Demographic parameters of India@75: resource allocation, political representation

By IMPRI Team
As per UN Population Prospects 2022, India is going to be the most populous country in the world. In this regard, IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute, New Delhi with #IMPRI Center for Human Dignity and Development (CHDD), organized a panel discussion, #WebPolicyTalk, as part of the series The State of Population Development- #PopulationAnd Development on India@75: Most Populous Country?
The moderator of the event was Mr Devender Singh, Global Studies Programme, University of Freiburg and a Visiting Senior Fellow at IMPRI. The panellists for the event were Prof P.M Kulkarni, Demographer, Retired Professor of Population Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University(JNU), New Delhi; Dr U.V Somayajulu, Co-Founder, CEO and Executive Director, Sigma Research and Consulting; Dr Sonia George, General Secretary, Self Employed Women’s Association (SEWA), Kerala; Prof K.S James, Director and Senior Professor, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai.
The session was started by the moderator, Mr Devender Singh. He said the question mark in the topic denotes what the experts think. Although India completes 75 years of Independence, it is reaching the milestone of being the most populous country. He introduced us to India’s demographic journey from when India got independent to now by providing data and figures related to population, life expectancy, total fertility rate and overall development of the country. The session was conducted to discuss what kind of journey we had and will be having in terms of demographic parameters, resource allocation, political representation and how different states will be affected by diversity and also what it means for different population groups.
Prof K.S. James shared his views on how the title is related to size and how the population will affect our country’s demography. According to United Nations (UN) projection, currently, the total fertility rate is 2.42 in the world; it is declining even in developing countries like India. So, by 2050, the world will achieve the replacement level of fertility rate and thereafter population will stabilize by the end of the century. He divided his lecture into 3 parts to give an overview of world demography, India’s Demography and the Fertility Rate. He gave insights into the comparison of China and India’s populations as according to the United Nations, India will overtake China in terms of population by 2023.
The growth rate of China is declining whereas it is increasing in India. The growth rate of India will stabilize by 2060. One of the major problems of poverty is the population size but data shows that the demographic structure of the population is optimistic. All showing India already reached the replacement level of fertility rate. Population structure is changing, 65% of people is in the working group. Good education and investment will benefit the country.
Prof P.M. Kulkarni talked about population size and the growth of the population. He also said that the structure of the population matters a lot. The data figures show, that gradually there is an increase in the old age group because the fertility rate is declining and action needs to be taken so that ageing is not an issue in future. The state should look at Human Resource Development as the children population is declining slowly so they need to be given quality education and much should be invested in them. There are changes in the share of the population by the different states due to interstate migration. If there is no inter-state migration then the particular state will develop and it will lead to many problems, hence there is a need to be smoother migration.

Dr Sonia George addresses the population ratios of our country. There is an alarming gap between the sex ratio and inequality. Currently, India stands at 135 in the Global Gender Gap and is continuing its poor participation in the economy. Regarding the economic situation, education and health are at a very low position and thus need to be improved. In the age group of 20-29, the young population is 92.4 million out of which only 10.7% are pursuing education and 9.4% are in paid jobs; 80% of the women after marriage are a homemaker. Domestic violence is increasing and girls between 15-49 severely report physical partner violence. There is a severe wage gap between men and women as men earn 7 times more than women. In most of the informal sector majority of women faces a wage gap. Post covid men have come back to the labour market but 2/3rd of the women are severely facing issues coming back to the labour market. Cultural conditions are so high and devasted that are making them confined to four walls.
Dr U.V. Somayajulu discussed Sustainable Development Agenda 2030, Role of Data and Role of Population Statistics. The Sustainable Development Agenda have 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Linkages between health and population were also drawn through his discussion. The implication of population growth is there in terms of environmental challenges, health, food security, education, employment and even water availability. Among all of this, there lie issues with data compatibility.
Dr Devendra asked various questions to Mr K.S. James, one of them being about the negative effect of the induced fertility rate and if we can conclusively say that we have entered in low fertility rate era and start focusing on the composition of the population. Mr K.S James answered that we need to enhance healthy life expectancy and we can say that our fertility is not much higher. Prof Kulkarni agreed with Mr James’ thoughts. The projection sees that the population will peak and gradually decline. We don’t need to influence the population but look after ageing and migration issues and make the best use of human resources. Mr Devendra questioned Prof P.M. Kulkarni about how competent we are to produce data on regular basis and how much the state look at population scientist.
Prof. P.M. Kulkarni said e need to look for better projections; So, in every 2-3 years we need to have projections. The state office should be encouraged to collect data at the district level and no longer depend on UN data. Mr Devendra’s last question was for Dr Sonia George regarding the problem with women’s participation in the labour market and the reason why it is declining. She said that the women earning for livelihood are not included in any data collection and women have not been considered as primary livelihood earners. At last Mr Devendra discussed what are the opportunities and challenges in this changing scenario in the diversity of the population. Hence there should be an overall development of the population.
---
Acknowledgement: Kashish Prasad, research intern at IMPRI

