India's investment failed to pick up despite Modi's 4 years' reforms, manufacturing hit by demonetisation, GST: Crisil

By A Representative
India's top consulting firm, Crisil, backed by its international partners, Standard & Poor, has regretted that four years after taking over the reins, and despite "a plethora of facilitations and reforms", the Modi government has "not been able to decisively push the investment cycle", insisting, "Investments have become the sore point of the Indian economy."
Crisil, in its report released last weekend, said, "The share of gross fixed capital formation, or fresh investment in the form of plant and machinery, dwellings and other buildings, etc., in GDP averaged 31% in the past four years (fiscals 2015 to 2018), compared with 33.6% in the previous five years (fiscals 2010 to 2014)."
Pointing out that the household sector "was the biggest contributor to investment in fiscal 2012 (share of ~45%)", Crisil said, "Since then, household investment has been on a consistent decline and its share in total investments was ~31% in fiscal 2017." It added, "Purchase of houses is generally the largest part (more than three-fourths) of household investment, so a slowdown in this factor is the key reason for the decline."

Underlining that "private corporate sector-led broad-based investment revival will have to wait", Crisil said, the immediate reason behind this is, being a "pre-election year, uncertainty can dampen/delay private investment." It added, "Election season is generally marked by uncertainties, both regarding change in regime and policy focus. Large investment commitments, especially by the private corporate sector, therefore, may be unlikely".
Pointing out that, because of slowdown in investment, manufacturing in India has failed to pick up, Crisil said, this has happened because of slowdown in domestic demand – both household consumption spending and investment spending – "in the four years through fiscal 2018 compared with the preceding five-year period."
Then, Crisil said, "Most of the slowdown post fiscal 2015 was seen after demonetisation. The cash crunch following demonetisation reduced private consumption growth. Within private consumption, rural consumption was particularly hit as farm realisations wilted during this period."

Slowdown in manufacturing, said Crisil, has also been caused by a fall in merchandise exports, which constitute about 14.4% of total merchandise export growth. It fell "significantly to 3.7% on-year on average in the four years beginning fiscal 2015 compared with 8.7% in the preceding five-year period. The drop came despite an improvement in world GDP growth and export volume growth in this period."
"In value terms", said Crisil, "The fall in India’s merchandise goods was sharper, with average growth between fiscals 2015 and 2018 at -0.2%, compared with 14% between fiscals 2010 and 2014. Within goods exports, manufacturing-related goods have also seen a slowdown in export growth. However, import growth of manufacturing related goods has increased during the Modi government."
Given this framework, suggested Crisil, the Modi government's target of manufacturing sector occupying 25% share in the economy by 2022, is unlikely to be met. To meet this target, it said, "manufacturing will have to grow at least 17.5% on-year, on average, between fiscals 2019 and 2022", while today the growth rate is less than half as much. "Even to raise the share to 20%, manufacturing will have to grow ast least 11% per year", it added.

Comments

Anonymous said…

Modi government's all round performance is failed

May 27, 2018

Anonymous said…

It’s a shrinking economy.

May 28, 2018

US-China truce temporary, larger trade war between two economies to continue

By Prabir Purkayastha The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, South Korea on 30 October 2025 may have brought about a temporary relief in the US-China trade war. But unless we see the fine print of the agreement, it is difficult to assess whether this is a temporary truce or the beginning of a real rapprochement between the two nations. The jury is still out on that one and we will wait for a better understanding of what has really been achieved in Busan.

When growth shrinks people: Capitalism and the biological decline of the U.S. population

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak* Critically acclaimed Hungarian-American economic historian and distinguished scholar of economic anthropometric history, Prof. John Komlos (Professor Emeritus, University of Munich), who pioneered the study of the history of human height and weight, has published an article titled “The Decline in the Physical Stature of the U.S. Population Parallels the Diminution in the Rate of Increase in Life Expectancy” on October 31, 2025, in the forthcoming issue of Social Science & Medicine (SSM) – Population Health, Volume 32, December 2025. The findings of the article present a damning critique of the barbaric nature of capitalism and its detrimental impact on human health, highlighting that the average height of Americans began to decline during the era of free-market capitalism. The study draws on an analysis of 17 surveys from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (...

