Can BNP's Tarique Rahman deliver a friendlier Dhaka for India?

By Nava Thakuria*

Bangladesh has constituted a new government under the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) following a largely peaceful national election on February 12, 2026. People across eastern India — a region that shares borders with Bangladesh on nearly all sides, except a narrow stretch adjoining Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal — hope the new administration in Dhaka will bring political stability and economic progress to Bangladesh's 170 million citizens. For India's northeastern states, particularly Assam, two persistent concerns have long shaped perceptions of the bilateral relationship: irregular cross-border migration and regional security.

Questions of land connectivity have also surfaced periodically, with some Bangladeshi commentators highlighting the strategic vulnerabilities of the Siliguri Corridor — commonly referred to as the "Chicken's Neck." A fringe element has gone further, advocating for the incorporation of parts of eastern India into what they term a "greater Banglasthan," with some arguments extending to claims on parts of Bhutan and Tibet. Separately, voices within Bangladesh have pushed for a stronger assertion of Islamic identity alongside the country's established Bengali linguistic heritage. These positions, while not representative of mainstream Bangladeshi politics, remain a source of unease across the border.

The February election recorded a voter turnout of approximately 60 percent, with the BNP winning 212 of 300 parliamentary seats in the Jatiya Sansad — to which an additional 50 reserved seats for women will be added. Tarique Rahman, 60, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, led the BNP without deploying the anti-India rhetoric that has, at times, proven an effective tool for rallying electoral sentiment in Bangladesh. Even after being sworn in as Prime Minister, Rahman adopted a measured tone, signaling interest in balanced relations with neighboring countries, including India.

Anti-India sentiment had gained momentum in the preceding period, partly fueled by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's decision to seek refuge in New Delhi following her ouster on August 5, 2024. Thousands of Awami League leaders are also believed to have sought political asylum in India. The interim government of Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus repeatedly sought Hasina's extradition — she faces a death sentence issued by a Bangladeshi tribunal — but received no substantive response from New Delhi. Rahman, notably, refrained from escalating the issue publicly, stating that her repatriation should be pursued through legal channels.

The election results also produced an important, if modest, signal on minority representation. Despite well-documented concerns about atrocities against religious minorities in Bangladesh in recent years, four non-Muslim candidates won seats in the 13th Jatiya Sansad. Two Hindu candidates — Goyeshwar Chandra Roy and Nitai Roy Chowdhury — were nominated by the BNP and defeated Jamaat-backed opponents. Two others from minority communities, Saching Pru and Dipen Dewan, also won on BNP tickets. Prime Minister Rahman subsequently inducted Roy Chowdhury and Dewan into his cabinet. Hindus now constitute roughly eight percent of Bangladesh's population — approximately 13 million people — compared to over 22 percent at the time of Partition.

India's response to the BNP's victory was swift and warm. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first global leaders to call Tarique Rahman, congratulating him and expressing interest in advancing a mutually beneficial relationship. The BNP leadership responded positively, stating that Dhaka looks forward to engaging constructively with New Delhi on the basis of mutual respect, sensitivity to each other's concerns, and a shared commitment to peace, stability, and regional prosperity. Modi later extended a personal invitation for Rahman and his family to visit India at a mutually convenient time. Though unable to attend Rahman's swearing-in ceremony on February 17, Modi deputed Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to represent India at the event, held at the southern courtyard of the Jatiya Sansad Bhawan in Dhaka.

In his final televised address as chief adviser of the interim government, Dr. Yunus described the election as "not merely a power transfer, but the beginning of a new journey for Bangladesh's democracy." He acknowledged that his administration had begun its work in deeply adverse conditions, with state institutions and the economy severely weakened under the previous government. Yunus also reiterated his vision of expanded regional cooperation — with Nepal, Bhutan, and India's northeastern states — as a significant opportunity for Bangladesh's development, urging political leaders and citizens alike to sustain the momentum for reform.

Yet significant concerns remain. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami — an Islamist party that opposed Bangladesh's 1971 liberation war by siding with West Pakistan — has, for the first time, emerged as the principal opposition party in the Jatiya Sansad. Leading an 11-party alliance, it secured 77 seats in total, with the Jamaat itself winning 68 constituencies, notably concentrated in districts bordering West Bengal. The newly formed National Citizen Party, which grew out of the student-led uprising that toppled the Hasina government in July-August 2024, contested the election in alliance with the Jamaat and won six seats.

For India — and for the landlocked northeastern region in particular — the rise of the Jamaat as a mainstream political force presents a challenge that will require careful, recalibrated diplomacy. Whether the warmth of the early Modi-Rahman exchange can be sustained in the face of these structural pressures remains the central question for bilateral relations in the months ahead.

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*Senior journalist based in Guwahati

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