Skip to main content

India's energy consumption "unlikely to take off" by 2030: Reliance thinktank analysis

By Our Representative
A high-profile analysis, released by Reliance thinktank Observation Research Foundation (ORF), says that even if Indian economy achieves 8% growth rate, it is unlikely to achieve per person energy consumption levels that represent "decent quality of life" for several years now. It adds, the talk of "India’s energy take-off" may prove to be an ’optical illusion’, which has been caused by "China’s slow-down."
The analysis, "India's Energy Sector: About to Take-off?" by Lydia Powell and Akhilesh Satiby, pointing out that this is "not necessarily good news", adds, projections suggest that by 2030, 20 per cent of the Indian population will have "no access to electricity and 46 per cent will "remain dependent on traditional fuels for cooking."
Basing the analysis on research carried out by the International Energy Agency, Powell and Satiby contend, "Perversely, this will limit the perceived threat posed by the scale of India’s energy transitions on global boundary conditions such as the global carbon budget."
The analysis comes close on the heels of the view being floated, on the basis of data released by British Petroleum (BP), that already in in 2014 “India’s CO2 emissions from energy use had increased by 8.1%", making the country the "world’s fastest-growing major polluter”.
Sourcing on data made available by the Central Electricity Authority (2015), the ORF analysis predicts this scenario despite the fact that "sector-wise changes in consumption of electricity in the last six decades suggests "residential and commercial sectors have doubled their share of electricity consumption (from 10 to 24 percent and from 4 to 9 percent respectively)."
But, it adds, significantly, "The share of industrial consumption has declined from 70 percent to about 42 percent in 2014-15 after peaking at 74 percent in 1960. The share of electricity in traction has declined from about 7 percent in 1947 to about 2 percent in 2014-15, while the share of agriculture in electricity consumption has grown from about 3 percent to about 18 percent after peaking at 26 percent in 1997."
Even the 18th power survey, "projects a demand of 3710 billion units corresponding to a peak load of 514 GW at bus bar in 2032", is unlikely to change the scenario where per capita energy consumption would go up, say Powell and Satiby.
The authors say, "The survey assumes the following: 8-9 percent growth up to the end of the 12th plan and around 7-9 percent beyond that period; full electrification by 2017; high growth rate for electricity consumption in states with low per person electricity consumption."
Coming to energy consumption of petroleum products, particularly petrol, LPG, Kerosene and diesel, the authors say, "there is no appreciable sign of a growth spurt, except in kerosene, whose consumption is showing a consistent negative growth since 2002", adding, "This may be attributed to increase in electrification rates because kerosene is a major source of lighting in un-electrified rural India."
"The absence of a corresponding increase in LPG consumption growth rates is surprising because kerosene is also a major source of cooking fuel in rural areas. The absence of a significant growth of LPG consumption may be attributed to the limits imposed on subsidised LPG consumption", the authors say.
About transportation fuels, "the trend in sales of vehicles shows a significant growth for personal vehicles as opposed to commercial vehicles", the authors believe, adding, "Between 2009 and 2015 personal vehicle sales grew at 4.9 percent compared to a growth of 2.4 percent for commercial vehicles", while "two wheeler sales grew at 9.3 percent."
Basing on this, long-term projections would suggest that there would not be any significant "departure from this trend, where personal vehicle sales is dominated by sales of two wheelers.With commercial vehicles unlikely to increase, there is little chance of "growth spurt in energy consumption", the authors conclude.

Comments

TRENDING

What's Bill Gates up to? Have 'irregularities' found in funding HPV vaccine trials faded?

By Colin Gonsalves*  After having read the 72nd report of the Department Related Parliamentary Standing Committee on alleged irregularities in the conduct of studies using HPV vaccines by PATH in India, it was startling to see Bill Gates bobbing his head up and down and smiling ingratiatingly on prime time television while the Prime Minister lectured him in Hindi on his plans for the country. 

Muted profit margins, moderate increase in costs and sales: IIM-A survey of 1000 cos

By Our Representative  The Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad’s (IIM-A's) latest Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) has said that the cost perceptions data obtained from India’s business executives suggests that there is “mild increase in cost pressures”.

