Skip to main content

Gujarat's growth rate in 2012-13 likely to be less than six per cent, one of the worst in recent years

By Rajiv Shah 
This piece of news should make power policy makers of the Gujarat government – wanting to put Gujarat at 11.2 per cent rate of growth per year for five consecutive years, 2012-17 – set out to think if they were not hyping out their claims a little too high. Latest information available from authoritative sources has suggested that Gujarat would be back to single digit growth for the second consecutive year, in 2012-13, which is quite unprecedented in the last more than a decade. In fact, available figures suggest, that the actual rate of growth of Gujarat economy is all set to be the worst since 2006-07. Yet, interestingly, none in the state corridors of power is ready to admit it, at least through documents, about the poor performance of the economy. Even then, the budget books, which seek to hide details of the state of the economy of Gujarat, have quietly admitted things policy makers would not like to make public. 
Even then, a recently released a budget book, “Statements under the Gujarat Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2005”, has sought to paint a very rosy picture for the state’s growth rate, though refusing to confront reality. It says, “The state has emerged as the growth engine of India and its pace of economic growth continues to be higher than the national average. The State economy at current prices has recorded an annualized growth rate of 16.65% for the last eight years (2004-05 to 2012-13), one of the highest in the country. The near stagnant global growth scenario with the effect of sovereign debt crisis of European countries as well as high level of domestic inflation and high interest rates, have seriously affected the Indian economy, which is witnessing a sharp decline in growth in FY 2012-13. Despite these challenges the state’s economy is expected to grow at 13.98 % over the last year.”
What the budget book does not say is, the rate of growth of gross state domestic product (GSDP), 13.98 per cent, does not preclude inflationary pressure. If economists are to be believed, GSDP is never calculated at the current prices, which includes inflation, but at constant prices, by deducting what is called “deflator rate”, in order to arrive at the actual rate of growth, at constant prices. In fact, Gujarat’s policy makers have nothing to boast about when talk about the rate of growth vis-à-vis the national average. Government of India documents show that in 2012-13, India’s rate of growth, at current prices (which includes inflation) would be 13.3 per cent, which is very near that of Gujarat’s. However, once deflator is applied, at 2004-05 prices, to arrive at constant prices, the actual rate comes to a five per cent!
While no authentic deflator separately for Gujarat is available for 2012-13, a senior consultant in Ahmedabad estimates, talking with this correspondent, that the actual GSDP growth rate in Gujarat (at 2004-05 prices) would be between six and eight per cent. If the national deflator is applied to Gujarat, the state’s GSDP rate of growth would be 13.98 per cent minus 8.3 per cent – or 5.68 per cent at constant prices, to be exact. There is certainly nothing to boast about this, too, as this would be very near to the national average of five per cent. The consultant quotes some sources, still to be confirmed, to say that Gujarat’s deflator for 2012-13 would be 6.92 per cent. If this is true, then the state’s real growth, at constant prices, would be 7.06 per cent, again nothing to boast about at a time when the state’s policy makers have declaring from rooftops that it would double digit plus for five years!
Whether it is 5.68 per cent or 7.06 per cent, it is a fact that this would be one of the lowest rates of growth for since 2006-07. Year-wise figures show this quite clearly – in 2006-07, Gujarat’s GSDP growth (at constant 2004-05 prices) was 8.4 per cent, which went up to 11.0 per cent in 2007-08. The next year, in 2008-09, it plummeted to 6.8 per cent, and then for two consecutive years it was in double digit – 11.2 per cent in 2009-10 and 10.0 per cent in in 2010-11. In 2011-12, figures for which have been provided by another Gujarat government budget book, “Socio-Economic Review: Gujarat State”, it would be 8.5 per cent. Worse, out of seven years, in four, Gujarat would be witnessing single digit growth, once again belying the hope of coming anywhere near 11.2 per cent annual rate of growth.

