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Contemporary global scenario: Emerging Beijing-Pyongyang-Teheran-Moscow axis

By Prof Sudhanshu Tripathi* 

The world today stands at an awful turn where everyone is reminded of American nuclear attack over Japan’s twin cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 to terminate the IInd World War. Though there looks no visible solution to the ongoing Russia-Ukrain war, but India’s peace mediation between the two warring nations may help-resolve their mutual differences to pave way towards a peaceful solution. Because PM Modi enjoys full faith and confidence with both Presidents, Putin and Zelensky.
The contemporary global scenario continues to be very worrisome as well as frightening too due to many unhealthy and undemocratic trends that were witnessed in China and North Korea during the long past, and also in Russia and Iran in the recent times. While autocratic rule continue to be consolidated both in Beijing and Moscow with the emergence of self-perpetuating leadership, having no opposition of any kind, the despotic and tyrannical leadership in Teheran and Pyongyang have perhaps no parallel in the recent history.
Though few more countries may also be cited here in this context like Libya, Algeria, Syria, Pakistan etc. but the aforesaid four nations have been especially marked as potential instigators to destroy peace and security in the world by help-fomenting the prevailing war-like situation in the world. That may probably turn into frightening proportions of either a large-scale war involving most of the major powers including NATO member-states or IIIrd World War in the near future, if not contained soon by the peace-loving global community under the auspices of the United Nations or many other global peace movements including the Non-aligned Movement.
It is so because the aforesaid four states have already displayed there reckless behaviour to the global community throughout the preceding decades by resorting to aggressive assertions and illegal actions which are in total contravention to the established provisions of the International Law as well as the Charter of the United Nations and also against the spirit of customary international behaviour and Natural Justice as well. While North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un is a notorious tyrant perpetrating horrific barbarities upon his countrymen and launching powerful missiles in neighbourhood apart from conducting nuclear tests thereby threatening the security of South Korea and Japan and also the distant powers like the US and Australia etc., China’s Xi-Jinping is indeed an unmatched aggressive and assertive warrior emerged as a perfect match to his country’s expansionist policies coming down today since ancient days of warrior dynasties.
And that has led to immense expansion of Chinese territory in all directions including Tibet, Manchuria and Hong Kong and few more in its neighbouring regions. Now Taiwan appears to be its next target. Similarly China’s aggressive assertions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly capturing South China Sea, is a major challenge to all countries spreading around Indian Ocean Rim, Southeast Asia and South Asia region apart from Australia, Japan, South Korea, the US and also Russia. Further, the case of the present Russian leadership may be found quite different from the above-mentioned two leaders because Russian leaders since earlier times to the present Putin’s regime may be considered as moderate warriors as well as moderate autocrats with a lone example of Stalin who indeed surpassed the cruelty of German leader Hitler and the Italian one Mussolini. Consequently, the Russian empire expanded considerably to include smaller states of Baltics, Central Asia and Eastern Europe specifically.
However there had been a liberal-democratic leader Mikhail Gorbachev during the later-half of 1980s, so turned perhaps due to severe economic constraints that prevailed in the then USSR, prior to his ascension. The conservative Islamic leadership in Teheran has also been pursuing repressive measures against its citizens especially the youths who want liberal-democratic social and cultural order in Iran to the utter embarrassment of its rulers.
Against this backdrop, the ongoing Russia-Ukrain War getting more and more fierce with the passage of each day along with China’s increasing intrusions into Taiwanese air space and continuing efforts to infiltrate into Indian territory apart from extending its claim over Japanese islands and Russia’s Vladivostok city altogether are grave concerns to the peace and security of the entire Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
In such a tense scenario, North Korea’s regular missile launch and atomic tests have obviously added fuel to fire thereby threatening peace and security of the whole Korean Peninsula besides that of Japan and the US and also other powers in the Pacific-Atlantic region. Similarly Iran’s recurring threat to Israel and few other states in region and mounting tensions with the US are the potential factors to disturb regional peace and security. As the US is the common target of all the aforesaid four nations due to different reasons attached to each one of them, their common alliance against Washington like forging a Beijing-Teheran-Pyongyang-Moscow axis looks a near possibility.
Notwithstanding these observations to the contrary, the immediate visible threat of a major war or the impending World War inevitably converges upon the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War, completing almost a year and that has so far witnessed major casualties to both sides in terms of human as well as material power. Unfortunately Ukrain has refused a ceasefire proposal extended by the Russian President Putin few days ago and that has aggravated tensions in Moscow.
