Recent times have witnessed a deeply distressing human tragedy. On one hand, the number of people affected by humanitarian crisis situations is being recorded at unprecedentedly high levels. On the other hand, the availability of funds to help them is falling far short of their needs, declining at a fast pace. This combination has led humanitarian aid organizations to warn that millions of lives are threatened.
However, despite these warnings, estimates of those who have already died due to this fatal combination of high need and severe underfunding are rarely provided. Drawing on historical data regarding mortality in emergencies, this article argues that millions of people are actually dying—and have died over the last two years—as a direct result of the failure to provide timely, life-saving assistance.
The Historical Baseline of Mortality in Emergencies
To understand the current tragedy, we must look at past estimates of mortality in humanitarian emergencies. Various studies, summarized in research by Charles B. Keely, Holly E. Reed, and Ronald J. Waldman (NIH/NLM), highlight the severe mortality levels associated with these crises.
In normal times in developing countries, the crude mortality rate (CMR) is around 0.25 per day per 10,000 people. When this rate increases fourfold to 1 per day per 10,000 persons (or 36.5 deaths per year per 1,000 population), it crosses the threshold for a humanitarian emergency.
Historically, death rates have surged far beyond this threshold during high-risk phases of emergencies. For example:
- Rwanda (1994): CMR estimates ranged between 19 to 31 per day per 10,000. At this high-end estimate, the entire refugee group would have died within a year if the rate continued.
- Baidoa, Somalia (1993): Estimated CMR of 17.
- Sudan (1992-93) and Angola (1995): Estimated CMR of 7.
Children are frequently the most vulnerable. During the Iraqi displacement near the Turkey border (1991), child deaths under five comprised 63% of all deaths.
Fortunately, history also shows that mortality can be drastically reduced with proper intervention. For Mozambican refugees in Zimbabwe, the CMR dropped from 8 to about 2 within two months as people settled and received aid. The vital lesson for our present times is clear: recovery and the reduction of mortality depend entirely on the extent, timing, and quality of humanitarian assistance available. When aid is denied or inadequate, periods of extreme mortality are tragically prolonged.
The Present Reality: Unprecedented Funding Shortfalls (2025–2026)
Today, humanitarian assistance is declining precisely when it is needed most.
In 2025, the UN’s Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) identified 305 million people in need of assistance. Due to resource constraints, only 190 million were targeted, requiring $46 billion. However, due to drastic funding cuts—particularly from the USA and Germany—only about 35% ($16 billion) was made available.
Learning from this shortfall, the 2026 GHO reduced its targets to reflect realistic projections rather than improved conditions. The 2026 GHO identified 250 million people affected by crises, targeting 143 million, with a high-priority sub-category of 88 million. The funding requirement was set at $30 to $31 billion.
Yet, as of early November 2026, only about $12.4 billion (40%) has been received. The consequences of this math are devastating:
- 88 million people in the highest priority category received the bulk of the funds (though still below satisfactory norms).
- 55 million targeted people were largely ignored due to a lack of funds (only $0.4 billion remained for them mid-year).
- 107 million people were not targeted at all due to resource constraints.
Overall, nearly 150 million people caught in humanitarian crises were more or less left out of the main GHO system in 2025 and 2026. This is compounded by shortfalls in refugee funding (UNHCR needed $8.5 billion for 2026 but received only $2.7 billion by July) and operational hurdles. Aid workers are increasingly attacked or killed, and the system's shift away from decentralized, local functioning has reduced the prospects of effective implementation in neglected areas like DRC Congo, the Sahel, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Lebanon.
Calculating the Silent Tragedy: Millions Already Dying
The GHO for 2026 noted that the last lifeline for millions is being snapped—health centers are closing, food rations are cut, and shelters remain unrepaired. For highly vulnerable, malnourished, and traumatized populations, any of these adversities is life-threatening.
Based on historical mortality thresholds and the current funding reality, we can estimate the human cost.
- Scenario A (Adequate Aid): If a robust humanitarian system exists, mortality among vulnerable crisis populations can be kept to 1% to 1.5% annually.
- Scenario B (Inadequate Aid): If the system is severely underfunded, mortality increases to around 3%.
- Scenario C (No Aid): If humanitarian assistance is nonexistent, mortality can surge to 6% to 7% or more.
Applying these assumptions to the roughly 300 million highly vulnerable people caught in crises over the 22 months from January 2025 to October 2026:
1. About 150 million people received little to no assistance worth the name.
2. The remaining bulk received much less than adequate assistance.
Consequently, the excess mortality attributed to the non-availability or inadequacy of global humanitarian assistance is estimated to be close to 17 to 18 million deaths globally during this 22-month period (averaging nearly 9 million excess deaths per year).
If a satisfactory humanitarian system had been funded and available to all, deaths among this 300 million population could have been kept to around 3 million a year. Instead, actual mortality has likely hovered around 12 million a year. In short, 17 million lives could have been saved during these 22 months, alongside the prevention of countless cases of serious disease, disability, hunger, and trauma.
The Price of Survival and the Path Forward for 2027
The additional funding required to avert this tragedy is staggering only in its contrast to global priorities. An additional $80 billion for humanitarian assistance over these 22 months would have saved 17 million lives. Yet, this amount is less than 2% of the world’s military expenditure and less than 3% of what the world spent on alcohol during the same period.
Looking ahead to 2027, with conflicts and disasters worsening, we must ensure that periods of very high historical mortality are not prolonged in neglected and emerging crisis zones. I urge a great global effort to undertake three vital actions:
1. Drastically Increase Funding: Raise at least $70 billion for humanitarian assistance in 2027, and $140 billion for the two-year period of 2027–2028.
2. Reform the Assistance System: Ensure adequate responses in vast neglected and newly emerging crisis areas. This requires closer involvement of local people and communities, ensuring the best possible utilization of resources through transparency and democracy.
3. Commit to Peace: Efforts for peace must involve us all in a much bigger way. Without reducing conflicts, providing more humanitarian aid is like pouring water into a leaking bucket. A deep and firm commitment to peace, nonviolence, and the reduction of all conflict is ultimately the most vital life-saving measure of all.
---
The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, Man over Machine, Earth without Borders, and A Day in 2071. His website is bharatdogra.in and his YouTube channel is Bharat Dogra | Save Earth Campaign
Comments