Are people in Russia becoming frustrated with the prolonged war in Ukraine? And is the war having a similar impact on the people of Ukraine? I have no firsthand information about this, but it is well known how nationalist hysteria often seeks to conceal such frustration, particularly among the youth.
I wondered whether, much like the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement in the U.S., Russia also has nationalist and conservative movements advocating for the restoration of its past greatness—especially referencing the Soviet Union’s power and influence.
However, is the hysteria surrounding the war now fading, particularly among young people? It would seem so, based on a recent conversation I had with a friend who was visiting Bali as a tourist with his wife. While in Bali, the middle-aged couple participated in a yoga camp alongside other tourist activities. What they told me was interesting: at the camp, they met a group of young Russians and had a meaningful conversation with them.
"They told us they had come to Bali for the yoga camp because living there was relatively cheap, especially at a time when they were being pressured to sign contracts to serve in the Russian army against Ukraine. They appeared to be avoiding enlistment following the completion of their one-year compulsory military training," my friend recounted.
A media search confirms that slogans like "Russia Rising" and "Russia is Rising from Its Knees" are commonly used by Putin supporters to assert that Russia is reclaiming its global power. The Russian government portrays Western liberalism as a threat to Russian identity, promoting conservative values, Orthodox Christianity, and state-controlled patriotism.
At the same time, media reports indicate that frustration with the war is growing among Russians due to its economic impact, heavy casualties, prolonged conflict, forced mobilization, and a crackdown on dissent—including strict suppression of anti-war protests. According to a Euronews report, the Russian NGO Get Lost supports individuals trying to evade conscription, which often leads to them being coerced into signing military contracts. The report quotes an NGO representative saying: "An enlisted soldier finds himself in a very difficult situation. In fact, he has no option but to be on a contract."
The report also states that even without a contract, conscripts can be sent to illegally annexed Crimea or Russian regions such as Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk—areas that are no safer than the occupied Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, where fierce fighting continues.
Reports in Indian media further highlight cases where Indian nationals were misled into joining the Russian army to fight against Ukraine. Some were lured with promises of employment or education, only to be coerced into military service. Estimates from the Indian government suggest that around 100 citizens fell victim to such human trafficking schemes, and tragically, at least four Indians have died in the conflict. Similar networks have also exploited individuals from South Asia, including Nepal and Sri Lanka, by enticing them to Russia under false pretenses before forcing them into military roles.
However, what is less well known is that frustration with the war seems to be growing even in Ukraine. While Ukrainian frustrations are different—since they are defending their land against foreign invasion—reports suggest that war fatigue is emerging amid political control and propaganda. Civilian casualties, economic hardships, and uncertainty regarding Western support have forced millions to flee, exacerbating discontent.
A recent Al Jazeera report sheds light on these challenges. It claims that Ukraine has faced increasing pressure from Western allies to mobilize young men under the age of 25, as the mobilization law passed in April did not deliver the expected number of recruits.
Moreover, Zelenskyy reportedly fears growing public anger and palpable reluctance among Ukrainians to fight. According to the report: "Many Ukrainians are indeed fatigued after nearly three years of full-scale war, but their war-weariness is not just a matter of exhaustion. It stems from pre-existing fractures in the nation’s sociopolitical foundations, which the war has only deepened."
At the start of the invasion, there was a surge of national unity and volunteerism. However, as the war drags on, a "stark realization" has emerged: "The state is distributing the burdens and benefits of the war unequally. While some benefit materially or politically, others bear disproportionate sacrifices."
The report cites polling data suggesting that public support for the war effort is waning:
- In April 2024, only 10% of respondents said most of their relatives were ready to be mobilized.
- A June survey showed that only 32% supported the new mobilization law, while 52% opposed it.
- In July, only 32% disagreed with the statement: "Mobilization will have no effect other than increased deaths."
The report highlights growing draft dodging, with men actively avoiding conscription. Under the April mobilization law, all eligible men were required to submit their details to draft offices by July 17. However:
- Of the 10 million eligible men, only 4 million complied, while 6 million refused.
- Of those who registered, 50-80% were found to have medical or other exemptions.
Meanwhile, Telegram channels warning about mobilization officers continue to operate despite crackdowns, and authorities have launched investigations against 500,000 men for draft evasion.
The report also details desperate escape attempts, revealing that since 2022, at least 45 Ukrainians have drowned in the Tysa River while trying to flee conscription. Some have been shot by Ukrainian border patrols, and in March, a video went viral showing a guard firing into the river, declaring: "$1,000 to cross this river isn’t worth it."
A Ukrainian journalist, recently mobilized, lamented the lack of patriotism among his fellow conscripts: "Most of the people I serve with are from poor, rural regions. They’re more interested in discussing government corruption than anything else."
The report concludes that while Ukraine’s “warrior elite”—composed of activists, intellectuals, and NGO workers—continues to advocate for fighting until victory, a discontented working-class majority is bearing the brunt of the war.
Comments