Skip to main content

Slowdown impact: Joblessness in India may cross 8%, people quitting labour market

By A Representative
A 30-day moving average of the unemployment rate during most of the first week of March 2020 was over 8 per cent, even though the ended with an unemployment rate of 7.71 per cent, Mahesh Vyas, managing director and CEO of one of India’s top consulting firms, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has said.
In a recent analysis of the unemployment situation, the top expert says, “The unemployment rate has been rising steadily for over two years now”, and while till recently it looked like it would settle at a shade below 8 per cent, it seems that “the rate could rise to more than 8 per cent.”
Suggesting that it is possible to say there is “a limit to the increase in the unemployment rate”, however, he adds, what is particularly alarming is, “After a point, people get so discouraged by not finding jobs that they exit the labour markets”, leading to “a rather incongruous impact of a fall in the unemployment rate.”
According to Vyas, “If people who cannot find jobs stop looking for jobs, they are quitting the labour markets and in doing so, they are reducing the count of the unemployed and thereby reducing the unemployment rate.” However he says, this type of decline in the unemployment rate “is not a good sign.”
In fact, he says, “It is worse than an increasing unemployment rate. This is what has been happening in India. The labour participation rate has been falling. And, given the poor prospects of growth, this is likely to continue to happen.”
“The labour participation rate in February was 42.6 per cent”, Vyas says, adding, “In the last week of the month it had dropped to 42 per cent. The 30-day moving average labour participation rate has been falling since February 20. In the first week of March 2020 it was 42.14 per cent.”
Worrisome, during 2019, there was increase in number of persons employed in farming, which is risky business, requiring additional government support
Further, notes Vyas, “There is an additional reason why the labour participation rate may decline. This is because the quality of employment is deteriorating. The emerging composition of employment indicates a decline in good quality jobs and an increase in risky employment choices.”
Thus, “During 2019, there was a big increase, of 8 million, in the count of self-employed entrepreneurs. At the same time, salaried jobs declined by 1 million. A salaried job is arguably, the most preferred kind of employment. When these jobs decline, labour has few choices.”
What is also worrisome, Vyas says, is that during 2019, there was also an increase in the number of farmers, pointing out, “Farming is risky business which has required additional support from the central government and several state governments. Farming is not the first choice for employment of any young graduate. It can be either disguised unemployment or a compulsion.”
Then, he says, “New risks have emerged in the form of the Covid-19 virus. This threatens to shutdown economic activity in many pockets of the world. This could disrupt some supply chains in India and it has started to impact tourism and hospitality industries which are significant providers of employment.”

Comments

Iyaz Khan said…
Your post reflects my thinking, the government and the universities should work out a plan of action in which degrees will be awarded to as many students as the government and the private sector can easily give them jobs. Buy Essay Online UK

TRENDING

Wave of disappearances sparks human rights fears for activists in Delhi

By Harsh Thakor*  A philosophy student from Zakir Hussain College, Delhi University, and an activist associated with Nazariya magazine, Rudra, has been reported missing since the morning of July 19, 2025. This disappearance adds to a growing concern among human rights advocates regarding the escalating number of detentions and disappearances of activists in Delhi.

Aggressive mining operations: With 70% of Maharashtra’s forest cover, Gadchiroli is on brink of environmental collapse

By  Raj Kumar Sinha*  A looming ecological and social disaster is unfolding in the forests of Gadchiroli, Maharashtra. Over 1.23 lakh trees are set to be felled for mining activities—an alarming development that has sparked widespread protests from Adivasi communities and civil society organizations. They are urging the state and central governments to immediately halt all mining-related approvals and operations in the region. They are also calling for a complete review of all clearances, including Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) and Detailed Project Reports (DPR), based on holistic ecological, hydrological, and social assessments. These groups demand that forest corridors and tiger habitats be recognized as protected areas, and that the laws under the Forest Rights Act (2006) and PESA Act (1996) be strictly enforced. Most crucially, they insist that decisions made by tribal gram sabhas be respected through transparent public hearings.

