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The 8.7-crore question: India’s demographic dividend is 'turning into a warning'

By Mohd. Ziyaullah Khan 
The most worrying number is not 8.7 crore. It is how easily we can turn that number into a joke.
Of late, a number has been circulating on social media: 8.7 crore Indians aged 15–29 are neither studying, working nor undergoing training. The number is real, but the viral interpretation is often misleading.
According to NITI Aayog’s August 2026 report, Reimagining Skilling for Viksit Bharat@2047, an estimated 8.7 crore young Indians aged 15–29 fall into the NEET category—those not in education, employment or training. The estimate is based on the 78th round of the National Sample Survey conducted in 2021. NITI Aayog says the figure represents about 11% of the population segment covered in its analysis.
Before turning this into another meme about India’s “lazy youth”, we should ask a more uncomfortable question: Why are millions of young Indians unable to move from education to skills, and from skills to meaningful work?
That is the real crisis. If political parties fail to understand it, a new “Janta Party” may emerge—not necessarily as a formal political party, but as a generation whose central demand is brutally simple: Give us a future.
The word NEET is dangerously easy to misunderstand. A person classified as NEET is not necessarily sitting at home doing nothing. The category simply means that the person is not currently in education, employment or training.
That distinction matters. NITI Aayog’s report says around 88% of this NEET population is engaged in domestic duties. A large proportion of those counted are performing unpaid household or family responsibilities.
Consider a young woman who has completed school or college but is expected to care for children or elderly relatives while managing cooking and household responsibilities.
Statistically, she may be “not working”. In reality, she may be working every day—without a salary, employment contract, social security or career progression. Calling her lazy is not merely insensitive. It is statistically misleading.
Caregiving responsibilities, household schedules, inadequate transport, safety concerns, lack of childcare and inflexible training arrangements can all restrict women’s participation in education, skilling and employment. The problem, therefore, is not simply that young people do not want to work. For many, the system makes productive participation difficult.
India has expanded education dramatically. The share of young people with secondary or higher education increased from 27.9% in 2000 to 58.3% in 2022. The share with graduate-level or higher education rose from 5% to 14.7%.
That sounds like spectacular progress. But NITI Aayog’s 2026 report, citing the Economic Survey 2024–25, notes that only 8.25% of graduates are employed in roles aligned with their qualifications. Graduate unemployment is estimated at around 13%.
A young person spends years in school, then college, perhaps postgraduate study. Families spend lakhs. Students prepare for examinations for years. Yet their education may still have little connection with the job market.
This is not merely a youth problem. It is a structural failure of the education-to-employment pipeline. India is producing degrees faster than it is producing career pathways.
The traditional formula was simple: study, get a degree, get a job and build a career.
That formula is breaking down.
Curricula often remain outdated, while practical training, workplace exposure, projects and industry interaction remain insufficient. Only about 4.1% of India’s 15–59 population was formally skilled, according to PLFS 2023–24.
The future economy will not reward certificates alone. It will reward people who can code, design, repair, analyse, sell, build, manage, communicate, operate machinery, work with AI, handle data, solve problems, create businesses and continuously learn. A degree without employable capability is becoming an increasingly fragile asset.
It would be convenient to blame young people entirely, but labour-market data does not allow us to do that.
India’s PLFS 2025 report puts unemployment among people aged 15–29 at 9.9%, down from 10.3% in 2024. Youth unemployment was higher in urban India, at 13.6%, compared with 8.3% in rural India. Young women in urban areas faced unemployment of 18.9%.
There has been improvement, but millions still compete for a limited pool of decent opportunities.
Unemployment is only part of the story. Someone in an unstable, low-paying job unrelated to their education may technically be employed. Someone working intermittently through the gig economy may be counted as employed without having security. Someone earning barely enough to survive may be employed without being able to build a future. Employment statistics alone cannot capture the quality of employment.
The International Labour Organization estimates that the global youth NEET rate remained around 20.4% in 2024, with South Asia projected at 26.6% in 2025. India occupies a special position because it has one of the world’s largest young populations. UNFPA estimates that India had around 257 million people aged 15–24 in 2024, while the working-age population aged 15–59 was projected to rise from approximately 936 million in 2024 to 1.027 billion by 2036.
This is India’s extraordinary advantage. But a demographic dividend is not automatic. Young people do not create a demographic dividend merely by existing. They need education, skills, health, mobility, capital and jobs. They need entrepreneurs willing to hire them, employers willing to train them and an economy capable of absorbing millions of new workers.
