India's Muslim, Dalit segregation nears US Black-White levels: Chicago study

By Rajiv Shah 

A comprehensive new study examining 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods across India has uncovered deep patterns of residential segregation and systematic inequality in access to public services, with findings that researchers say rival the scale of racial segregation in the United States.

The working paper, authored by Sam Asher, Kiritarth Jha, Paul Novosad, Anjali Adukia, and Brandon Tan, analyzed data from approximately 400,000 urban neighborhoods and 1.1 million rural neighborhoods — covering over 300 million marginalized individuals — to document how Scheduled Caste (SC) and Muslim communities are concentrated in neighborhoods with fewer schools, clinics, and basic infrastructure.

Segregation Levels Comparable to the United States

The study, "Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5m Neighborhoods," finds that segregation of Scheduled Castes — historically known as Dalits or "Untouchables" — and Muslims in India is "high by global standards, and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the U.S."

Using standardized measures, researchers found that the urban segregation of Indian Muslims is similar to current segregation levels of Black Americans in U.S. cities. India is "considerably more segregated than Brazil," the only other major lower-middle-income country with comparable data available.

The Muslim population distribution is notably bimodal: 26% of urban Muslims live in neighborhoods that are more than 80% Muslim, while 17% of urban SCs live in neighborhoods that are more than 80% SC.

Public Service Disparities Are Large and Systematic

The study -- published as the University of Chicago Stone Center Working Paper Series Paper No. 26-01 -- documents that "access to public services is systematically worse in neighborhoods where marginalized groups live" — affecting nearly every local service measured.

The magnitude of disparities is substantial. According to the paper: "Compared with a 0% Muslim neighborhood, a 100% Muslim neighborhood in the same city is 10% less likely to have piped water and only half as likely to have a secondary school."

A fully Muslim neighborhood has 13% fewer primary schools, 46% fewer secondary schools, and 20% fewer health centers than a neighborhood with no Muslims.

For infrastructure services, SC neighborhoods face even steeper disadvantages. The study found SC neighborhoods have disproportionately worse access to water, electricity, and sewerage infrastructure than Muslim neighborhoods.

The Critical Finding: Disparities Are Hidden at Higher Government Levels

Perhaps the most striking finding concerns where these inequalities occur. The researchers demonstrate that nearly all regressive allocation happens "across neighborhoods within cities — at the most informal and least studied form of government."

When examining data at the district or state level, the pattern reverses. Districts and subdistricts with many SCs actually have more public facilities on average. But this apparent advantage is completely undone at the neighborhood level.

"These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy," the authors warn.

For Muslims, there is no advantage at higher levels at all — just the neighborhood disadvantage. Without neighborhood-level data, researchers would detect no Muslim disadvantage in urban areas and would substantially underestimate rural disparities.

Different Patterns for Different Groups

The study reveals distinct dynamics for each marginalized group. The allocation of secondary schools and health centers is "progressive across states, districts, towns, and villages" for SCs — areas with more SCs have more facilities. But "within towns and villages, the distribution of schools and clinics is highly regressive across neighborhoods, undoing almost all of the progressivity at higher levels of government."

For Muslims, the allocation is unfavorable at every level, with the neighborhood disadvantage being largest.

The paper notes: "For schools and clinics, facilities provided entirely by government, the disadvantage in Muslim neighborhoods is double the disadvantage in SC neighborhoods," echoing qualitative literature finding that Muslims report difficulty obtaining public facilities from their representatives.

What Drives These Patterns?

The researchers identify several correlates of segregation. Larger, poorer, and older cities tend to have higher segregation for both groups. Cities that have experienced more Hindu-Muslim violence since 1950 show higher segregation — "consistent with the narrative of Muslim segregation as a defense against violence."

Strikingly, the study finds "a strong negative correlation between Muslim segregation and upward mobility" — defined as increase in educational position across generations. This is particularly notable because "Muslims are the least upwardly mobile major social group in India."

Private providers do not fill the gap. The study found that "private services are also less accessible in MG neighborhoods," possibly because residents have limited ability to pay.

Policy Implications

The findings have significant implications for how India targets public services. Federal and state policies largely allocate funding at aggregate levels — state, district, or subdistrict — while cross-neighborhood distribution is determined through less formal local processes.

"Consequently, a policy maker observing school allocation only at the district level could arrive at incorrect conclusions regarding access disparities and the efficacy of equalization policies," the authors write.

The study also documents that SC urban segregation marginally diminished from 2001 to 2011, driven largely by new towns where segregation is lower. But the overall patterns remain deeply entrenched.

A Critical Juncture for Urbanizing India

The paper draws a sharp warning from American history: "The historic tolerance for residential segregation and unequal access to public services in the U.S. has prevented generations of individuals from accessing opportunity, and is a central fracture in a highly polarized political system."

Noting that India's cities are still rapidly growing, the researchers conclude: "At an earlier stage of development and with cities still rapidly growing, India has the opportunity to make a different set of choices. By highlighting segregation in India and documenting the concomitant disparities in access to public services, we draw attention to the critical choices that lie ahead for India and other urbanizing lower- and middle-income countries around the world."

The study analyzed data from the 2011-12 Socioeconomic and Caste Census and the 2013 Economic Census, covering 196 million urban and 571 million rural respondents. Muslim identity was inferred from names using a neural network that achieved 97% out-of-sample accuracy.