Gujarat relegated to fifth position in investment, says latest Reserve Bank of India study

By Rajiv Shah

The latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) study, “Corporate Investment: Growth in 2012-13 and Prospects for 2013-14”, prepared in the Corporate Studies Division of the Department of Statistics and Information Management, has found that Gujarat has been pushed to the fifth position in investment destination. Analysing on the basis of capital expenditure intentions of the companies in private and joint business sector, the study has found that four states have overtaken Gujarat – Odisha, which is No 1 investment destination, with 27 per cent of all investments, followed by Maharashtra (19.1 per cent), Punjab (10.5 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (5.6 per cent) and Gujarat (5.4 per cent).
In fact, year-wise figures for the last one decade suggest that Gujarat did become No 1 investment destination around mid-2000s. It received highest investment in 26.4 per cent of all investments of the country in 2007-08. This was also the highest ever share for India. But thereafter, Gujarat’s deceleration began – next year, 2008-09, it was 18.4 per cent; then it reached a pitiable 3.2 per cent in 2009-10, again gaining somewhat in the following year, 2010-11, reaching 9.6 per cent, followed by 9 per cent in 2011-12. The last financial year’s of 5.4 per cent has come despite January 2013 Vibrant Gujarat investment summit, which appears to have had little or no impact on the investment climate.
The study captures capital expenditure (investment in fixed assets) intentions of the companies in private and joint business sector in order to assess broadly the short-term changes in business sentiment. The analysis is based on envisaged cost of projects for which funds are raised from banks/FIs or through External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) or domestic equity issues. In all, 969 companies were found to have made investment plans during 2012-13 at an aggregate cost of Rs 2,634 billion as compared with investment plans of Rs 2,509 billion by 1,127 companies in 2011-12.
“Of these, the number of projects assisted by banks/FIs came down to 425 (aggregate cost Rs 1,963 billion) in 2012-13 from 668 projects (aggregate cost Rs 2,120 billion) in 2011-12. However, 32 such projects were cancelled/modified during the current year and the cost of projects still under implementation has been revised to Rs 1,916 billion. The investment plan in 2012-13 was led by high value projects (projects with cost more than Rs 50 billion & above) envisaged in power, metal & metal products and telecom industries”, the study says.
Further, the study says, “the time phasing details of the investment intentions of these companies indicate investments to the tune of Rs 2,919 billion in 2012-13, which is lower by 20.8 per cent than the revised estimate for 2011-12. Further, based on the plans up to 2012-13, the capital expenditure already planned in 2013-14 aggregated to Rs 1,620 billion. Thus, for matching the level of aggregate capital expendtireu (capex) of 2012-13 in 2013-14, a minimum capital expenditure of around Rs 1,299 billion would need to come from new investment intentions of the private corporate sector in 2013-14, which going by the assessment on date, appears to be non-achievable.”

Referring to state-wise pattern of projects in order to reflect industry preference, the study notes, “Spatial distribution of projects tends to vary considerably from year to year reflecting industrial preference. Location of projects for a particular industry depends on many factors such as availability of raw material and skilled labour, adequacy of infrastructure, market size, growth prospects, etc. Furthermore, sanction of high value projects also changes the spatial pattern.”

The study underlines, “It is observed that, most of the investment proposals are undertaken in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, which are considered as industrially advanced. Share of Odisha has increased over the years due to its mineral resources. While Gujarat attracted investment proposals mainly in the industries like infrastructure, petroleum products, metal and metal products and textiles, project investments in Maharashtra has been across almost all industries with larger share coming from infrastructure (mainly power and telecom), transport services, textile and construction.”
It further says, “States like Odisha (topped the list in 2009-10 and 2012-13), Chhattisgarh (occupied top position in 2010-11) and Madhya Pradesh became favoured destination for the industries like power and metal & metal products. Telecom Industry projects are usually well spread across a number of states resulting in higher share of multiple states. Odisha, Maharashtra and Punjab together accounted for 48.4 per cent of the envisaged cost of projects for which institutional assistance was sanctioned in 2012-13.”
The study points towards how “Odisha and Punjab attracted high value projects in power and metal and metal products”, adding, Projects in power and electrical equipments and electronics industries are to be based in Maharashtra.” Even then, it suggests, “The share of Maharashtra in total envisaged cost of projects decreased in 2012-13 as compared to the previous year, along with Karnataka, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.”