By Parineeta Dandekar*
Last October, we were about 15 km from Chasoti in the Paddar Valley of Jammu when we met Dular Singh ji, priest of the Machail Mata Temple, accompanied by other members of the Temple Management Board. They were on their way to the Mindhal Mata Temple, also on the banks of the Chenab in the neighbouring Pangi Valley. Theirs was a journey upstream along the Chenab, while ours was downstream. We spoke about the Chenab, floods, the Mindhal and Machail Mata Yatras (pilgrimages), and the beautifully carved wooden temples of this region.
Now, Dular Singh ji, who is just 3 km from Chasoti, tells me in a voice choked with emotion that he has never seen such a devastating flash flood in his life. “Mata Rani sabki raksha kare” (May the deity protect all), he says. He is also deeply worried about villages like Hangu, Hanoti, Hamori and Bhajanu Nalla.
Last October, we were about 15 km from Chasoti in the Paddar Valley of Jammu when we met Dular Singh ji, priest of the Machail Mata Temple, accompanied by other members of the Temple Management Board. They were on their way to the Mindhal Mata Temple, also on the banks of the Chenab in the neighbouring Pangi Valley. Theirs was a journey upstream along the Chenab, while ours was downstream. We spoke about the Chenab, floods, the Mindhal and Machail Mata Yatras (pilgrimages), and the beautifully carved wooden temples of this region.
Now, Dular Singh ji, who is just 3 km from Chasoti, tells me in a voice choked with emotion that he has never seen such a devastating flash flood in his life. “Mata Rani sabki raksha kare” (May the deity protect all), he says. He is also deeply worried about villages like Hangu, Hanoti, Hamori and Bhajanu Nalla.
Pawan Kumar, a young contractor working on small projects in downstream Pandel, tells me that while flash floods and cloudbursts have occurred in the past, he has never even heard stories of devastation on the scale of what has now struck Chasoti.
As I write this, more than 50 bodies of pilgrims on the Machail Mata Yatra have been recovered, and over 200 people remain unaccounted for. Chasoti is a small settlement that serves as a base camp for the Yatra. Despite being in a remote region, the village is strikingly populated, with homes and guesthouses built close to the Chasoti (or Jasnai) Nalla.
Recurrent Flash Floods in Paddar Valley and Bhut Nalla
Paddar Valley — a sub-division of Kishtwar District on the banks of the Chenab and bordering Himachal Pradesh — is no stranger to floods. Bhut Nalla, an important tributary of the Chenab flowing through the heart of Paddar Valley, has experienced repeated flash floods and landslides over the past few years. In 2021, flash floods here caused four confirmed deaths and washed away around 30 people. Flash floods in 2023 also led to loss of life. Just a few weeks ago, the road to Machail Mata Yatra was damaged by flooding from the very same Jasnai Nalla that wreaked havoc on 14 August 2025.
At present, the exact cause of the catastrophic Chasoti floods — possibly linked to the Jasnai Nalla — is unclear. It might have been triggered by a cloudburst, landslide, GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood), or some specific local event. This nalla is no minor stream; it originates near the 21,000 ft Brammah II Peak in the Kishtwar Himalayas and plunges down steep slopes to Chasoti before meeting Bhut Nalla, which in turn joins the Chenab (Chandrabhaga) in Gulabgarh. The region is also famous for its rare sapphire (neelam) mines.
The Bhut Nalla basin, which includes the Machail Mata Yatra route and the Machail Mata Mandir (photo) at an elevation of 2,800 m, draws thousands of pilgrims each year. Many trek the 30 km route from Gulabgarh to Machail in August, the peak monsoon and hazard season, while others drive to Chasoti and walk from there.
This region is highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, as studies and local experience confirm. Paddar sub-division is Jammu’s remotest valley, sharing borders with Zanskar in Ladakh to the north and Pangi Valley in Himachal Pradesh to the east. Kishtwar district, with an unusually high density of hydropower projects, is also rated the “most vulnerable” district in J&K for GLOF-related events.
