Skip to main content

As fear 'grips' right liberals, Arvind Panagariya, too, would be declared anti-national?

Mahesh Vyas
By Rajiv Shah
It is surely well-known by now that India's top people in the power-that-be have been castigating all those who disagree with them as "anti-nationals". Nothing unusual. If till yesterday only "secular liberals", and "left-liberals" were declared anti-national, facts, however, appear to have begun surfacing that, now, guns are being trained against those who could be qualified as right liberals, too. Let me be specific.
The other day, a former bureaucrat of the Gujarat government, an IAS official, known for his keen perceptions of the state of the economy, whether India's or Gujarat's forwarded to me a video – an interview with Mahesh Vyas, managing director and CEO of India's topmost private sector data company, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
Interviewed by the news portal “The Wire”, long dubbed as "left liberal" by critics, of late Vyas has made a niche for himself by strongly asserting how unemployment rates in the country have been continuously on the rise under Modi. Now, in the video interview he says, joblessness among the educated youth is anywhere between 20 and 25 per cent, highest in decades. 
Enough reason for him to be called "anti-national"? Maybe, but first let me try to summarize what all he said.
Vyas says, the situation is particularly bad in Delhi and Haryana (which “houses” India’s top urban centres Gurgaon and Faridabad), where unemployment has reached “around 30 per cent”, adding things have turned nearly as bad in Tamil Nadu. Vyas concurs with a study published by the Azim Premji University about a year ago – which I, like many others, reported in Counterview – that had made somewhat similar claims.
According to Vyas, India experienced high unemployment rate among the urban educated youth also in 1970s, insisting, the rate is high because of thee major reasons: One, the educated youth refuse to do menial jobs as they are “qualified”; two, they are dependent on parents for housing and monetary needs; and three, enough jobs aren’t available in the market that would lure them into taking up jobs they would like to do.
Vyas’ solution for unemployment is: Tatas, Birlas, Ambanis, Adanis etc. should come up with huge projects across the country to create jobs
Alongside, Vyas says, the poorer sections of the population –  semi-literate and illiterate – are "less unemployed” because they are forced to pick up any job they can do: They would readily push a hand cart or be a street vendor in order to survive. Not without reason, he argues, Bihar has “very low” employment rate.
So far so good. However, the solution he suggests bewildered me. In fact, it was news to me that a top economist and statistician pins all hopes in the big business. He admits, the small and medium sized industries suffered a major setback following the demonetisation move in November 2016, followed by “haphazard” implementation of the goods and services tax (GST).
Vyas notes, while the small and medium industries suffered a collapse, leading to sharp rise in unemployment rates among the urban educated youths, they can't be expected to revive, hence have little or no future. For, they were not, and will not be, internationally competitive. In fact, they don't have the inclination or the capacity do be that. So, what should be done?  Vyas provides a recipe, to which he regrets the industry or the government aren't still ready.
Arvind Panagariya
Vyas’ “solution” is this: Tatas, Birlas, Ambanis, Adanis etc. should come up with huge projects across the country that that would create employment opportunities. Also, the government public sector undertakings (PSUs) should do the needful and move in this direction.
When Mitali Mukherjee, the interviewer, asked him, does he see any such thing happening, Vyas replies in the negative, saying, not at least in the near future. He indicates, big business currently suffers from lack of confidence, and is not ready to invest. First there was imposition of more corporate taxes, then there was tax cut, for instance. 
In fact, Vyas contends, the big business has lost the propensity to invest which it had acquired in two years following Narendra Modi taking over reins of power in 2014, after which there was a sudden downslide. I was left wondering: Does this view of Vyas not put him in the category of a confirmed right-wing, conservative, albeit liberal, economist?
As the interview drew to a close, I found Vyas shaken by the way the powers-that-be, or circles close to Modi, appear to view him or persons like him, only because are critical of the way the economy is being run. Referring to massive data manipulation by the Modi government in order to project India as being on the right track, Vyas says, it was Arvind Subramanian’s paper that shook up the government to accept (unwillingly) that something is wrong on the data front.
Vyas says, quoting Subramanian’s paper, all knew that the economy, especially the industry, wasn't doing well, yet everyone, as if, waited for Subramanian’s paper to declare that the GDP growth was two to two-and-a-half lower than what the Government of India was stating – such was the level of data manipulation.
According to Vyas, following this paper, the government has begun to take things seriously, experts are putting their heads together. Here, I am tempted to quote Vyas. “It’s good that Arvind Subramanian’s paper shook up a little bit”, he says, but does not stop here. He hints how intolerant the government has become nowadays.
Wanting government to stop branding all critics and instead begin listening to what they are saying, this top expert says, “We should not have these polarized positions. Its good if there are engaging positions. We are an argumentative nation. It’s good to be argumentative. It’s good to engage, rather than call critics anti-nationals.”
One is unable to understand why Panagariya quit the government – he has been, and continues to be, outrightly pro-Modi
This was shocking, to say the least. A pro-corporate, neo-liberal economist (other acronyms for him could be liberal, conservative, right-wing) feels even he or his tribe may be called anti-national for his views, which are conceptually the same as those held by the powers-that-be!
Over the last few years, at least three liberal economists quit the government one after another – Raghuram Rajan, who was Reserve Bank of India governor, Arvind Subramanian, who was chief economic adviser to the Government of India, and Arvind Panagariya, who was vice chairman of the Niti Aayog. All of them are known for this centre-right views. Two of them, Rajan and Subramanian, have already been termed anti-national.
I am still unable to understand why Panagariya quit the government – he has been, and continues to be, outrightly pro-Modi. A senior IAS bureaucrat, who has worked in the Government of India, even abroad, for umpteen number of years, told me recently, the reason for Panagariya quitting the government was, again, "intolerance and interference" from circles around Modi.
While Rajan and Subramanian have by now been declared confirmed critics of Modi's governance, qualifying to be"anti-nationals", Panagariya, interestingly, also appears to have begun to gently but firmly begun suggesting that there are issued with Modi governance. In an editorial page article in the Times of India, which he tweeted to reach out to a wider audience, he has criticized Modi (of course, without naming him), for refusing to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Panagariya argues, “setting aside politics”, the view that India would lose out to China if it joined RCEP does not stand, as the “economic logic tells us that bilateral deficits and surpluses should not be a matter of concern.”
He says, “There are nearly 200 countries in the world and each of them strives to buy its imports from countries that charge it the lowest prices and sell its exports to countries that offer it the highest prices. It will be a wonder if these myriad transactions result in mutually balanced trade for each pair of countries.”
As for the “fears that China would flood Indian market with cheap imports”, Panagariya says, these are “exaggerated”, because “entry of cheap imports threatens local producers only if the latter remain inefficient and costly”. He insists, “Local producers that respond to competition by adopting new technologies, organising production activity better and cutting costs in other ways survive.”
In fact, Panagariya says, the officialdom must remember, trade liberalisation “is implemented gradually and in a predictable way, as we did during 1991-2007”, adding, “Accelerated growth during the past two decades owes much to trade liberalisation... We must drop our hesitations and act decisively, as we did during 1991-2007.”
So the period 1991-2007 was better than the Modi years? I am left wondering: Would Panagariya now be declared anti-national?