Displaced from Bangladesh, Buddhist, Hindu groups without citizenship in Arunachal

By Sharma Lohit  Buddhist Chakma and Hindu Hajongs were settled in the 1960s in parts of Changlang and Papum Pare district of Arunachal Pradesh after they had fled Chittagong Hill Tracts of present Bangladesh following an ethnic clash and a dam disaster. Their original population was around 5,000, but at present, it is said to be close to one lakh.

Govt putting India's professionals, skilled, unskilled labour 'at mercy of' big business

By Thomas Franco, Dinesh Abrol*  As it is impossible to refute the report of the International Labour Organisation, Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran recently said that the government cannot solve all social, economic problems like unemployment and social security. He blamed the youth for not acquiring enough skills to get employment. Then can’t the people ask, ‘Why do we have a government? Is it not the government’s responsibility to provide adequate employment to its citizens?’

Magnetic, stunning, Protima Bedi 'exposed' malice of sexual repression in society

By Harsh Thakor*  Protima Bedi was born to a baniya businessman and a Bengali mother as Protima Gupta in Delhi in 1949. Her father was a small-time trader, who was thrown out of his family for marrying a dark Bengali women. The theme of her early life was to rebel against traditional bondage. It was extraordinary how Protima underwent a metamorphosis from a conventional convent-educated girl into a freak. On October 12th was her 75th birthday; earlier this year, on August 18th it was her 25th death anniversary.

Anti-Rupala Rajputs 'have no support' of numerically strong Kshatriya communities

By Rajiv Shah  Personally, I have no love lost for Purshottam Rupala, though I have known him ever since I was posted as the Times of India representative in Gandhinagar in 1997, from where I was supposed to do political reporting. In news after he made the statement that 'maharajas' succumbed to foreign rulers, including the British, and even married off their daughters them, there have been large Rajput rallies against him for “insulting” the community.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

IMA vs Ramdev: Why what's good or bad for goose should be good or bad for gander

By Dr Amitav Banerjee, MD* Baba Ramdev and his associate Balkrishna faced the wrath of the Supreme Court for their propaganda about their Ayurvedic products and belittling mainstream medicine. Baba Ramdev had to apologize in court. His apology was not accepted and he may face the contempt of court with harsher punishment. The Supreme Court acted on a public interest litigation (PIL) moved by the Indian Medical Association (IMA).

Youth as game changers in Lok Sabha polls? Young voter registration 'is so very low'

By Dr Mansee Bal Bhargava*  Young voters will be the game changers in 2024. Do they realise this? Does it matter to them? If it does, what they should/must vote for? India’s population of nearly 1.3 billion has about one-fifth 19.1% as youth. With 66% of its population (808 million) below the age of 35, India has the world's largest youth population. Among them, less than 40% of those who turned 18 or 19 have registered themselves for 2024 election. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), just above 1.8 crore new voters (18-and 19-year-olds) are on the electoral rolls/registration out of the total projected 4.9 crore new voters in this age group.

'Flawed' argument: Gandhi had minimal role, naval mutinies alone led to Independence

Counterview Desk Reacting to a Counterview  story , "Rewiring history? Bose, not Gandhi, was real Father of Nation: British PM Attlee 'cited'" (January 26, 2016), an avid reader has forwarded  reaction  in the form of a  link , which carries the article "Did Atlee say Gandhi had minimal role in Independence? #FactCheck", published in the site satyagrahis.in. The satyagraha.in article seeks to debunk the view, reported in the Counterview story, taken by retired army officer GD Bakshi in his book, “Bose: An Indian Samurai”, which claims that Gandhiji had a minimal role to play in India's freedom struggle, and that it was Netaji who played the crucial role. We reproduce the satyagraha.in article here. Text: Nowadays it is said by many MK Gandhi critics that Clement Atlee made a statement in which he said Gandhi has ‘minimal’ role in India's independence and gave credit to naval mutinies and with this statement, they concluded the whole freedom struggle.