Retreating Glaciers
The 390 km² Bhut Nalla Basin, home to Machail and Chasoti, contains 90 glaciers. Between 1993 and 2021, its total glacial area has shrunk, while the number of glaciers has increased — indicating fragmentation — with an average retreat of 11 metres per year. This mirrors the rapid glacier loss across the Chenab Valley. (Full report: link)
10 km from a Highly Hazardous Glacial Lake
A recent joint study by Central University of Jammu, the Geological Survey of India, and the University of Kashmir identified 11 high-risk glacial lakes in J&K, three of which are classified as “highly hazardous” and at risk of failure from triggers like cloudbursts. All three are in Kishtwar District. Hangu Lake is just 10 km from Chasoti, and Mudiksar Lake is about 50 km away. The study, commissioned by the Department of Disaster Management, Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction (DDMRRR) of J&K, aimed to formulate strategies for GLOF risk mitigation. The key questions now are: How has the recent rainfall affected these lakes? What risks do they now pose downstream?
Hydropower Projects in a Volatile Region
The Chenab basin — from Lahaul, Miyar Valley, Pangi Valley, and Paddar Valley to Bhadarwah — is dotted with large hydropower projects. While the Himachal dams are yet to be built, Jammu already has several commissioned or under-construction projects in series. Scientists have repeatedly warned of the dangers GLOFs, flash floods, and landslides pose to such infrastructure. The disasters in Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Himachal Pradesh illustrate how hydropower projects in hazard zones can magnify impacts on communities.
The 624 MW Kiru Hydropower Project, nearly complete, is just 30 km downstream from Chasoti. Right after it is the 540 MW Kwar Project. Upstream, the proposed 500 MW Dugar Project is only 28 km away. About 50 km further upstream, near the proposed Purthi Project, lies Kadu Nalla glacial lake, expanding at an alarming rate and under threat of a GLOF.
There is no comprehensive climate risk assessment of planned, under-construction, or operating projects in the Chenab Basin — a glaring gap that must be addressed urgently, regardless of individual project clearances.
As I write, multiple locations along the Chenab — from Lindur and Miyar in Himachal to Bhut Nalla in Kishtwar — are facing flash floods and related disasters.
Machail Mata Yatra
Although the Machail Mata shrine in Gulabgarh and Machail is ancient, the annual Yatra is relatively recent. According to priests and pilgrims, it began only in the 1980s, initiated by retired police official Kuldeep Singh Jamwal. Before that, the shrine was revered locally and occasionally visited by officials travelling to Zanskar via Machail.
Given the region’s extreme fragility, recurring flash floods, cloudbursts, and disasters — and the fact that the Yatra is held in the riskiest month of August — it would be prudent to keep the pilgrimage modest, with limited numbers, rather than promoting an event that draws thousands to such a vulnerable and remote area.
From our travels through villages like Lingri, Pandel, Tunkhel, Palali, and Gulabgarh, it is clear that many settlements here are so remote they function almost off-grid, making timely aid delivery extremely challenging.
Comprehensive studies of glacial lakes, nallas, and moraines are urgently needed, with local communities as partners and knowledge-holders. Infrastructure activities like road blasting, hydropower tunnelling, dumping muck into rivers (as blatantly done by the Ratle project), and dense construction near hazardous streams are highly inadvisable here.
Such decisions must be made on credible assessments — and with clear accountability.
---
*With South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP). A version of this article was first appeared in the SANDRP website
As I write this, more than 50 bodies of pilgrims on the Machail Mata Yatra have been recovered, and over 200 people remain unaccounted for. Chasoti is a small settlement that serves as a base camp for the Yatra. Despite being in a remote region, the village is strikingly populated, with homes and guesthouses built close to the Chasoti (or Jasnai) Nalla.
Recurrent Flash Floods in Paddar Valley and Bhut Nalla
Paddar Valley — a sub-division of Kishtwar District on the banks of the Chenab and bordering Himachal Pradesh — is no stranger to floods. Bhut Nalla, an important tributary of the Chenab flowing through the heart of Paddar Valley, has experienced repeated flash floods and landslides over the past few years. In 2021, flash floods here caused four confirmed deaths and washed away around 30 people. Flash floods in 2023 also led to loss of life. Just a few weeks ago, the road to Machail Mata Yatra was damaged by flooding from the very same Jasnai Nalla that wreaked havoc on 14 August 2025.
