The great Bengal shift: Voter anger or political engineering?

By Rajkumar Sinha* 

For decades, West Bengal was governed by the Left Front under the leadership of Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, from 1977 to 2011. This uninterrupted 34-year rule left a deep imprint on the state’s political culture. During this long phase, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remained virtually irrelevant in Bengal’s political landscape. The turning point came in 2011, when Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) came to power, bringing an end to Left rule. Over the next fifteen years, the TMC effectively decimated the Left parties, creating a political vacuum in the anti-TMC space. The BJP’s rise in Bengal is closely linked to its ability to fill this vacuum.

After the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, under Narendra Modi’s leadership, began expanding aggressively across India. In West Bengal too, it steadily strengthened its organizational base. While its success in 2014 was limited, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections marked a dramatic surge, with the BJP winning 18 seats. This momentum continued into the 2021 Assembly elections, where it secured 77 seats, signaling its intent to emerge as a formidable force. Its vote share also rose sharply. The party benefited from defections of several TMC leaders and built a strong booth-level structure. At the same time, the BJP accused the TMC of “Muslim appeasement,” which contributed to the polarization of Hindu voters and opened up new political opportunities for the party.

Despite an aggressive campaign in 2021, the BJP fell short as the TMC registered a resounding victory. Mamata Banerjee’s strong personal image played a decisive role. She was successfully projected as “Bengal’s daughter,” while the BJP was portrayed as an “outsider” party. The “Bengal versus outsiders” narrative resonated widely. Welfare schemes such as Kanyashree, Rupashree, and Swasthya Sathi also secured substantial support from women voters for the TMC. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the contest between the BJP and TMC remained intense, but the TMC managed to retain its grip.

A frequently debated question is whether Mamata Banerjee’s own political strategies created space for the BJP’s expansion in Bengal. Notably, she has had a long and significant history of working alongside the BJP. After breaking away from the Congress, she founded the TMC on January 1, 1998, and in the same year allied with the BJP to build a strong front against the Left. Following the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and Mamata Banerjee served as Railway Minister until 2001. After the Tehelka defense scandal, she briefly severed ties, only to rejoin the NDA in 2003 and serve in the Vajpayee government until 2004. The TMC and BJP even contested the 2004 Lok Sabha and 2006 Assembly elections together. After electoral setbacks in 2006, Mamata Banerjee gradually distanced herself from the BJP and later allied with the Congress, ultimately coming to power in 2011. This earlier phase of cooperation with the BJP helped her establish herself as a major political figure in Bengal.

Electoral politics in Bengal has long been influenced by violence and fear. However, in the latest election, the Election Commission of India deployed nearly 250,000 central paramilitary personnel in an unprecedented move to ensure a more controlled and independent voting process. As a result, the so-called “local influence” and climate of fear that had previously shaped outcomes in many regions were significantly weakened, allowing a clearer expression of public opinion.

This election also challenged the belief that identity politics, Bengali sub-nationalism, or aggressive street protests alone are sufficient to retain power. Voters demonstrated that if employment, security, and transparent governance are not delivered, they are willing to bring about change. The BJP recorded an increase of nearly 8 percent in vote share, while the TMC saw a decline of around 7 percent, enabling the BJP to secure a sweeping victory with more than 200 seats and take control of West Bengal.

At the same time, concerns remain. Around 2.7 million voters were reportedly unable to cast their votes, as the Election Commission and later the Supreme Court could not resolve questions regarding their eligibility before polling. Opposition parties have also raised questions about the role of the Election Commission.

The BJP’s rise in West Bengal cannot be attributed to a single leader or factor. It is the outcome of shifting political equations, sustained organizational efforts, and evolving socio-political conditions. Bengal’s politics remains fluid and dynamic, with each election bringing new alignments and challenges. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the struggle for political dominance in the state is far from over, and the coming years are likely to reveal many new dimensions.

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*Bargi Dam Displaced and Affected Association