Thus Russia, in its bid to inflict decisive defeat upon its small neighbour Ukrain, may ultimately use nuclear weapons against Kyiv and will then, very likely get embroiled into a major war with the US and its NATO allies. Because Washington along with NATO powers, including France, Germany, England etc. have been consistently extending all material and logistical help to Ukrain including advanced lethal weapons, artillery, tanks, fighter planes and air defence systems and much needed intelligence to the Ukrainian army throughout the course of this battle.
And that has boosted the morale of Ukrainian army and has consequently led to their successful retaliation with bigger strikes against Moscow’s attacks to cause heavy casualties of the Russian army. And that has resulted into partial exodus or surrender by the Russian soldiers as per reports of Newsweek. The so-infuriated Russia has ordered to kill its soldiers surrendering before the Ukranian army and continues to launch major offensives upon Kyiv thereby killing hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers including civilians, besides already imprisoning around 500 hundred Ukrainian children, according to media reports.
According to experts Russia will have no option in the last but to drop nuclear bombs over Ukrain due to declining morale of its own army fighting against huge united power of the US led NATO members standing behind the Ukrainian army, thereby sustaining President Zelensky’s continuing belligerence against Moscow.
The Russian President Putin has already made his intentions clear just few days ago by stationing the Russian naval warship Admiral Gorshkov into Atlantic Ocean which carries on board, inter-alia, the hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles, which can’t be detected by any air-defence system of the NATO powers including that of the US. Further these missiles can track their targets at a speed more than 11000 km/ hour and has a range of approx.1000 km. With this so-assumed position in the Atlantic, the Russian missiles can now target almost the entire America and the Europe as well.
In fact, Russia aims at regaining its glorious days of the then USSR during post-World War II Cold War years challenging the US might as a counter pole in international relations. Also Moscow considers Washington to be real mastermind behind the disintegration of its united and powerful empire. Hence it has to surpass the US. Holding almost same passion, Chinese leadership aspires to upstage the US to become an unquestioned global hegemon.
In the same vein Pyongyang also has its deep-seated desire to challenge the US apart from browbeating its neighbour South Korea and its other supporting nations so as to remain an unparalleled autocrat in the world. Similarly Iran is particularly against the US as it is not being able to pursue its nuclear weaponisation programme because Washington has all along got restrained Teheran from doing so through UN Security Council’s harshest sanctions and mounting international pressure including its isolation in the global community during past decade.
Against this backdrop, the common enemy for all these four aggressive- warrior states is the US despite their mutual differences, apart from peace-loving states like India, Australia and more. Precariously all these four states are closely attached to each other particularly as regards nurturing their bitter animosity against the US. And the US-Russia tensions have escalated to a very high level especially due to continuous American support to Ukrain. Unfortunately the Russia-Ukrain war has already taken a long course to remain indecisive and that still continues to utter dismay of Russia as a big power against its very small neighbour Ukrain.
If Moscow really uses the nuclear weapons against Ukrain, it will obviously face vigorous retaliation in association with the US and other nuclear-powered NATO allies and that will inevitably result into a major nuclear holocaust to destroy almost the entire Euro-Atlantic regions, besides considerably damaging other regions in the world.
Thus Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions are going to be the next amphitheatre of perhaps major war or possibly the next world war wherein the US may have to confront with likely emerging Beijing- Teheran-Pyongyang-Moscow axis or may get entangled in separate war with either one of them. Although all the four states have their different vested interests against America yet their quadruple alliance will be the logical outcome if a slight instigation takes place either in the Russia-Ukrain war or China’s attack over Taiwan or Pyongyang’s missile attack over Seoul or Teheran’s possible strike over Jerusalem.
Against this scenario, the world today stands at a very horrible turn where everybody is reminded of the US nuclear bomb attack over Japan in 1945 to terminate the IInd World War. Although there looks no visible solution to the ongoing Russia-Ukrain war, yet India’s peaceful mediation between the two belligerent nations may help-relax their hardened positions against each other as PM Modi enjoys good faith and full confidence with both, President Putin as well as President Zelensky. If this mediation succeeds anyhow, it may help discourage the aforesaid likely emerging axis.
---
*MDPG College, Pratpapgarh (UP)

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