Fragmented opposition and identity politics shaping Tamil Nadu’s 2026 election battle

By Syed Ali Mujtaba*

Tamil Nadu is set to go to the polls in April 2026, and the political battle lines are beginning to take shape. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the state on January 23, 2026, marked the formal launch of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign against the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Addressing multiple public meetings, the Prime Minister accused the DMK government of corruption, criminality, and dynastic politics, and called for Tamil Nadu to be “freed from DMK’s chains.”

PM Modi alleged that the DMK had turned Tamil Nadu into a drug-ridden state and betrayed public trust by governing through what he described as “Corruption, Mafia and Crime,” derisively terming it “CMC rule.” He claimed that despite making numerous promises, the DMK had failed to deliver meaningful development. He also targeted what he described as the party’s dynastic character, arguing that the government functioned primarily for the benefit of a single family and lacked internal democracy and accountability.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin responded sharply, dismissing the BJP’s “double-engine” governance model as a “dabba model,” arguing that it was ineffective and unsuitable for the state. He rejected the Prime Minister’s claims that Tamil Nadu lagged in development, asserting instead that BJP-ruled states performed poorly on several development indicators when compared to Tamil Nadu. Stalin maintained that the state had achieved historic growth despite what he described as obstacles created by the BJP-led Union government.

Drawing broader comparisons, Stalin argued that states governed by non-BJP parties—such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Karnataka, and West Bengal—had recorded better development outcomes than BJP-ruled states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar. The exchange underscored the growing ideological divide between Dravidian regional politics and the BJP’s national narrative.

The DMK currently leads the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), which includes the Congress, the CPI and CPI(M), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). The alliance positions itself around social justice, welfare politics, and the protection of Tamil linguistic and cultural identity.

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which had earlier been a key partner of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu, severed ties with the BJP after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Since then, the BJP has been attempting to expand its independent footprint in the state, either by contesting alone or leading smaller coalitions. Other parties such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) continue to play variable roles, shifting alliances or contesting independently.

Tamil Nadu’s politics has long been shaped by a bipolar system dominated by the DMK and AIADMK, with power alternating between the two through welfare-oriented populism. Since 1996, no party has secured a clear majority on its own, making alliances with smaller caste-based and regional parties critical to electoral success. Language and identity politics also remain central, with Dravidian ideology positioning itself in opposition to what is perceived as northern cultural and political domination.

The current political moment, however, is marked by fragmentation. The AIADMK remains weakened by internal divisions and leadership struggles, diminishing its ability to present a cohesive challenge. Cinema continues to intersect with politics, as actors leverage popularity for political entry. Actor Vijay has launched the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), while Naam Tamilar Katchi, led by actor Seeman, has consolidated a recognizable vote base. The DMDK, founded by the late actor Vijayakant and now led by Premalatha Vijayakant, remains a marginal but relevant player.

The PMK, representing the Vanniyar community, is itself divided between factions led by party founder Dr. S. Ramadoss and his son, Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss. Such splits further complicate alliance arithmetic in the state.

For the BJP, Tamil Nadu remains a challenging terrain. Despite sustained efforts to establish a foothold, the party has struggled to translate its national strength into electoral gains in the state. Its attempts to align with or influence Dravidian parties have met with limited success, and its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections underscored the resilience of regional identity politics.

Following the AIADMK’s exit from the NDA, the BJP appears to be recalibrating its strategy, with increased attention on actor Vijay and his newly formed party. While Vijay’s popularity is undeniable, claims of large-scale voter support remain speculative, with no concrete electoral evidence yet available. Political observers caution that cinematic appeal alone has rarely translated into sustained political success in Tamil Nadu.

In the absence of a unified opposition and amid widespread apprehension about the expansion of Hindutva politics in a state rooted in Dravidian ideology, the DMK enters the 2026 assembly election from a position of relative strength. The fragmented opposition landscape and the consolidation of regional identity politics may ultimately work to the ruling party’s advantage, shaping the contours of the forthcoming electoral contest.

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*Journalist based in Chennai

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