India's investment proposals to be lowest since 2004-05 in fiscal 2017-18; just 60% of those in 2016-17, predicts CMIE

Click on the photograph for an enlarged view

By Rajiv Shah
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the country's top independent consultant, has said that the fiscal 2017-18 "is likely to go down as the worst possible year for investments in India", predicting, "New investment proposals are likely to stabilise around Rs 8 trillion in 2017-18, which would be about 60 per cent of the new proposals made during 2016-17 and would be the lowest level since 2004-05."
Coming against the backdrop of the Government of India basking in the glory over "rise" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter from 5.7% to 6.3%, the CMIE's fresh analysis, based on the data it has collected, says, "This would be the third consecutive year of a fall in new investments since they spiked momentarily in 2014-15. The difference is that the fall in 2017-18 would be sharper than in earlier years."
The CMIE further says, "Revival of projects that were shelved or abandoned earlier would likely add up to about Rs 1.2 trillion in 2017-18. This would be half of the revivals in 2016-17. Nevertheless, they assume greater importance now than ever before in the light of the fall in new investment proposals."
The CMIE continues, "Revived projects would account for nearly 15 per cent of new proposals in 2017-18. In 2016-17, they were 18 per cent of the value of all new projects. Till 2012-13, they were less than 10 per cent of new proposals". It adds, "Total investments made during the entire implementation of projects that would be completed during 2017-18 are likely to add up to a Rs 4 trillion. This is much smaller compared to Rs 6.3 trillion in 2016-17 and Rs 5.8 trillion in 2015-16."
Pointing out that the sum of Rs 4 trillion is "very small compared to the Rs 11 trillion worth of completions that were initially supposed to be commissioned during the year", the CMIE reveal, "Companies kept delaying their completion dates, and as a result, the estimates of completions during 2017-18 came down progressively during the year to Rs 9 trillion and then to Rs 7 trillion."

Mahesh Vyas

The analysis, by Mahesh Vyas is Managing Director and CEO of the CMIE, says, "The value of projects that get stalled, abandoned or shelved increased during 2017-18. In the first three quarters these added up to Rs 3.9 trillion which is the same as it was in the entire fiscal 2016-17." It adds, they are "slated to increase" to about Rs 6 trillion in fiscal 2017-18.
Noting that "another Rs 5.9 trillion worth of projects were dropped because of lack of any information on them for a very long time", the CMIE says, "Thus, the total attrition during the first three quarters was investments worth Rs 9.9 trillion", which could "cross Rs 14 trillion" in fiscal 2017-18.
In fact, according to the CMIE, "The ratio of projects attrition to accretion, i.e the ratio of projects stalled or dropped to the addition of projects because of new announcements or revival of old ones, is expected to rise sharply during 2017-18", adding, "Attrition would exceed accretions by over 50%... In the past, attrition of investments has never exceeded accretions."
Admitting that the "CMIE is somewhat conservative in announcing that a project is stalled", the analysis says, "Compared to the investments stalled, a much larger value of outstanding investments sits under the header 'Projects with no information, but live'. These amounted to Rs 15.8 trillion as of the end of December 2017 compared to accretions that amounted to Rs 9.9 trillion during the first three quarters ended December 2017."
Even as saying that "the pipeline of investments may quite big at Rs 182 trillion", thr CMIE does not fail to point out that "this pipeline hasn’t grown. It has, in fact, shrunk from its peak of Rs 185 trillion as of March 2017. Half of these outstanding projects have moved beyond the stage of mere announcements..."

Comments

The silencing of conscience: Ideological attacks on India’s judiciary and free thought

By Sunil Kumar* “Volunteers will pick up sticks to remove every obstacle that comes in the way of Sanatan and saints’ work.” — RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat (November 6, 2024, Chitrakoot) Eleven months later, on October 6, 2025, a man who threw a shoe inside the Supreme Court shouted, “India will not tolerate insults to Sanatan.” This incident was not an isolated act but a continuation of a pattern seen over the past decade—attacks on intellectuals, writers, activists, and journalists, sometimes in the name of institutions, sometimes by individual actors or organizations.

N-power plant at Mithi Virdi: CRZ nod is arbitrary, without jurisdiction

By Krishnakant* A case-appeal has been filed against the order of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) and others granting CRZ clearance for establishment of intake and outfall facility for proposed 6000 MWe Nuclear Power Plant at Mithi Virdi, District Bhavnagar, Gujarat by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) vide order in F 11-23 /2014-IA- III dated March 3, 2015. The case-appeal in the National Green Tribunal at Western Bench at Pune is filed by Shaktisinh Gohil, Sarpanch of Jasapara; Hajabhai Dihora of Mithi Virdi; Jagrutiben Gohil of Jasapara; Krishnakant and Rohit Prajapati activist of the Paryavaran Suraksha Samiti. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has issued a notice to the MoEF&CC, Gujarat Pollution Control Board, Gujarat Coastal Zone Management Authority, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and case is kept for hearing on August 20, 2015. Appeal No. 23 of 2015 (WZ) is filed, a...

