2026 assembly elections: The fall of old guards and the rise of new forces

By Raqif Makhdoomi* 

Once a formidable voice against the NDA government, Mamata Banerjee now finds herself a defeated candidate. Her loss from Bhabanipur to BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari by a margin exceeding fifteen thousand votes marks a dramatic turning point in West Bengal’s political landscape. For the BJP, Bengal had long been a strategic objective, and this victory signals not just electoral success but a symbolic breakthrough in a state that had resisted its advance for years.

There is an irony that cannot be missed. Mamata Banerjee, who once denied Union Home Minister Amit Shah permission to land his helicopter in the state, now stands outside the legislative assembly altogether. The counting process itself reflected the uncertainty of the moment—she trailed initially, surged ahead for a while, and then fell behind again before finally losing. Her defeat is not hers alone; it represents a broader setback for those who sought to build a strong and cohesive opposition to the NDA at the national level.

Mamata Banerjee’s political journey has been long and consequential. As one of the longest-serving Chief Ministers of West Bengal, her victory in May 2011 ended 34 years of Left Front rule—one of the longest continuous elected governments in the world. Although the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), founded in 1998, had made earlier electoral inroads—particularly in the 2000 Kolkata Municipal Corporation elections and the 2001 Assembly polls—it was the 2011 mandate that transformed it into the ruling force in the state.

Her career, however, extends far beyond Bengal. A former Union Railway Minister, she began her political life with the Indian National Congress, where she spent over two decades before charting her own course. Over the years, the Trinamool Congress experimented with alliances, including a stint with the NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure. The party also sought to expand its footprint beyond Bengal, contesting elections or maintaining organisational presence in states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Haryana, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Punjab.

In a political arena often dominated by men, Mamata Banerjee carved out a distinctive identity. Her simple attire—chappals and a white sari—became a symbol of political austerity and resistance. She led numerous rallies, projecting herself as a grassroots leader who remained accessible and unpretentious. Over 15 years in office, beginning on May 20, 2011, she shaped West Bengal’s governance and political culture in ways that continue to be debated. Whether one agrees with her policies or not, her stature as a national political figure is difficult to deny. Her ability to connect with people and manage crises has often set her apart from her contemporaries.

Yet, the elections of May 4 signal more than just her personal defeat. They point to a wider churn in Indian politics. The decline of long-entrenched political formations appears to be accelerating. The Left, once a formidable force in Indian politics, now faces near-total marginalisation. From being the principal opposition in the early decades after Independence to forming governments in states like West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, its journey has been marked by both ideological influence and organisational strength. At its peak around 2008, the Left held significant parliamentary strength and wielded influence over national coalitions. However, successive electoral setbacks—losing West Bengal in 2011 and Tripura in 2018—have steadily eroded its base.

The developments in Kerala further underscore this shift. With the Congress returning to power there, the Left’s last significant stronghold has slipped away, marking a historic moment: for the first time in decades, no Indian state is governed by a Left party. This decline reflects not just electoral losses but deeper questions about the Left’s ability to adapt to changing political and economic realities.

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu offers a parallel story of political upheaval. In a surprising turn, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin lost his own seat, ending the DMK’s hold on power. Under his leadership, the state had performed strongly on several indicators, including education, healthcare and economic contribution to the national GDP. Yet, electoral politics often defies administrative performance. Voters chose change, underscoring the unpredictable nature of democratic mandates.

Riding this wave of change is actor-turned-politician Vijay, whose party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, secured a decisive victory with 107 seats in the 234-member Assembly. His rise represents a broader trend in Indian politics—the emergence of new faces who challenge established political hierarchies and appeal directly to public sentiment.

The 2026 Assembly elections, therefore, are not merely about wins and losses. They mark a generational and structural shift in Indian politics. Established leaders and parties are being tested as never before, while new entrants are reshaping the political discourse. The electorate, more assertive and less predictable, is signalling its willingness to disrupt the status quo.

For Mamata Banerjee and others who have defined regional and national politics for decades, this moment may represent an end of an era. For emerging leaders, it is an opportunity. And for Indian democracy, it is yet another reminder of its capacity for renewal and reinvention.

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*Law student and human rights activist