Justice for Zubeen Garg: Fans persist as investigations continue in India and Singapore

By Nava Thakuria* Even a month after the death of Assam’s cultural icon Zubeen Garg in Singapore under mysterious circumstances, thousands of his fans and admirers across eastern India continue their campaign for “ JusticeForZubeenGarg .” A large digital campaign has gained momentum, with over two million social media users from around the world demanding legal action against those allegedly responsible. Although the Assam government has set up a Special Investigation Team (SIT), which has arrested seven people, and a judicial commission headed by Justice Soumitra Saikia of the Gauhati High Court to oversee the probe, public pressure for justice remains strong.

Is vaccine the Voldemort of modern medicine to be left undiscussed, unscrutinised?

By Deepika* Sridhar Vembu of Zoho stirred up an internet storm by tweeting about the possible link of autism to the growing number of vaccines given to children in India . He had only asked the parents to analyse the connection but doctors, so called public health experts vehemently started opposing Vembu's claims, labeling them "dangerous misinformation" that could erode “vaccine trust”!

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Rajiv Shah Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

New RTI draft rules inspired by citizen-unfriendly, overtly bureaucratic approach

By Venkatesh Nayak* The Department of Personnel and Training , Government of India has invited comments on a new set of Draft Rules (available in English only) to implement The Right to Information Act, 2005 . The RTI Rules were last amended in 2012 after a long period of consultation with various stakeholders. The Government’s move to put the draft RTI Rules out for people’s comments and suggestions for change is a welcome continuation of the tradition of public consultation. Positive aspects of the Draft RTI Rules While 60-65% of the Draft RTI Rules repeat the content of the 2012 RTI Rules, some new aspects deserve appreciation as they clarify the manner of implementation of key provisions of the RTI Act. These are: Provisions for dealing with non-compliance of the orders and directives of the Central Information Commission (CIC) by public authorities- this was missing in the 2012 RTI Rules. Non-compliance is increasingly becoming a major problem- two of my non-compliance cases are...

Trump escalates threats of war against Venezuela, as millions in US set to lose essential benefits

By Manolo De Los Santos The United States government is in the grips of one of its longest-running funding gaps in history. The ongoing government shutdown has already stretched beyond 30 days and now, the food security of millions of Americans is at risk as the funding to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is drying up and Trump officials have refused to tap into contingency funds . Approximately 42 million individuals per month rely on SNAP benefits and are set to lose them beginning on November 1.

Mergers and privatisation: The Finance Minister’s misguided banking agenda

By Thomas Franco The Finance Minister has once again revived talk of merging two or three large public sector banks to make them globally competitive. Reports also suggest that the government is considering appointing Managing Directors in public sector banks from the private sector. Both moves would strike at the heart of India’s public banking system . Privatisation undermines the constitutional vision of social and economic justice, and such steps could lead to irreversible damage.

Gujarat civil society to move Supreme Court against controversial electoral roll revision

By Rajiv Shah A recent, well-attended meeting of Gujarat civil society activists in Ahmedabad , held to discuss the impact of the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, has decided to file a petition in the Supreme Court against the controversial exercise initiated by the Election Commission of India (ECI) across the country. Announcing this, senior High Court advocate Anand Yagnik , who heads the Gujarat chapter of the People’s Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL), said that a committee has already been formed to examine the pros and cons of SIR. “While the SIR exercise began in Gujarat on November 4 and is scheduled to continue for a month, we will file a supporting petition in the case against SIR in the Gujarat High Court or the Supreme Court after observing how it proceeds in the state,” he said. Yagnik’s announcement followed senior advocate Shahrukh Alam —who is arguing the SIR case in the Supreme Court—urging Gujarat’s civil society to also file ...

Search This Blog