History, culture and literature of Fatehpur, UP, from where Maulana Hasrat Mohani hailed

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Maulana Hasrat Mohani was a member of the Constituent Assembly and an extremely important leader of our freedom movement. Born in Unnao district of Uttar Pradesh, Hasrat Mohani's relationship with nearby district of Fatehpur is interesting and not explored much by biographers and historians. Dr Mohammad Ismail Azad Fatehpuri has written a book on Maulana Hasrat Mohani and Fatehpur. The book is in Urdu. He has just come out with another important book, 'Hindi kee Pratham Rachna: Chandayan' authored by Mulla Daud Dalmai.' During my recent visit to Fatehpur town, I had an opportunity to meet Dr Mohammad Ismail Azad Fatehpuri and recorded a conversation with him on issues of history, culture and literature of Fatehpur. Sharing this conversation here with you. Kindly click this link. --- *Human rights defender. Facebook https://www.facebook.com/vbrawat , X @freetohumanity, Skype @vbrawat

Citizens’ group to recall Justice Chagla’s alarm as India faces ‘undeclared' Emergency

By A Representative In a move likely to raise eyebrows among the powers-that-be, a voluntary organisation founded during the “dark days” of the Indira Gandhi -imposed Emergency has announced that it will hold a public conference in Ahmedabad to highlight what its office-bearers call today’s “undeclared Emergency.”

Celebrating 125 yr old legacy of healthcare work of missionaries

Vilas Shende, director, Mure Memorial Hospital By Moin Qazi* Central India has been one of the most fertile belts for several unique experiments undertaken by missionaries in the field of education and healthcare. The result is a network of several well-known schools, colleges and hospitals that have woven themselves into the social landscape of the region. They have also become a byword for quality and affordable services delivered to all sections of the society. These institutions are characterised by committed and compassionate staff driven by the selfless pursuit of improving the well-being of society. This is the reason why the region has nursed and nurtured so many eminent people who occupy high positions in varied fields across the country as well as beyond. One of the fruits of this legacy is a more than century old iconic hospital that nestles in the heart of Nagpur city. Named as Mure Memorial Hospital after a British warrior who lost his life in a war while defending his cou...

New RTI draft rules inspired by citizen-unfriendly, overtly bureaucratic approach

By Venkatesh Nayak* The Department of Personnel and Training , Government of India has invited comments on a new set of Draft Rules (available in English only) to implement The Right to Information Act, 2005 . The RTI Rules were last amended in 2012 after a long period of consultation with various stakeholders. The Government’s move to put the draft RTI Rules out for people’s comments and suggestions for change is a welcome continuation of the tradition of public consultation. Positive aspects of the Draft RTI Rules While 60-65% of the Draft RTI Rules repeat the content of the 2012 RTI Rules, some new aspects deserve appreciation as they clarify the manner of implementation of key provisions of the RTI Act. These are: Provisions for dealing with non-compliance of the orders and directives of the Central Information Commission (CIC) by public authorities- this was missing in the 2012 RTI Rules. Non-compliance is increasingly becoming a major problem- two of my non-compliance cases are...

World Bank arm accused of hiding crucial report on Gujarat’s Tata Mundra power project

By A Representative The Centre for Financial Accountability (CFA) has accused the Compliance Advisor Ombudsman (CAO), the accountability arm of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), of concealing crucial evidence related to the Tata Mundra coal power project in Gujarat during the period when the case was being heard in U.S. courts. In a press statement released on October 10, 2025, CFA said that the CAO’s final monitoring report, which was completed in 2019 but released only in September 2025, revealed that IFC had failed to take remedial action for years, even as environmental and livelihood harms to local communities worsened.

Urgent need to study cause of large number of natural deaths in Gulf countries

By Venkatesh Nayak* According to data tabled in Parliament in April 2018, there are 87.76 lakh (8.77 million) Indians in six Gulf countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While replying to an Unstarred Question (#6091) raised in the Lok Sabha, the Union Minister of State for External Affairs said, during the first half of this financial year alone (between April-September 2018), blue-collared Indian workers in these countries had remitted USD 33.47 Billion back home. Not much is known about the human cost of such earnings which swell up the country’s forex reserves quietly. My recent RTI intervention and research of proceedings in Parliament has revealed that between 2012 and mid-2018 more than 24,570 Indian Workers died in these Gulf countries. This works out to an average of more than 10 deaths per day. For every US$ 1 Billion they remitted to India during the same period there were at least 117 deaths of Indian Workers in Gulf ...

Epic war against caste system is constitutional responsibility of elected government

Edited by well-known Gujarat Dalit rights leader Martin Macwan, the book, “Bhed-Bharat: An Account of Injustice and Atrocities on Dalits and Adivasis (2014-18)” (available in English and Gujarati*) is a selection of news articles on Dalits and Adivasis (2014-2018) published by Dalit Shakti Prakashan, Ahmedabad. Preface to the book, in which Macwan seeks to answer key questions on why the book is needed today: *** The thought of compiling a book on atrocities on Dalits and thus present an overall Indian picture had occurred to me a long time ago. Absence of such a comprehensive picture is a major reason for a weak social and political consciousness among Dalits as well as non-Dalits. But gradually the idea took a different form. I found that lay readers don’t understand numbers and don’t like to read well-researched articles. The best way to reach out to them was storytelling. As I started writing in Gujarati and sharing the idea of the book with my friends, it occurred to me that while...

Search This Blog