A day after the Union Cabinet approved India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the 2031-2035 period, a prominent climate policy analyst has raised serious concerns, arguing that the commitments are insufficient to protect the country’s vulnerable populations and its environment.
In a formal representation sent to the Union Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change (EF&CC) and the Vice-Chairperson of NITI Aayog, Shankar Sharma, a Power & Climate Policy Analyst based in Sagara, Karnataka, has called for a critical revisit of the targets. Copies of the communication were also marked to the Prime Minister’s Office, the Union Cabinet Secretary, and all Union Cabinet Ministers.
The Cabinet’s decision, announced on March 26, sets key targets for India, including reducing the Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 47 percent from 2005 levels by 2035, achieving 60 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources, and creating an additional carbon sink of 3.5 to 4.0 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through forest and tree cover.
However, in his detailed critique, Sharma contends that these targets may be misleading and ultimately inadequate. He argues that while emission intensity may drop, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise significantly due to India’s ambitious economic growth plans.
“Even if the emission intensity of the country's GDP comes down, the total annual GHG emissions will be most likely more than what it is now, because the GDP itself is projected to increase considerably, and the same is also being pursued actively,” Sharma states in his representation. “At the global level what is critical is the total GHG emissions in the atmosphere, which is determined by the average country level annual emissions.”
Sharma’s analysis further points to a disconnect between the non-fossil fuel capacity target and the government's own plans for fossil-fuel-based power. Citing the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) recent National Generation Adequacy Plan, he notes that India’s total installed power capacity is projected to more than double to 1,121 GW by 2035-36. This expansion will include significant increases in coal, gas, nuclear, and large hydro capacity, which he argues will lead to a massive rise in absolute GHG emissions and cause disruptive impacts on natural resources.
“Assuming that India can achieve 60 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2035, the absolute magnitude of the cumulative electric power installed capacity from fossil fuel-based energy resources… will most likely be much higher than what it is at present,” Sharma writes.
The analyst also cast doubt on the feasibility of the carbon sink target, highlighting a decline in the health of India’s forests. He pointed to scientific studies indicating reduced photosynthetic efficiency and climate-induced stress in key ecological zones like the Western Ghats and Eastern Himalayas.
“The ground realities should indicate the hollowness in such plans,” Sharma states, emphasizing that the reported increase in green cover does not reflect the declining functional health of forests as effective carbon sinks.
In his concluding remarks, Sharma urged the government to move beyond what he termed a "too small and too late" target of Net-Zero by 2070. He called for urgent course corrections, including a shift towards a truly low-carbon economy, and stressed the need for continuous monitoring and effective engagement with civil society.
“May I urge the Union govt. through your good offices to initiate the necessary measures to apply all course corrections necessary to arrest the run-away trends of the phenomenon of Climate Change urgently, so as to protect the legitimate interest of our masses?” Sharma said in his letter. “In all such efforts, effective interactions with the interested civil society groups will be a critical enabling factor.”
Comments