The final results of Israel’s recent general election have produced a deeply divided parliament, placing Arab-led political parties in a potentially decisive position in determining the country’s next government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing alliance have secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot has won 48 seats. Arab-led parties have secured 19 seats. Since a majority of 61 seats is required to form a government, neither of the two main political blocs has the numbers needed to govern independently.
The 19 seats won by Arab-led parties are nearly double their representation in previous elections. Arab voters appear to have consolidated their support in opposition to Netanyahu’s government and its policies, disrupting the traditional political balance dominated by right-wing parties. The results indicate a significant shift in Israel’s political landscape, particularly at a time when public dissatisfaction over the prolonged regional conflicts, security failures and growing international isolation has intensified.
This is the first election since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent regional conflicts involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. The prolonged wars, mounting security concerns and questions over the government's handling of the October 7 attacks have influenced public opinion. Netanyahu has also faced corruption allegations for several years. If he loses power or fails to secure a parliamentary majority, scrutiny of the cases against him and investigations into the security failures surrounding October 7 could intensify.
With Netanyahu's bloc holding 53 seats and the opposition 48, the 19 Arab-led lawmakers have emerged as potential kingmakers. Their support could determine which political alliance forms the next government. However, ideological opposition among sections of the Jewish right and even some members of the opposition to a formal alliance with Arab parties has made government formation particularly complicated.
The coming weeks could therefore witness intense negotiations, political bargaining and possibly a prolonged deadlock. Alternative possibilities include the formation of a minority government or attempts to persuade individual lawmakers to switch political sides. The official election results are scheduled to be submitted to the president on November 4, 2026.
If no formal coalition can be formed, Netanyahu may attempt to establish a fragile minority government by securing outside support or relying on some lawmakers to abstain during confidence votes. If the political parties fail to reach an agreement within the legally prescribed period, Israel may have to hold another election. This would require all political groups to search for additional partners, although their differences over fundamental political and ideological questions could make a workable arrangement difficult.
In principle, the most practical option for the opposition to remove Netanyahu from power is to form an alliance with parties representing Israel's Arab citizens. However, two right-wing opposition leaders, former prime minister Naftali Bennett and former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman, have strongly opposed this possibility.
Another option would be for parties from the two existing political blocs to set aside their differences and form a national unity government. Under such an arrangement, Netanyahu's Likud party could attempt to secure sufficient parliamentary support by joining its existing allies with at least one opposition party.
The biggest obstacle to this proposal is Gadi Eisenkot's declared opposition to joining a government led by Netanyahu. Any change in his position could also alienate voters who supported the opposition primarily to bring an end to Netanyahu's rule. Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman and Yair Golan, leaders of four opposition parties, have all indicated that they will not cooperate with Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's bloc remains eight seats short of a parliamentary majority. Persuading eight opposition lawmakers to switch sides would be a formidable political challenge.
Reports also suggest that the United Torah Judaism (UTJ), a seven-seat party currently part of Netanyahu's ruling alliance, has proposed supporting Eisenkot's opposition alliance and abstaining from a confidence vote. Such a move could further complicate the political calculations surrounding government formation.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold consultations with the leaders of parties that have won seats in the Knesset. Following these discussions, he will select a member of parliament and ask that person to form the next government. Since Arab parties are likely to support Eisenkot, the leader of his Yeshar party could be among the first candidates considered for the responsibility.
Under the rules, the person appointed to form the government will have 28 days to secure sufficient support, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If the first candidate fails, the president can assign the task to another member of parliament, who will also have 28 days to assemble a parliamentary majority. If all attempts fail, Israel may have to return to the polls.
The election results point to an important change in Israeli politics. The right-wing nationalist political arrangement that has dominated the country for a long time has encountered a serious challenge. The increased representation of Arab-led parties is not merely an electoral achievement; it also reflects demands for greater political representation, equal citizenship and a reassessment of government policies.
Israel's political future could now develop along three broad possibilities.
The first is the formation of a common opposition front with the support of Arab-led parties to remove Netanyahu from power. If this succeeds, Arab political parties could, for the first time, play a decisive role in determining the composition of the government. Such an arrangement could open a new chapter in political participation between Jewish and Arab citizens, although the extent of their involvement in the government would depend on the nature of the agreement.
The second possibility is a fragile coalition or a national unity government. If Netanyahu's opponents and some right-wing parties agree on a common political programme, they may be able to form a government. However, serious disagreements would remain over foreign policy, the Palestinian question, the war in Gaza, national security and judicial reforms. These differences could undermine the stability of such a government.
The third possibility is that neither political bloc succeeds in securing a majority, forcing Israel to hold another election. This could deepen political uncertainty and affect governance at a time when the country faces significant challenges. Repeated elections would not only weaken political stability but could also delay important decisions concerning the economy, security, the ongoing conflicts and international relations.
Netanyahu's personal political future is another important dimension of the election. His corruption cases, questions of accountability for the security failures of October 7, 2023, and growing criticism of the prolonged wars have become major challenges to his political survival. If he loses power, demands for greater accountability and closer scrutiny of the allegations against him could intensify. If he manages to return to office, however, he may have to govern with a narrower political base and greater dependence on coalition partners.
The consequences of Israel's political transition, or continued deadlock, will extend beyond its domestic politics. The future of the war in Gaza, relations with the Palestinians, policies towards Lebanon and Iran, and ties with the United States and European countries will all be influenced by the political direction of the next government.
If a new government adopts a more balanced approach towards ending the wars, pursuing diplomatic solutions and recognising Palestinian political rights, there may be an opportunity to reduce Israel's growing international isolation. On the other hand, if right-wing nationalist politics continues to dominate government policy, regional tensions and international criticism are likely to persist.
The election, therefore, represents more than an ordinary contest for political power or a routine exercise in government formation. It marks a critical moment for Israel's democratic direction, its understanding of national security, its approach to war and the political participation of Arab citizens.
The challenge to Netanyahu's leadership suggests that public concerns over prolonged wars, security failures and political accountability cannot be ignored indefinitely. The growing electoral strength of Arab parties, combined with the changing mood of a population exhausted by conflict, could reshape both Israel's political power structure and the wider political landscape of West Asia.
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*With Bargi Dam Displaced and Affected Association
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