1. Gujarat's GSDP rate of growth at current prices: 
2004-05                     -
2005-06                 20.34
2006-07                 15.92
2007-08                 16.07
2008-09                 11.73
2009-10                 17.22
2010-11                 22.99
2011-12                 15.33
2012-13                 13.98 (Advanced Estimates)

2. Gujarat's actual GSDP rate of growth at constant 2004-05 prices: 
2004-05                 -
2006-07                 8.4
2007-08               11.0
2008-09                 6.8
2009-10               11.2
2010-11               10.0
2011-12                 8.5
2012-13                 5.7 (Advanced Estimates)



'Flawed' argument: Gandhi had minimal role, naval mutinies alone led to Independence

Counterview Desk Reacting to a Counterview  story , "Rewiring history? Bose, not Gandhi, was real Father of Nation: British PM Attlee 'cited'" (January 26, 2016), an avid reader has forwarded  reaction  in the form of a  link , which carries the article "Did Atlee say Gandhi had minimal role in Independence? #FactCheck", published in the site The article seeks to debunk the view, reported in the Counterview story, taken by retired army officer GD Bakshi in his book, “Bose: An Indian Samurai”, which claims that Gandhiji had a minimal role to play in India's freedom struggle, and that it was Netaji who played the crucial role. We reproduce the article here. Text: Nowadays it is said by many MK Gandhi critics that Clement Atlee made a statement in which he said Gandhi has ‘minimal’ role in India's independence and gave credit to naval mutinies and with this statement, they concluded the whole freedom struggle.

BSF should take full responsibility for death of 4 kids in West Bengal: Rights defender

By Kirity Roy*  One is deeply disturbed and appalled by the callous trench-digging by BSF in Chetnagachh village under Daspara Gram Panchayat, Chopra, North Dinajpur District, West Bengal that has claimed the lives of four children. Along the entire stretch of Indo-Bangladesh border of West Bengal instead of guarding the actual border delineated by the international border pillars, BSF builds fences and digs trenches well inside the Indian territory, passing through villages and encroaching on private lands, often without due clearance or consent. 

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Don't agree on domestic subsidies, ensure food security at WTO meet: Farmer leaders

Counterview Desk  The Indian Coordination Committee of Farmers Movements (ICCFM), a top network of farmers’ organizations in India, in a letter to Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry, has asked him to “safeguard food security and sovereignty, even as ensuring peasants' rights" at the 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO MC 13), to take place from 26 to 29 February 2024 in Abu Dhabi.

Students, lawyers, professors detained in Delhi for demonstrating in support of farmers

By Our Representative  About 25 protestors, belonging to the civil rights network, Campaign Against State Repression (CASR), a coalition of over 40 organisations, were detained at Jantar Mantar for holding a demonstration in support of the farmers' stir on Friday. Those detained included students, lawyers and professors, including Prof Nandita Narain and Prof N Sachin. 

Solar energy funding dips 9% in 2023; 2024 'kicks off' with US$1 billion investment

By Lakshmitha Raj*  Solar energy tech companies have already secured slightly over US$1 billion in funding in 2024 (till Feb 7, 2024) after total funding into Solar Energy companies in India fell 9% to US$1.55B in 2023 from US$1.7B in 2022. A total of 39 $100M+ rounds have been closed till date, with Delhi leading the city-wise funding, followed by Gurugram and Mumbai.

Social justice day amidst 'official neglect' of salt pan workers in Little Rann of Kutch

By Prerana Pamkar*  In India’s struggle for Independence, the Salt Satyagraha stands as a landmark movement and a powerful symbol of nonviolent resistance. Led by Mahatma Gandhi, countless determined citizens walked from Sabarmati Ashram to Dandi in Gujarat. However, the Gujarat which witnessed the power of the common Indian during the freedom struggle is now in the throes of another significant movement: this time it is seeking to free salt pan workers from untenable working conditions in the Little Rann of Kutch (LRK).

Sharp 61-85% fall in Tech startup funding in India's top 'business-friendly' States

By Rajiv Shah Funding in Tech startups in top business-friendly Indian states has witnessed a major fall, a data intelligence platform for private market research has said in a series of reports it has released this month. Analysing Tech startup data of Telangana, Maharashtra, Delhi NCR, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala, Tracxn Technologies Ltd , the Bengaluru-based research firm, finds that except for Kerala, funding witnessed a fall of anywhere between 61% and 85%.

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

Jallianwala massacre: Why Indian govt hasn't ever officially sought apology from UK

By Manjari Chatterjee Miller*  The king of the Netherlands, Willem-Alexander, apologized in July 2023 for his ancestors’ role in the colonial slave trade. He is not alone in expressing remorse for past wrongs. In 2021, France returned 26 works of art seized by French colonial soldiers in Africa – the largest restitution France has ever made to a former colony. In the same year, Germany officially apologized for its 1904-08 genocide of the Herero and Nama people of Namibia and agreed to fund reconstruction and development projects in Namibia. .