By Rajiv Shah
Returning from the United States on October 30—less than a week before the outcome of one of the world’s most closely watched elections—it seemed clear to me that the Indian diaspora had little love left for President Donald Trump. What I observed on the ground felt like a total reversal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 pitch to NRIs in Houston: "Abki baar, Trump sarkar."
My travels took me across a range of large and small cities, from California on the West Coast to North Carolina in the East. In Los Angeles, as I walked toward a neighborhood street market, two young women passed by. My local companion turned and asked, "Do you know who was on your right?" Sensing my blank look, he added: "That was Nithya Raman, the mayoral candidate..."
As the campaign reached its fever pitch, television advertisements regularly urged viewers to back Raman, a 45-year-old Democratic Socialist of Tamil descent. Accompanied by her campaign portal (act.nithyaforthecity.com), her ground game was palpable, and local supporters I met insisted she was poised to win. In pro-Modi online circles, critics had targeted her for holding critical or "anti-Modi" views, even as supporters highlighted her identity as a practicing Hindu and pointed out that her platform was rooted strictly in municipal Los Angeles issues—housing, infrastructure, and immigrant rights—rather than subcontinental foreign policy. Raman went on to defeat both a prominent Republican challenger and an incumbent Democrat to claim City Hall.
Following the race, prominent Republicans seized on Raman’s win—alongside victories by Democratic Socialists like Zohran Mamdani in New York City and Janeese Lewis George in Washington, D.C.—framing it as part of an alarming lurch toward the far left. Reacting to the outcomes, Trump cautioned that under democratic socialist mayors, "if you go by history, it’s going to be a disaster."
Yet the broader recoil from Trump was unmistakable. Over lunch with an Indian-American software engineer living outside Raleigh, North Carolina, I found that while affection for Modi remained intact, enthusiasm for Trump had completely evaporated. Pointing to Trump’s shifting statements on green card caps and legal immigration, the engineer remarked: "Trump is entirely unpredictable. Before going to bed he makes one pledge, only to reverse it the next morning."
Back in India, as I shook off my jet lag, I came across an analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter) by Milan Vaishnav, Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The study titled "Indian American Voting in the 2026 United States Midterm Elections," confirmed empirically what I had witnessed anecdotally: Indian-American voters have staged a sharp rebound toward Democratic candidates, propelled by domestic policy priorities and deep skepticism of the Republican ticket.
Historically, Indian Americans have served as a reliable base for Democrats, though recent cycles had shown signs of erosion. In 2020, 68% of Indian-American citizens favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump (22%). By 2024, that margin had compressed, with Kamala Harris capturing 62% against Trump’s 30%.
However, Carnegie’s October 2026 Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) revealed a stark course correction: 62% of Indian-American registered voters indicated an intention to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, compared to just 19% who backed the Republican.
This shift marks a decisive repudiation of Modi's 2019 overture during the "Howdy, Modi!" summit at Houston’s NRG Stadium, where he chanted "Abki baar, Trump sarkar" before a crowd of 50,000. Far from tying the diaspora to the Republican mast, that endorsement appears to have alienated moderate voters over time. Analysts point out that diaspora priorities are overwhelmingly domestic: comprehensive immigration pathways, H-1B stability, affordable healthcare, and the safeguarding of democratic norms take precedence over political endorsements emanating from New Delhi. For many younger and centrist voters, alignment with Trump’s polarizing brand clashed with core values of pluralism, inclusion, and institutional stability.
While Indian Americans make up roughly 1.5% of the U.S. population (an estimated 5.8 to 5.9 million people, with around 4.2 million eligible voters), their political weight punches far above their national share due to strategic geographic clustering in suburban battlegrounds. In 2026, Democrats captured 84 of the 100 congressional districts with the largest Indian-American concentrations. High turnout rates cemented the demographic as a decisive swing factor in razor-thin races.
This shifting sentiment was mirrored directly in the slate of candidates elected. Indian-American Democrats secured breakthrough victories nationwide, including Pia Dandiya winning Florida’s 22nd Congressional District and Nabeela Syed flipping a Republican-held seat to win Illinois State Senate District 26. Incumbent lawmakers Suhas Subramanyam and Ami Bera comfortably defended their seats.
Conversely, high-profile Indian-American Republicans suffered significant setbacks. Most prominently, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy lost the Ohio gubernatorial race to Democrat Amy Acton—a stinging defeat despite heavy party backing. In local and state races, candidates like Mahesh Ganorkar also fell short, demonstrating that diaspora voters will not automatically support candidates simply because they share ethnic heritage.
Beyond topline numbers, the Carnegie report identified that the Democratic surge was driven predominantly by men:
Older Men (40+): Previously warming to Republican messaging, older Indian-American men swung sharply back. Republican support in this cohort collapsed from 32% in January 2026 to 16% by October, while Democratic backing jumped from 53% to 68%.
Younger Men (18–39): After Republican support among young men peaked at 40% in 2024, it dropped to 23% in 2026, with 64% backing Democratic congressional nominees.
The study also highlighted a telling asymmetry in voter motivation. Among Democratic-leaning Indian Americans, 65% said their vote was driven primarily by affirmative support for Democratic policies, while 35% cited opposition to the GOP ("negative partisanship"). In contrast, Republican voters in the community were driven almost entirely by party loyalty: 83% reported voting out of direct support for the GOP, with only 17% motivated by anti-Democratic sentiment.
Perhaps the most revealing finding is that this electoral swing occurred without any major shift in formal party registration. Ahead of the vote, 46% of Indian Americans identified as Democrats, 19% as Republicans, and 26% as independents—numbers practically unchanged since the start of the year. The fact that Democratic candidate preference (62%) vastly outstripped formal party affiliation (46%) illustrates that Democrats successfully pulled in independents and unaligned moderates.
With Democratic candidates holding an equivalent 63% to 21% advantage in Senate contests, the diaspora has reaffirmed its role as an indispensable pillar of the Democratic coalition. The brief Republican inroads observed during the early 2020s have receded, leaving strategists on both sides to ponder whether this rebound represents a durable realignment or a pointed reaction to the current political landscape.
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