Roughly 12–14 million people enter India’s workforce every year. If a young population has aspirations but no pathways to fulfil them, a demographic dividend can become a demographic disaster.
The 8.7-crore figure becomes even more complicated when examined through gender. If nearly 88% of NEET youth are engaged in domestic duties, we must ask: Who is doing the unpaid work that allows the rest of the economy to function?
Cooking, cleaning, childcare, eldercare and household management rarely appear in conventional employment statistics. Yet without them, millions of employed people could not go to work.
India faces a paradox: millions of young people are outside the formal labour market while performing work the economy depends upon. The answer cannot simply be, “Teach them skills.”
Skills are useless if a woman cannot safely travel to a training centre. A certificate is useless if caregiving prevents her from leaving home. Training is ineffective without childcare, safe transport, credit and access to markets.
For generations, Indian students have been encouraged to pursue a narrow list of “safe” careers: doctor, engineer, government employee, banker, teacher or lawyer. But the modern economy is creating specialised careers in cybersecurity, cloud computing, AI operations, data analytics, digital marketing, renewable energy, robotics, medical technology, advanced manufacturing, logistics, drone operations, healthcare technology and skilled trades.
The problem is not simply that young Indians lack ambition. Many do not know what options exist.
Career counselling cannot mean inviting a motivational speaker once a year. Students need mentors, internships, workplace visits, aptitude assessments and information about qualifications, salaries and future demand. They must learn that success does not require one particular degree.
India’s cultural hierarchy often celebrates white-collar professions while looking down on skilled trades. Yet Germany’s apprenticeship model shows the power of combining classroom education with workplace training. India has an apprenticeship system, but it remains far below its potential, especially among micro and small enterprises.
Imagine every college student graduating with a degree, workplace experience, an industry-recognised skill and a professional network.
That would transform the transition from college to career.
Businesses also have a responsibility. Companies cannot demand experience for every entry-level job and then complain that graduates are not job-ready. Industry must help design curricula, create apprenticeships and participate in training. Government must build the ecosystem. Educational institutions must modernise learning. Industry must participate in hiring. Young people must keep learning and adapting.
The viral meme asks: “What are 8.7 crore young Indians doing?”
The better question is: “What have we done to ensure that 8.7 crore young Indians have a pathway forward?”
Behind every number is a person: a dropout, an unemployed graduate, a young woman caring for family, a diploma holder working below their skill level, a rural student unable to afford training or a talented teenager who does not know which career to pursue.
India’s youth are also a political constituency. They have smartphones, global comparisons and rising expectations. They can see salaries, universities, entrepreneurs and lifestyles elsewhere. Then they return to an economy where securing the first decent job can be extraordinarily difficult.
They do not necessarily demand government jobs. They demand economic dignity: the ability to earn, become independent, support parents, build a business, acquire a home, experiment, fail and try again. That is not unreasonable. It is the foundation of a functioning economy.
India needs a comprehensive youth-to-work strategy. Career awareness should begin in school, with counselling, aptitude assessments and exposure to vocational pathways. Degrees should become more employable through practical projects, digital skills, communication, internships and industry exposure. Apprenticeships should be mainstreamed so that students gain real workplace experience before graduation. Skilling should be affordable and flexible, particularly for women, caregivers and rural youth, and linked to local demand. Most importantly, outcomes should be measured not merely by certificates issued, but by employment, wages, retention, entrepreneurship and movement into better-paying work.
A certificate is not an outcome. A sustainable livelihood is.
India’s greatest resource is its people, and its greatest advantage is the size of its young population. But that advantage will matter only if young people have opportunities to become productive.
The 8.7-crore figure should not be used to insult India’s youth. It should challenge schools, universities, governments, employers, families and young people themselves.
The question is not whether India’s youth are lazy. The question is whether India is giving them enough reasons and enough opportunities to work, learn, build and dream.
We cannot spend the demographic window arguing about memes.
We must build schools that prepare students for life, colleges connected to industry, businesses that create first-job opportunities, affordable skilling systems, supportive families and a culture of lifelong learning.
The 8.7-crore figure should not become a punchline. It should become a wake-up call.
A generation should not be defined by a viral meme. It should be empowered to build something meaningful.
The question India’s political class must answer is not, “Why are young people doing nothing?”
It is: “What are we doing to ensure that India’s young people can do something?”
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Mohd. Ziyaullah Khan is a freelance content writer and editor based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, and co-founder of TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media

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