Skip to main content

Indian foreign policy failure? China to take advantage of Iran's 'no' to Chabahar project

By Shabir Ahmad*
In a major foreign policy setback for India, Iran has decided to drop India from the strategic Chabahar rail project by citing a delayed funding from Indian side. This strategic railway project in Iran was supposed to be executed by Ircon International Limited, formerly Indian Railway Construction Limited, in association with the Iranian railways.
The construction of this project has been delayed over the past four years. By citing India's delay in funding the project, Iran has decided to drop India from the project and execute it on its own. To understand why this is a major foreign policy setback for India, one needs to understand the strategic significance of the Chabahar port and the Chabahar railway project.
The Chabahar port is located in South-East Iran on its Arabian coast. It occupies a strategic location. It is a strategic choke point through which all the oil shipments from the Persian Gulf enters the Arabian sea. From here, the shipments move on to the Indian Ocean region and the Mediterranean sea.
It is also not without significance that, to the east of Chabahar port, we have the Gwadar port of Pakistan that is located in its Baluchistan province, which is a part of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Keeping these factors in view, India has desired to establish close connectivity with Afghanistan and central Asian countries, and having access to the Chabahar port is considered very critical for access these countries. Indeed, India enjoys close political and strategic relations with Afghanistan as well as with all central Asian countries. 
These countries are very rich in natural resources, including oil and natural gas, hydro-power, valuable metal, etc. With an eye these resources, India has sought to establish a close trade relationships with them.
A major roadblock for India's ambitions has been lack of connectivity between India and Afghanistan and between India and the central Asian countries. India shares no land border with any of the central Asian countries and with Afghanistan. A small 80 km border with Afghanistan which India claims is part of the Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK).
The only land route through which India can connect with these countries passes through Pakistan, but any such land transit corridor that connects India with Afghanistan and central Asian countries is not feasible, because Pakistan would not permit such land based transit connectivity with India. Even if it permits such land corridor, it would be highly vulnerable due to constant political instability between India and Pakistan.
In order to bypass this handicap posed by Pakistan, India came up with the grand and ambitious plan to connect with Afghanistan and central Asian countries via Iran. As a part of this strategy, India has long pursued the development of the strategic Chabahar port and a railway line under a road project that subsequently connects Chabahar port with Afghanistan.
This, it was thought, would allow India to establish maritime connectivity with the Chabahar port through the Arabian sea and then further transfer goods and products through the land route all the way up to Zahedan, which is an Iranian border town located at its borders with Afghanistan. From here, the road and rail corridor will connect with Afghanistan's border town Zaranj, which is already a part of the Zaranj-Daleram Highway that has been constructed by India.
In 2016, India, Iran and Afghanistan signed a tri-lateral agreement to develop the Chabahar port and the Chabahar railway project. Last year, Iran gave operational control over one of the terminals of the Chabahar port, and through this terminal India started trading with Afghanistan. 
India and Afghanistan also established an air corridor in order to facilitate the transportation of perishable goods and other items. But with Iran deciding to drop India from any further involvement in the Chabahar railway project by citing India's inability to fund, things seem to be moving in the reverse gear.
No doubt, recently Pakistan decided to allow Afghanistan to take its exports that are headed towards India via Pakistani territory by making use of integrated check posts that India and Pakistan have established at the Wagah-Attari border. Under a Pakistan-Afghanistan trade agreement, Pakistan is supposed to help and promote Afghan exports.
But in view current hostilities with India, Pakistan would never permit Indian exports that are headed towards Afghanistan and other central Asian countries. Even if it permits Indian exports, that would be highly volatile and vulnerable due to frequent tensions between the two countries. 
Fear of American sanctions pushed India to slow down its funding and as well as its construction activities with regard to Chabahar port and Chabahar railway line
Iran’s decision to drop India out of the Chabahar railway project is seen as related to the ongoing geopolitics involving US, Iran, China and India. Iran has been placed under economic sanctions by the US, which is essentially looking to cripple its nuclear weapons programme. Through these sanctions, the US is looking to squeeze the key sectors of Iranian economy, oil and energy.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
Both India and Iran have not only shared close trade relations but they strategic relations. In fact, India and Iran coordinated with each other in order to stabilise Afghanistan, ripped with extremist violence. However, the close economic and strategic relationship between India and Iran has come under severe pressure due to American sanctions.
When the first set of sanctions were imposed upon Iran by the US, India managed to bypass these by working out an alternative payments system for Iranian oil. This pleased the Iranian government about India's conviction to protect the economic relationship, especially oil imports, from the threat of American sanctions.
But in order to please the US, India decided to back out from the Iran-Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project. This way, India was trying to strike a balance between the interests of the US and Iran. It was trying to protect its own national interests, especially in its energy security. In return, India tried to reward Iran by allowing greater Indian involvement in the development of the Chabahar port and the Chabahar railway project.
However, recently, the Donald Trump administration decided to walk out of the Iranian nuclear deal, and it decided to reimpose economic sanctions against Iran. Since then, the Trump administration has been exerting pressure on all the countries that import oil from Iran, including India, to zero out their oil imports. This time India succumbed to American pressure. 
It has not only reduced oil imports from Iran. It has almost zeroed out oil imports. Until recently, Iran, which was the top oil supplier for India, has been cut off from exporting to India as a result of American sanctions.
The fear of American sanctions pushed India to slow down its funding and as well as its construction activities with regard to the Chabahar port and the Chabahar railway line. No doubt, India managed to convince the US and gained one-time exemption for the Chabahar railway project. Indian investments and involvement in the port and the railway project were exempted from the threat of American sanctions.
Yet, despite of this exemption, India has failed to execute the project on time, mainly due to technical and logistical delays on the part of India. In the eyes of Iran, India has succumbed the fear of American sanctions – not only has it failed to protect Iran’s trading relations, it has also failed to deliver the committed project on time.
Alongside, Iran has seen India's growing contiguity with the US and Israel with lot of suspicion. Over the last one-and-a-half years, Iran has adopted aggressive and hostile approach towards India, especially in International platforms.
Thus, at the UN and the conferences of Islamic nations, Iran has repeatedly brought up human rights violations by Indian security forces in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Iran also sided with Pakistan,
The author
Turkey and Malaysia in criticising India's decision to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A. These factors have pushed Iran closer to China, thus posing a major threat to India's national interests in the region.
Quite like India, China is heavily dependent on oil imports from Iran. In fact, it is one of the top recipients of Iranian oil. Iran and China have come very to close to signing a landmark agreement that involves massive economic and strategic partnership between the two countries. 
As per the agreement, China is expected to invest billions of dollars in the Iranian economy, especially in oil and energy sectors and in the port and infrastructure, which have been hardest hit as the result of the American sanctions.
Since China has the capacity and capability to bypass American sanctions, Iran might be looking to hand over strategic infrastructural projects such as the Chabahar port and the Chabahar railway project to China. This could possibly explain as to why Iran has decided to drop India out of the project. It is not just the Chinese factor which has led to these developments. It is also the result of India's failure to protect its own national interests.
---
*Freelance writer and IAS aspirant from Raiyar Doodhpathri, Jammu and Kashmir

