Skip to main content

Slowdown impact: Joblessness in India may cross 8%, people quitting labour market

By Our Representative
A 30-day moving average of the unemployment rate during most of the first week of March 2020 was over 8 per cent, even though the ended with an unemployment rate of 7.71 per cent, Mahesh Vyas, managing director and CEO of one of India’s top consulting firms, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has said.
In a recent analysis of the unemployment situation, the top expert says, “The unemployment rate has been rising steadily for over two years now”, and while till recently it looked like it would settle at a shade below 8 per cent, it seems that “the rate could rise to more than 8 per cent.”
Suggesting that it is possible to say there is “a limit to the increase in the unemployment rate”, however, he adds, what is particularly alarming is, “After a point, people get so discouraged by not finding jobs that they exit the labour markets”, leading to “a rather incongruous impact of a fall in the unemployment rate.”
According to Vyas, “If people who cannot find jobs stop looking for jobs, they are quitting the labour markets and in doing so, they are reducing the count of the unemployed and thereby reducing the unemployment rate.” However he says, this type of decline in the unemployment rate “is not a good sign.”
In fact, he says, “It is worse than an increasing unemployment rate. This is what has been happening in India. The labour participation rate has been falling. And, given the poor prospects of growth, this is likely to continue to happen.”
“The labour participation rate in February was 42.6 per cent”, Vyas says, adding, “In the last week of the month it had dropped to 42 per cent. The 30-day moving average labour participation rate has been falling since February 20. In the first week of March 2020 it was 42.14 per cent.”
Worrisome, during 2019, there was increase in number of persons employed in farming, which is risky business, requiring additional government support
Further, notes Vyas, “There is an additional reason why the labour participation rate may decline. This is because the quality of employment is deteriorating. The emerging composition of employment indicates a decline in good quality jobs and an increase in risky employment choices.”
Thus, “During 2019, there was a big increase, of 8 million, in the count of self-employed entrepreneurs. At the same time, salaried jobs declined by 1 million. A salaried job is arguably, the most preferred kind of employment. When these jobs decline, labour has few choices.”
What is also worrisome, Vyas says, is that during 2019, there was also an increase in the number of farmers, pointing out, “Farming is risky business which has required additional support from the central government and several state governments. Farming is not the first choice for employment of any young graduate. It can be either disguised unemployment or a compulsion.”
Then, he says, “New risks have emerged in the form of the Covid-19 virus. This threatens to shutdown economic activity in many pockets of the world. This could disrupt some supply chains in India and it has started to impact tourism and hospitality industries which are significant providers of employment.”

Comments

Monnika Jacob said…
Your post reflects my thinking, the government and the universities should work out a plan of action in which degrees will be awarded to as many students as the government and the private sector can easily give them jobs. Buy Essay Online UK

TRENDING

Buddhist shrines massively destroyed by Brahmanical rulers in "pre-Islamic" era: Historian DN Jha's survey

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

India sees 62 journo deaths, 4th highest, amidst pandemic: Swiss media rights body

By Our Representative The Switzerland-based media rights body Press Emblem Campaign (PEC) has noted that India is the fourth most affected country as far as mediapersons’ death on account of Covid-19 is concerned. According to Blaise Lempen, secretary-general of PEC, the global tally of casualties among media persons in the Covid-19 pandemic has reached 1,036 journalists in 73 countries till date.

Liberating Bengal Hindus? Worst flames of communal division, lessons from the past

By Shamsul Islam*  The whole thrust of the RSS-BJP election campaign for 2021 state assembly elections in West Bengal has been to save Bengal from the rule of Mamata Bannerjee who is allegedly not a ‘Hindu’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a self-proclaimed Hindu nationalist, as usual set the polarizing agenda. While addressing the first election rally, he called upon the electorate to overthrow the ‘nirmam’ (cruel) rule of Mamata by showing a ‘Ram Card’. He did not name Hindus directly but there was no confusion about the religious identity of the electorate Indian PM was addressing to.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Modi's Hindutva 'ensuring' empowerment of rich, disenfranchisement of poor

Bhabani Shankar Nayak*  The Hindutva socio-psychopaths are neither nationalists nor patriotic people. These medieval reactionary forces don’t understand the idea of citizenship, justice, liberty, equality and humanism. Indian democracy is merely an electoral transaction for the Hindutva forces. Hindutva forces neither follow science nor understand the sufferings of fellow human beings. These core qualities are common among the Hindutva forces in India.

Rs 5 crore 'demand' for India Today anchor: What about 52 lesser souls who died in April?

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  A well known Hindutva protagonist masquerading as journalist passed away recently resulting in messages of condolences and tribute right from the Prime Minister and the Home Minister to progressive liberals expressing grief of his untimely death. It is said that he passed away due to cardiac arrest, though the fact is, he was also Covid infected. The Prime Minister and the Home Minister termed him a ‘brave’ journalist, insisting, his passing away has left a big ‘vacuum’.

Communal rhetoric? Hindutva preached by RSS-BJP is 'monolithic', not Hinduism

By Prem Verma*  I am a devout Hindu but not a believer of RSS Hindutva form of Hinduism which brings about hatred of other religions. My Hindu religion has not taught me to look down on other religions and neither has it instilled in me to go about converting others to my religion because my religion is superior.

India's Covid-19 'nightmare': A product of majoritarian Hindutva ideological praxis?

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak*  Indians struggle to find place and time to bury their dead due to the devastating effects of the second wave of Covid-19 in India. The crematoriums in the capital cities are overflowing with dead bodies. People are dying without oxygen and basic medical support. The cities like Delhi and Mumbai are struggling to cope with the rising number of infections and COVID-19 led deaths. The deaths and destitutions are products of a defunct BJP government led by Narendra Modi.

Indian media persons collapsing to Covid disease as fast as 3 per day, third highest

Yogesh Sharma, Shailesh Rawal  By Our Representative  The Switzerland based media rights and safety body, Press Emblem Campaign ( PEC ) has said that it is “alarming for Indian journalists”, who have lost at least 107 colleagues to Covid-19”, noting, Indian “journo-colleagues” have been collapsing to the Covid-19 complications now as fast as three scribes per day. In a statement, PEC said, “India with 107 media corona-casualties has already placed itself on the third position just below Brazil (181 dead) and Peru (140) in the list of Covid-19 victims among journalist.”

Pradeep Bhattacharya, who spent his life for the cause of working masses, rational thinking

By YS Gill*  At 11:30 pm on May 3, 2021, I lost my best friend and comrade Pradeep Bhattacharya. He spent his life dedicated to the cause of the working masses and rational thinking. A person of thorough scientific outlook and a well-read student of Marxian thought, he was a walking encyclopedia and could speak on a wide variety of topics from art and culture to science, philosophy, history and politics.