI classification, though it was “possible to identify” the industry groups. Of these, 187 “were chemical industries, textile industries, paper industries, gems & jewelry and metal industries”, and the “remaining 151 industries” were either as exports units or processors units. The value added per worker (CAPW) for these industries “worked out at Rs 4.55 lakh.”
“By multiplying Rs. 4.55 lakh of VAPW with the workforce of 36,377 in the 151 industries, the NVA is estimated at Rs 165515 lakh. Thus, in the aggregate, the NVA estimated from the uncovered factories on a conservative side amounts to Rs 19,792.70 crore and remains uncaptured for Gujarat under the present frame of ASI, Kolkata… The uncovered NVA works out to 23 per cent. Thus, proper reporting and estimation would raise the GSDP in the manufacturing sector by at least 23 per cent in Gujarat”, the paper concludes.

Comments

Manufacturing, services: India's low-skill, middle-skill labour remains underemployed

By Francis Kuriakose* The Indian economy was in a state of deceleration well before Covid-19 made its impact in early 2020. This can be inferred from the declining trends of four important macroeconomic variables that indicate the health of the economy in the last quarter of 2019.

Civil society flags widespread violations of land acquisition Act before Parliamentary panel

By Jag Jivan Civil society organisations and stakeholders from across India have presented stark evidence before the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Rural Development and Panchayati Raj , alleging systemic violations of the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (RFCTLARR) Act, 2013 , particularly in Scheduled Areas and tribal regions.

Why Indo-Pak relations have been on 'knife’s edge' , hostilities may remain for long

By Utkarsh Bajpai* The past few decades have seen strides being made in all aspects of life – from sticks and stones to weaponry. The extreme case of this phenomenon has been nuclear weapons. The menace caused by nuclear weapons in the past is unforgettable. Images of Hiroshima and Nagasaki from 1945 come to mind, after the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the cities.

Food security? Gujarat govt puts more than 5 lakh ration cards in the 'silent' category

By Pankti Jog* A new statistical report uploaded by the Gujarat government on the national food security portal shows that ensuring food security for the marginalized community is still not a priority of the state. The statistical report, uploaded on December 24, highlights many weaknesses in implementing the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in state.

Incarceration of Prof Saibaba 'revives' the question: What is crime, who is criminal?

By Kunal Pant* In 2016, a Supreme Court Judge asked the state of Maharashtra, “Do you want to extract a pound of flesh?” The statement was directed against the state for contesting the bail plea of Delhi University Professor GN Saibaba. Saibaba was arrested in 2014, a justification for which was to prevent him from committing what the police called “anti-national activities.”

The soundtrack of resistance: How 'Sada Sada Ya Nabi' is fueling the Iran war

By Syed Ali Mujtaba* The Persian track “ Sada Sada Ya Nabi ye ” by Hossein Sotoodeh has taken the world by storm. This viral media has cut across linguistic barriers to achieve cult status, reaching over 10 million views. The electrifying music and passionate rendition by the Iranian singer have resonated across the globe, particularly as the high-intensity military conflict involving Iran entered its second month in March 2026.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Beyond the island: Top mythologist reorients the geography of the Ramayana

By Jag Jivan In a compelling new analysis that challenges conventional geographical assumptions about the ancient epic, writer and mythologist Devdutt Pattanaik has traced the roots of the Ramayana to the forests and river systems of Central and Eastern India, rather than the peninsular south or the modern island nation of Sri Lanka.

Concentration of wealth in India at levels 'comparable to colonial times', says new report

By Jag Jivan A new report published in March 2026 by the Centre for Financial Accountability and the Tax The Top campaign paints a stark picture of deepening economic disparity in India, documenting a concentration of wealth that it argues is “comparable to colonial times.” Titled Wealth Tracker India | Tax the Top. Close the Gap , the compilation presents data from the World Inequality Database and the Hurun Rich List to illustrate the meteoric rise of the ultra-wealthy alongside the stagnation and debt burdens of the majority.

Search This Blog