Skip to main content

India's unemployment rate 8.2%, highest in 11 months, greater unemployment 15%: Top consultant CMIE

By Our Representative
One of India's premier independent consultants, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has estimated that India's urban unemployment rate in the week ended October 8 is 8.2 per cent, the highest in the past 11 months. This has happened, says CMIE, despite the fact that the "urban labour participation rate has recovered to its level during the last December-January period."

Explains CMIE, "The rise in labour participation rate and the unemployment rate shows that labour is returning back to the labour markets but it isn’t finding jobs", adding, "The fall in labour participation rate began soon after demonetisation. We are probably seeing a recovery after about a year."
Based on surveys carried out jointly with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the CMIE believes, it's data, which reflected in its about-185-page statistical volume, "can help us understand employment and unemployment in India through the demonetisation period, and going ahead, through the Goods and Services Tax (GST)."
The volume, which is produced at the interval of each quarter, "provide estimates of the labour force, labour participation rate, employed and unemployed persons and the unemployment rate", it adds.
Pointing out that the methodology used by the volume shows a "useful set of additional indicators" about "greater labour force and the greater unemployment rate", CMIE regrets, a person is considered unemployed only if s/he is "willing to work and is actively looking for a job but, is unable to get a job."
Carried out by Mahesh Vyas, Managing Director and CEO, the CMIE analysis of the data says, while calculating unemployment, "three conditions must be fulfilled -- the person must be unemployed, must be willing to work and, must be actively looking for a job." It adds, "The last criterion implies applying for jobs, appearing for interviews, making enquiries for jobs, standing in queues for jobs, etc."
Mahesh Vyas
However, unfortunately, CMIE underlines, "If an unemployed person is willing to work but is not actively looking for a job then s/he is not counted as an unemployed person for calculating the unemployment rate." Calling it an "international practice and this is what we follow", the CMIE says, if one considers as the unemployed those who are "willing to work but are not actively looking for a job", the actual unemployment today would around 15 per cent.
"During 2016, the unemployment rate was 8.2 per cent", equal to what it is today, "but, the greater unemployment rate was 15 per cent", says CMIE, adding, actually, "the labour force is simply the sum of the unemployed as defined above and the employed. And, the unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the labour force."
Answering the question why "should an unemployed person who is willing to work not be looking for a job?", CMIE says, "Possibly, because such a person does not believe that a job is available. Maybe, there is a seasonality in seeking jobs. Or, there could be social constraints that refrain a person from seeking a job."
CMIE insists, "While the reasons for such behavior could be interesting, it is perhaps, very important to know the size of such persons who are willing to work but do not actively look for jobs."
" The sum of unemployed who are willing to work and are actively looking for a job and, unemployed who are willing but not actively looking for a job is the greater unemployed", CMIE says, adding, "Interestingly, the unemployed who are willing to work but are not actively looking for a job was about 70 per cent of the size of the unemployed who are willing and looking for a job."

Comments

TRENDING

Missed call drive for VVPAT verification follows online plea to "pressure" poll panel

By Our Representative
Several political activists have begun a new campaign, asking concerned citizens to give a missed call on 9667655855 to “support the demand that 2019 Loksabha elections must be declared only after verification of 50% electronic voting machines (EVMs) with Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) receipts.” The effort, supported by civil society networks across India, is meant to "further pressure" India's election machinery to ensure that the poll outcome becomes more transparent.

Now, top Gujarat "litterateur" close to Modi says: Godse was patriot, so was Gandhi

By Rajiv Shah
A little over a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticized BJP candidate from Bhopal Pragya Thakur for calling Nathuram Godse a patriot saying he would never forgive her for the remark, a top Sangh Parivar ideologue, known to close to Modi in Gujarat, has supported her, saying her statement should be seen “within a context.” Thakur won from Bhopal by more than 3.5 lakh votes defeating her nearest rival, veteran Congressman and ex-Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh.

Opposition refuses to legally challenge EVMs amidst plans of "back to ballot" protest

Counterview Desk
Even as opposition to the use of electronic voting machines (EVMs) allegedly to rig polls is growing, a group of prominent citizens who have come together to form the EVM Virodhi Rashtriya Jan Andolan has controversially called for a national protest against EVMs on May 30, demanding future elections should be held only on ballot paper.

When a Pak scribe said Modi has 'proved' Jinnah’s two nation theory right...

By Zafar Agha*
It was around nine in the morning on May 24, 2019, a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi stormed the Lok Sabha with 300-plus MPs. It was a call from a journalist friend, Muzamal Suhrawardy, from Lahore, Pakistan. I ignored the call. We liberals had a depressing day the previous evening as the opposition to Modi and BJP collapsed. The results belied reports from the ground and even assessments made by colleagues.

It's now official: Akshay Kumar has not been conferred honorary Canadian citizenship

By Our Representative
It is now official. Super-star Akshay Kumar has not been conferred any honorary citizenship by Canadian authorities, as claimed by him ahead of the 2019 elections. In reply to a query by Roshan Shah, who is a Canadian citizen living in Waterloo, Ontario, and belongs to Ahmedabad, the country’s authorities dealing with issues related with immigration, refugees and citizenship in Canada have said that only six persons have so far been granted honorary citizenship.

Savarkar in Ahmedabad "declared support" to two-nation theory in 1937, followed by Jinnah three years later

By Our Representative
One of the top freedom fighters whom BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi revere the most, Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, was also a great supporter of the two nation theory for India, one for Hindus another for Muslims, claims a new expose on the man who is also known to be the original proponent of the concept of Hindutva.

Govt of India overestimated GDP by 2.5%, must restore reputational damage: Ex-CEA

By Rajiv Shah
Top economist Arvind Subramanian has said that changes brought about by the Government of India in data sources and methodology for estimating the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) since 2011-12 “has led to a significant overestimation of growth”. While official estimates place annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 percent, the actual growth may have been 4½ percent, ranging from 3 ½ to 5 ½ percent during the period, he adds.

If EC's credibility is under question, shouldn't one "assume" EVMs might be tampered?

Counterview Desk
Gauhar Raza, scientist, documentary film maker and poet; senior human rights activist Shabnam Hashmi of the Act Now for Harmony and Democracy (ANHAD); military veteran Major Priyadarshi Chowdhury (retd); and Sucheta De and Sandeep Saurav of the All India Students' Association (AISA), have asked “individuals, organisations and people's movements” to send their endorsement to an appeal they have prepared on Electronic Voting Machine (EVM).

Common thread of Modi, political Hinduism, nationalism? 'Contest' of ideas isn't over

By Salman Khurshid*
Losing the 2019 election and that too in a somewhat extreme manner has confronted us with unexpected challenges: Our leadership has naturally taken it very hard and to heart but with suggested options that we cannot imagine or contemplate. Hopefully the emotions will settle soon and give us the direction to pick up the pieces and march again.

Will minorities in India be 2nd class citizens? Wake up call: Be a 'communicating' Church

By Fr Cedric Prakash sj*
India today is at a defining moment of her history. There is so much that has taken place in the past five years (and particularly in the last ten days)- that several citizens of the country are genuinely concerned about the future of the country! Will democracy survive? Will key elements of the Constitution be changed?