Blogger debunks Modi's counterfeit logic for noteban, as there's high sezure rate of Rs 400 crore fake currency

Blogger James Wilson, a consultant with the Government of Kerala, debunking the popular myth that Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) were 30-40% of the total currency in circulation, has said, quoting official sources, that, in value terms, they did not form more than 0.0018% of the total currency in circulation in 2015-16, with a declining trend over the last five years.
Analyzing RBI Annual Reports from 2000-2001 to 2015-16 to “gather pointers about the FICN detection in the banking system”, Wilson says in a blog, the figures suggests that “the percentage of FICN in 2000-2001 was 0.0015%, which is seen steadily declined to 0.0004% up to 2005-06, which then steeply increased to 0.0023% in 2008-09 and reached to 0.0018% in the year 2015-16.”
Coming to individual currencies, the blogger says, the FICN of Rs 1000 notes, which were introduced in the circulation in 2000-2001, took eight years to cross the 0.001% of the value of the total Rs 1000 notes in circulation. “During the year 2011-12 it reach 0.0024% and more or less remain around that value till 2015-16 (0.0023%)”, the blogger reveals.
As for the FICN of Rs 500 notes, the blogger says, they were “around 0.0054% in the year 2000-01 dropping to 0.0003% in FY 2005-06, steadily rising to 0.0036% in the year 2008-09, and seen further showing a decreasing trend and reached 0.0017% during the year 2015-16, even though it is almost 50% of the currency in circulation by value basis.”

“I am at a loss”, says the blogger, to understand as to why the government decided to demonetize Rs 500 notes, which are showing a consistent decreasing trend since 2008-09. Also, the high value Rs 1,000 notes, which showed an increasing trend, became steady.”
Pointing towards another figure, the blogger reveals, the in an answer to an unstarred question, on August 5 last year, the Union finance minister replied, “A study on FICN issues, including estimation of FICN in circulation, has been undertaken by the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata, under the overall supervision of National Investigation Agency (NIA). As per the study, the face value of FICN in circulation was found to be about Rs 400 crore.”
The minister insisted, “It was found the value remained constant for the last 4 years.”
Pointing out that Rs 400 crore is “only 0.02% of the currency in circulation”, Wilson says, “Though it is a small quantity, FICN is used for various subversive activities such as espionage, smuggling of arms, drugs and other contraband in India. As per the NIA probe, which has a Terror Funding and Fake Currency Cell, Pakistan is the major supplier of FICN in India.”
The blogger says, official sources further suggest, “the banking system detected around Rs 30 crore of FICN annually and law enforcement agencies seized around Rs 40 crore of FICN annually for the last couple of years.”

Thus, he says, “A total of around Rs 70 crore of FICN were detected during the last couple of years by the checks and balances in the system. So, if we take the ISI, Kolkota, study as a yard stick, only Rs 70 crore of FICN of the estimated quantity of Rs 400 crore, i.e., 17.5% of the FICN is seized by our systems.”
Meanwhile, says Wilson, the ISI, Kolkota which did the study of FICN, concluded that "the existing systems of seizure and detection are enough to flush out the quantum of FICN being infused". The institute, he adds, concluded that “if detection can be improved, the value of FICN in circulation can be reduced by at least 20% annually.”

Comments

Irrational? Basis for fear among Hindus about being 'swamped' by Muslims

I was amused while reading an article titled "Ham Paanch, Hamare Pachees", shared on Facebook, by well-known policy analyst Mohan Guruswamy, an alumnus of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, and the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. Guruswamy, who has also worked as an advisor to the Finance Minister with the rank of Secretary to the Government of India, seeks to probe, as he himself states, "the supposed Muslim attitude to family planning"—a theme that was invoked by Narendra Modi as Gujarat Chief Minister ahead of the December 2002 assembly polls.