Comments

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor* This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

Gujarat Information Commission issues warning against misinterpretation of RTI orders

By A Representative The Gujarat Information Commission (GIC) has issued a press note clarifying that its orders limiting the number of Right to Information (RTI) applications for certain individuals apply only to those specific applicants. The GIC has warned that it will take disciplinary action against any public officials who misinterpret these orders to deny information to other citizens. The press note, signed by GIC Secretary Jaideep Dwivedi, states that the Right to Information Act, 2005, is a powerful tool for promoting transparency and accountability in public administration. However, the commission has observed that some applicants are misusing the act by filing an excessive number of applications, which disproportionately consumes the time and resources of Public Information Officers (PIOs), First Appellate Authorities (FAAs), and the commission itself. This misuse can cause delays for genuine applicants seeking justice. In response to this issue, and in acc...

Job opportunities decreasing, wages remain low: Delhi construction workers' plight

By Bharat Dogra* It was about 32 years back that a hut colony in posh Prashant Vihar area of Delhi was demolished. It was after a great struggle that the people evicted from here could get alternative plots that were not too far away from their earlier colony. Nirmana, an organization of construction workers, played an important role in helping the evicted people to get this alternative land. At that time it was a big relief to get this alternative land, even though the plots given to them were very small ones of 10X8 feet size. The people worked hard to construct new houses, often constructing two floors so that the family could be accommodated in the small plots. However a recent visit revealed that people are rather disheartened now by a number of adverse factors. They have not been given the proper allotment papers yet. There is still no sewer system here. They have to use public toilets constructed some distance away which can sometimes be quite messy. There is still no...

Uttarakhand tunnel disaster: 'Question mark' on rescue plan, appraisal, construction

By Bhim Singh Rawat* As many as 40 workers were trapped inside Barkot-Silkyara tunnel in Uttarkashi after a portion of the 4.5 km long, supposedly completed portion of the tunnel, collapsed early morning on Sunday, Nov 12, 2023. The incident has once again raised several questions over negligence in planning, appraisal and construction, absence of emergency rescue plan, violations of labour laws and environmental norms resulting in this avoidable accident.

'MGNREGA crisis deepening': NSM demands fair wages and end to digital exclusions

By A Representative The NREGA Sangharsh Morcha (NSM), a coalition of independent unions of MGNREGA workers, has warned that the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is facing a “severe crisis” due to persistent neglect and restrictive measures imposed by the Union Government.

Rally in Patna: Non-farmer bodies to highlight plight of agriculture in Eastern India ahead of march to Parliament

P Sainath By A Representative Ahead of the march to Parliament on November 29-30, 2018, organized by over 210 farmer and agricultural worker organisations of the country demanding a 21-day special session of Parliament to deliberate on remedial measures for safeguarding the interest of farm, farmers and agricultural workers, a mass rally been organized for November 23, Gandhi Sangrahalaya (Gandhi Museum), Gandhi Maidan, Patna. Say the organizers, the Eastern region merits special attention, because, while crisis of farmers and agricultural workers in Western, Southern and Northern India has received some attention in the media and central legislature, the plight of those in the Eastern region of the country (Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Eastern UP) has remained on the margins. To be addressed by P Sainath, founder of People’s Archive of Rural India (PARI), a statement issued ahead of the rally says, the Eastern India was the most prosperous regi...

India's health workers have no legal right for their protection, regrets NGO network

Counterview Desk In a letter to Union labour and employment minister Santosh Gangwar, the civil rights group Occupational and Environmental Health Network of India (OEHNI), writing against the backdrop of strike by Bhabha hospital heath care workers, has insisted that they should be given “clear legal right for their protection”.

As 2024 draws nearer, threatening signs appear of more destructive wars

By Bharat Dogra The four years from 2020 to 2023 have been very difficult and high risk years for humanity. In the first two years there was a pandemic and such severe disruption of social and economic life that countless people have not yet recovered from its many-sided adverse impacts. In the next two years there were outbreaks of two very high-risk wars which have worldwide implications including escalation into much wider conflicts. In addition there were highly threatening signs of increasing possibility of other very destructive wars. As the year 2023 appears to be headed for ending on a very grim note, there are apprehensions about what the next year 2024 may bring, and there are several kinds of fears. However to come back to the year 2020 first, the pandemic harmed and threatened a very large number of people. No less harmful was the fear epidemic, the epidemic of increasing mental stress and the cruel disruption of the life and livelihoods particularly among the weaker s...

Targeted eviction of Bengali-speaking Muslims across Assam districts alleged

By A Representative A delegation led by prominent academic and civil rights leader Sandeep Pandey visited three districts in Assam—Goalpara, Dhubri, and Lakhimpur—between 2 and 4 September 2025 to meet families affected by recent demolitions and evictions. The delegation reported widespread displacement of Bengali-speaking Muslim communities, many of whom possess valid citizenship documents including Aadhaar, voter ID, ration cards, PAN cards, and NRC certification.

Counterview

Search This Blog