Comments

sanu said…
Unemployment is increasing

TRENDING

Insider plot to kill Deendayal Upadhyay? What RSS pracharak Balraj Madhok said

By Shamsul Islam*  Balraj Madhok's died on May 2, 2016 ending an era of old guards of Hindutva politics. A senior RSS pracharak till his death was paid handsome tributes by the RSS leaders including PM Modi, himself a senior pracharak, for being a "stalwart leader of Jan Sangh. Balraj Madhok ji's ideological commitment was strong and clarity of thought immense. He was selflessly devoted to the nation and society. I had the good fortune of interacting with Balraj Madhok ji on many occasions". The RSS also issued a formal condolence message signed by the Supremo Mohan Bhagwat on behalf of all swayamsevaks, referring to his contribution of commitment to nation and society. He was a leading RSS pracharak on whom his organization relied for initiating prominent Hindutva projects. But today nobody in the RSS-BJP top hierarchy remembers/talks about Madhok as he was an insider chronicler of the immense degeneration which was spreading as an epidemic in the high echelons of th

Central pollution watchdog sees red in Union ministry labelling waste to energy green

By Chythenyen Devika Kulasekaran*  “Destructors”, “incinerators” and “waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration” all mean the same thing – indiscriminate burning of garbage! Having a history of about one and a half centuries, WTE incinerators have seen several reboots over the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries. 

First-of-its-kind? 'Eco-friendly, low cost' sewage treatment system installed in Gujarat

Counterview Desk Following the installation of the Unconventional Decentralized Multi-Stage Reactor (UDMSR) for sewage treatment, a note on what is claimed to be the  first-of-its-kind technology said, the treated sewage from this system “can be directly utilized for agricultural purposes”, even as proving to be a “saviour in the times of water crisis.”

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Indo-Bangla border: Farmers facing 'illegal obstacles' in harvesting, transporting yields

  Counterview Desk  In a representation to the chairperson, National Human Rights Commission, human rights defender Kirity Roy, who is secretary, Banglar Manabadhikar Suraksha Mancha (MASUM), has said that Border Security Force (BSF) personnel are creating "illegal obstacles" for farmers seeking to harvest their ripened yields and transport them to the market in village Jhaukuthi of Cooch Behar district.

'Flawed' argument: Gandhi had minimal role, naval mutinies alone led to Independence

Counterview Desk Reacting to a Counterview  story , "Rewiring history? Bose, not Gandhi, was real Father of Nation: British PM Attlee 'cited'" (January 26, 2016), an avid reader has forwarded  reaction  in the form of a  link , which carries the article "Did Atlee say Gandhi had minimal role in Independence? #FactCheck", published in the site satyagrahis.in. The satyagraha.in article seeks to debunk the view, reported in the Counterview story, taken by retired army officer GD Bakshi in his book, “Bose: An Indian Samurai”, which claims that Gandhiji had a minimal role to play in India's freedom struggle, and that it was Netaji who played the crucial role. We reproduce the satyagraha.in article here. Text: Nowadays it is said by many MK Gandhi critics that Clement Atlee made a statement in which he said Gandhi has ‘minimal’ role in India's independence and gave credit to naval mutinies and with this statement, they concluded the whole freedom struggle.

Wasteland, a colonial legacy, being used to 'give away' vast tracts to Ratnagiri refinery

By Fouziya Tehzeeb* William D’Souza, a 55-year old farmer from Kuthethur, Mangalore, was busy mixing cattle feed when we arrived at his doorsteps. Around 25 km from the bustling city of Mangalore, Kuthethur is a lush green village with thick vegetation. On the way to William’s house the idyllic view gets blocked by the flares and smoke arising from the Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL).

CAA disregards India's inclusive plural ethos, 'betrays' ideals of freedom struggle: PUCL

Counterview Desk    "Outraged" at the move of the Central government to implement the Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019 (CAA 2019) weeks before the election, the top rights group, People's Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL), has demanded that the law be repealed. 

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

Invincible, Modi 'taller' than BJP, RSS: An opportunity for Congress beyond 2024?

By NS Venkataraman*  With the announcement of poll schedule for the 2024 parliamentary election, there is palpable excitement and expectation amongst the countrymen  about the shape of things to happen in India after the  results of the election would be announced. There is also speculation abroad about the future course of developments in India.