Why's Australian crackdown rattling Indian students? Whopping 25% fake visa applications

This is what happened several months ago. A teenager living in the housing society where I reside was sent to Australia to study at a university in Sydney with much fanfare. The parents, whom I often met as part of a group, would tell us how easily the boy got his admission with the help of "some well-meaning friends," adding that they had obtained an education loan to ensure he could study at a graduate school.

Tracking a lost link: Soviet-era legacy of Gujarati translator Atul Sawani

The other day, I received a message from a well-known activist, Raju Dipti, who runs an NGO called Jeevan Teerth in Koba village, near Gujarat’s capital, Gandhinagar. He was seeking the contact information of Atul Sawani, a translator of Russian books—mainly political and economic—into Gujarati for Progress Publishers during the Soviet era. He wanted to collect and hand over scanned soft copies, or if possible, hard copies, of Soviet books translated into Gujarati to Arvind Gupta, who currently lives in Pune and is undertaking the herculean task of collecting and making public soft copies of Soviet books that are no longer available in the market, both in English and Indian languages.

Gujarat slips in India Justice Report 2025: From model state to mid-table performer

Overall ranking in IJR reports The latest India Justice Report (IJR), prepared by legal experts with the backing of several civil society organisations and aimed at ranking the capacity of states to deliver justice, has found Gujarat—considered by India's rulers as a model state for others to follow—slipping to the 11th position from fourth in 2022.

Punishing senior citizens? Flipkart, Shopsy stop Cash on Delivery in Ahmedabad!

The other day, someone close to me attempted to order some goodies on Flipkart and its subsidiary Shopsy. After preparing a long list of items, this person, as usual, opted for the Cash on Delivery (popularly known as COD) option, as this senior citizen isn't very familiar with online prepaid payment methods like UPI, credit or debit cards, or online bank transfers through websites. In fact, she is hesitant to make online payments, fearing, "I may make a mistake," she explained, adding, "I read a lot about online frauds, so I always choose COD as it's safe. I have no knowledge of how to prepay online."

A conman, a demolition man: How 'prominent' scribes are defending Pritish Nandy

How to defend Pritish Nandy? That’s the big question some of his so-called fans seem to ponder, especially amidst sharp criticism of his alleged insensitivity during his journalistic career. One such incident involved the theft and publication of the birth certificate of Masaba Gupta, daughter of actor Neena Gupta, in the Illustrated Weekly of India, which Nandy was editing at the time. He reportedly did this to uncover the identity of Masaba’s father.

Of lingering shadow of Haren Pandya's murder during Modi's Gujarat days

Sunita Williams’ return to Earth has, ironically, reopened an old wound: the mysterious murder of her first cousin, the popular BJP leader Haren Pandya, in 2003. Initially a supporter of Narendra Modi, Haren turned against him, not sparing any opportunity to do things that would embarrass Modi. Social media and some online news portals, including The Wire , are abuzz with how Modi’s recent invitation to Sunita to visit India comes against the backdrop of how he, as Gujarat’s chief minister, didn’t care to offer any official protocol support during her 2007 visit to Gujarat.

Area set aside in Ahmedabad for PM's affordable housing scheme 'has gone to big builders'

Following my article on affordable housing in Counterview, which quoted a top real estate consultant, I was informed that affordable housing—a scheme introduced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi—has deviated from its original intent. A former senior bureaucrat, whom I used to meet during my Sachivalaya days, told me that an entire area in Ahmedabad, designated for the scheme, has been used to construct costly houses instead.

Just 5% Gujarat Dalit households 'recognise' social reformers who inspired Ambedkar

An interesting survey conducted across 22 districts and 32 villages in Gujarat sheds light on the representation of key social reformers in Dalit households. It suggests that while Dr. B.R. Ambedkar's photo was displayed in a majority of homes, images of Lord Buddha and the 19th-century reformist couple, Savitribai Phule and Jyotiba Phule, were not as commonly represented.

Search This Blog