Comments

TRENDING

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor*  This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

Two more "aadhaar-linked" Jharkhand deaths: 17 die of starvation since Sept 2017

Kaleshwar's sons Santosh and Mantosh Counterview Desk A fact-finding team of the Right to Feed Campaign, pointing towards the death of two more persons due to starvation in Jharkhand, has said that this has happened because of the absence of aadhaar, leading to “persistent lack of food at home and unavailability of any means of earning.” It has disputed the state government claims that these deaths are due to reasons other than starvation, adding, the authorities have “done nothing” to reduce the alarming state of food insecurity in the state.

Epic war against caste system is constitutional responsibility of elected government

Edited by well-known Gujarat Dalit rights leader Martin Macwan, the book, “Bhed-Bharat: An Account of Injustice and Atrocities on Dalits and Adivasis (2014-18)” (available in English and Gujarati*) is a selection of news articles on Dalits and Adivasis (2014-2018) published by Dalit Shakti Prakashan, Ahmedabad. Preface to the book, in which Macwan seeks to answer key questions on why the book is needed today: *** The thought of compiling a book on atrocities on Dalits and thus present an overall Indian picture had occurred to me a long time ago. Absence of such a comprehensive picture is a major reason for a weak social and political consciousness among Dalits as well as non-Dalits. But gradually the idea took a different form. I found that lay readers don’t understand numbers and don’t like to read well-researched articles. The best way to reach out to them was storytelling. As I started writing in Gujarati and sharing the idea of the book with my friends, it occurred to me that while...