At present, the exact cause of the catastrophic Chasoti floods — possibly linked to the Jasnai Nalla — is unclear. It might have been triggered by a cloudburst, landslide, GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood), or some specific local event. This nalla is no minor stream; it originates near the 21,000 ft Brammah II Peak in the Kishtwar Himalayas and plunges down steep slopes to Chasoti before meeting Bhut Nalla, which in turn joins the Chenab (Chandrabhaga) in Gulabgarh. The region is also famous for its rare sapphire (neelam) mines.
The Bhut Nalla basin, which includes the Machail Mata Yatra route and the Machail Mata Mandir (photo) at an elevation of 2,800 m, draws thousands of pilgrims each year. Many trek the 30 km route from Gulabgarh to Machail in August, the peak monsoon and hazard season, while others drive to Chasoti and walk from there.
Retreating Glaciers
The 390 km² Bhut Nalla Basin, home to Machail and Chasoti, contains 90 glaciers. Between 1993 and 2021, its total glacial area has shrunk, while the number of glaciers has increased — indicating fragmentation — with an average retreat of 11 metres per year. This mirrors the rapid glacier loss across the Chenab Valley. (Full report: link)
10 km from a Highly Hazardous Glacial Lake
A recent joint study by Central University of Jammu, the Geological Survey of India, and the University of Kashmir identified 11 high-risk glacial lakes in J&K, three of which are classified as “highly hazardous” and at risk of failure from triggers like cloudbursts. All three are in Kishtwar District. Hangu Lake is just 10 km from Chasoti, and Mudiksar Lake is about 50 km away. The study, commissioned by the Department of Disaster Management, Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction (DDMRRR) of J&K, aimed to formulate strategies for GLOF risk mitigation. The key questions now are: How has the recent rainfall affected these lakes? What risks do they now pose downstream?
Hydropower Projects in a Volatile Region
The Chenab basin — from Lahaul, Miyar Valley, Pangi Valley, and Paddar Valley to Bhadarwah — is dotted with large hydropower projects. While the Himachal dams are yet to be built, Jammu already has several commissioned or under-construction projects in series. Scientists have repeatedly warned of the dangers GLOFs, flash floods, and landslides pose to such infrastructure. The disasters in Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Himachal Pradesh illustrate how hydropower projects in hazard zones can magnify impacts on communities.
The 624 MW Kiru Hydropower Project, nearly complete, is just 30 km downstream from Chasoti. Right after it is the 540 MW Kwar Project. Upstream, the proposed 500 MW Dugar Project is only 28 km away. About 50 km further upstream, near the proposed Purthi Project, lies Kadu Nalla glacial lake, expanding at an alarming rate and under threat of a GLOF.
There is no comprehensive climate risk assessment of planned, under-construction, or operating projects in the Chenab Basin — a glaring gap that must be addressed urgently, regardless of individual project clearances.
As I write, multiple locations along the Chenab — from Lindur and Miyar in Himachal to Bhut Nalla in Kishtwar — are facing flash floods and related disasters.
Machail Mata Yatra
Although the Machail Mata shrine in Gulabgarh and Machail is ancient, the annual Yatra is relatively recent. According to priests and pilgrims, it began only in the 1980s, initiated by retired police official Kuldeep Singh Jamwal. Before that, the shrine was revered locally and occasionally visited by officials travelling to Zanskar via Machail.
Given the region’s extreme fragility, recurring flash floods, cloudbursts, and disasters — and the fact that the Yatra is held in the riskiest month of August — it would be prudent to keep the pilgrimage modest, with limited numbers, rather than promoting an event that draws thousands to such a vulnerable and remote area.
From our travels through villages like Lingri, Pandel, Tunkhel, Palali, and Gulabgarh, it is clear that many settlements here are so remote they function almost off-grid, making timely aid delivery extremely challenging.
Comprehensive studies of glacial lakes, nallas, and moraines are urgently needed, with local communities as partners and knowledge-holders. Infrastructure activities like road blasting, hydropower tunnelling, dumping muck into rivers (as blatantly done by the Ratle project), and dense construction near hazardous streams are highly inadvisable here.
Such decisions must be made on credible assessments — and with clear accountability.
---
*With South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP). A version of this article was first appeared in the SANDRP website
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