‘Act of war on agriculture’: Aruna Rodrigues slams GM crop expansion and regulatory apathy

By Rosamma Thomas*  Expressing appreciation to the Union Agriculture Minister for inviting suggestions from farmers and concerned citizens on the sharp decline in cotton crop productivity, Aruna Rodrigues—lead petitioner in the Supreme Court case ongoing since 2005 that seeks a moratorium on genetically modified (GM) crops—wrote to Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on July 14, 2025, stating that conflicts of interest have infiltrated India’s regulatory system like a spreading cancer, including within the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR).

Overriding India's constitutional sovereignty? Citizens urge PM to reject WHO IHR amendments

By A Representative   A group of concerned Indian citizens, including medical professionals and activists, has sent an urgent appeal to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, urging him to reject proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations (IHR) before the ratification deadline of July 19, 2025. 

Farmer 'stripped, assaulted' by BSF jawan in West Bengal border village: Rights group urges NHRC to act

By A Representative  A disturbing incident of alleged custodial torture and public humiliation has been brought to the attention of the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) by a leading human rights group, Banglar Manabadhikar Suraksha Mancha (MASUM), involving a Muslim farmer in a border village of West Bengal. In a formal complaint, Kirity Roy, Secretary of MASUM and National Convenor of the Programme Against Custodial Torture & Impunity (PACTI), has urged the NHRC to take urgent action following an incident that occurred on the morning of June 12, 2025, in Hakimpur village near the India–Bangladesh border under Swarupnagar police station, North 24 Parganas district. According to the complaint, 38-year-old Jahar Ali Gazi, a resident of Hakimpur Uttar Para, was on his way to his field in Kadamtala Math around 7:30 am when he was stopped by an on-duty Border Security Force (BSF) jawan near the 7 No. Outpost of Hakimpur Border Outpost (143 Battalion). The location...

Sandra Gonzalez Sanabria: An inspiring life from Colombia’s Amazonian valley

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  In the village of Héctor Ramírez, known as Agua Bonita, in La Montañita, Caquetá, Colombia, a vision of peace and renewal is unfolding. In the pre-2016 period, this would have been nearly impossible for outsiders to visit, as it was the epicenter of violent resistance against state oppression. However, after the Peace Accord was signed between the Colombian government and former revolutionaries—marking the end of a 70-year insurgency that claimed over 400,000 lives until 2025, including civilians, rebel fighters, and security personnel—things began to change. Visiting Agua Bonita during the Global Land Forum in Bogotá revealed a village of hope and resilience. Former FARC revolutionaries have settled here and transformed the village into a center of peace and aspiration.

India’s zero-emission, eco-friendly energy strategies have a long way to go, despite impressive progress

By N.S. Venkataraman*   The recent report released by OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2025 has predicted that by the year 2050, crude oil would replace coal as India’s key energy source. Clearly, OPEC expects that India’s dependence on fossil fuels for energy will continue to remain high in one form or another.

The Empire strikes inward: Britain’s colonial legacy now targets its own citizens

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak   British colonialism may belong to the past, but the colonial mindset of the ruling elite in Britain persists. Today, these elites are applying colonial values and repressive political tactics not abroad, but to their own people. 'Home' is now where British colonialism is taking root—threatening civil liberties and undermining liberal democracy. The criminalisation of dissent has become a shared political practice across the Conservative and Labour leadership.

Ecological alarm over pumped storage projects in Western Ghats: Policy analyst writes to PM

By A Representative   In a detailed letter addressed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, energy and climate policy analyst Shankar Sharma has raised grave concerns over the escalating approval and construction of Pumped Storage Projects (PSPs) across India’s ecologically fragile river valleys. He has warned that these projects, if pursued unchecked, could result in irreparable damage to the country’s riverine ecology, biodiversity hotspots, and forest wealth—particularly in the Western Ghats.