What's behind Donald Trump's 'narco-state' accusation against Venezuela

By Manolo De Los Santos  The US government has revived its campaign to label Venezuela a "narco-state", accusing its top leadership of drug trafficking and slapping hefty bounties on their heads for capture. This campaign, which only momentarily took a backseat, is a strategic fabrication, not a factual assessment. This accusation, particularly amplified under the Trump Administration, is a calculated smokescreen to justify a long-standing agenda: the overthrow of the Venezuelan government and the seizure of its vast oil and mineral resources. A closer examination of the facts reveals a country that has actively fought drug trafficking on its own terms and a US government with a clear and consistent history of destabilizing independent countries in Latin America.

New RTI draft rules inspired by citizen-unfriendly, overtly bureaucratic approach

By Venkatesh Nayak* The Department of Personnel and Training , Government of India has invited comments on a new set of Draft Rules (available in English only) to implement The Right to Information Act, 2005 . The RTI Rules were last amended in 2012 after a long period of consultation with various stakeholders. The Government’s move to put the draft RTI Rules out for people’s comments and suggestions for change is a welcome continuation of the tradition of public consultation. Positive aspects of the Draft RTI Rules While 60-65% of the Draft RTI Rules repeat the content of the 2012 RTI Rules, some new aspects deserve appreciation as they clarify the manner of implementation of key provisions of the RTI Act. These are: Provisions for dealing with non-compliance of the orders and directives of the Central Information Commission (CIC) by public authorities- this was missing in the 2012 RTI Rules. Non-compliance is increasingly becoming a major problem- two of my non-compliance cases are...

N-power plant at Mithi Virdi: CRZ nod is arbitrary, without jurisdiction

By Krishnakant* A case-appeal has been filed against the order of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) and others granting CRZ clearance for establishment of intake and outfall facility for proposed 6000 MWe Nuclear Power Plant at Mithi Virdi, District Bhavnagar, Gujarat by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) vide order in F 11-23 /2014-IA- III dated March 3, 2015. The case-appeal in the National Green Tribunal at Western Bench at Pune is filed by Shaktisinh Gohil, Sarpanch of Jasapara; Hajabhai Dihora of Mithi Virdi; Jagrutiben Gohil of Jasapara; Krishnakant and Rohit Prajapati activist of the Paryavaran Suraksha Samiti. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has issued a notice to the MoEF&CC, Gujarat Pollution Control Board, Gujarat Coastal Zone Management Authority, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and case is kept for hearing on August 20, 2015. Appeal No. 23 of 2015 (WZ) is filed, a...

1857 War of Independence... when Hindu-Muslim separatism, hatred wasn't an issue

"The Sepoy Revolt at Meerut", Illustrated London News, 1857  By Shamsul Islam* Large sections of Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs unitedly challenged the greatest imperialist power, Britain, during India’s First War of Independence which began on May 10, 1857; the day being Sunday. This extraordinary unity, naturally, unnerved the firangees and made them realize that if their rule was to continue in India, it could happen only when Hindus and Muslims, the largest two religious communities were divided on communal lines.

Ground reality: Israel would a remain Jewish state, attempt to overthrow it will be futile

By NS Venkataraman*  Now that truce has been arrived at between Israel and Hamas for a period of four days and with release of a few hostages from both sides, there is hope that truce would be further extended and the intensity of war would become significantly less. This likely “truce period” gives an opportunity for the sworn supporters and bitter opponents of Hamas as well as Israel and the observers around the world to introspect on the happenings and whether this war could have been avoided. There is prolonged debate for the last several decades as to whom the present region that has been provided to Jews after the World War II belong. View of some people is that Jews have been occupants earlier and therefore, the region should belong to Jews only. However, Christians and those belonging to Islam have also lived in this regions for long period. While Christians make no claim, the dispute is between Jews and those who claim themselves to be Palestinians. In any case...

Fate of Yamuna floodplain still hangs in "balance" despite National Green Tribunal rap on Sri Sri event

By Ashok Shrimali* While the National Green Tribunal (NGT) on Thursday reportedly pulled up the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) for granting permission to hold spiritual guru Sri Sri Ravi Shankar's World Culture Festival on the banks of Yamuna, the chief petitioners against the high-profile event Yamuna Jiye Abhiyan has declared, the “fate of the floodplain still hangs in balance.”