The uncertain trajectory of the Iran war: Purpose, perception, and power

By Syed Ali Mujtaba* 

The trajectory of the Iran war remains uncertain, largely because its objectives are ambiguous and its purpose contested. What is clear, however, is that the conflict reflects deeper geopolitical rivalries rather than narrowly defined military goals. From the U.S. perspective, Iran’s defiance of Western demands has long been framed as a threat requiring containment. 

Washington’s stated objectives include dismantling Iran’s military capacity, curbing its nuclear program, and—implicitly—pursuing regime change. Some analysts argue that fragmentation of Iran into ethnic enclaves is also envisioned as a way to permanently weaken the state.

Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution marked a decisive break from U.S. influence, replacing the Shah’s pro-Western monarchy with a regime committed to independence from Western hegemony. Since then, Iran has faced sanctions, accusations of terrorism, and allegations of pursuing weapons of mass destruction. These narratives echo earlier U.S. justifications for interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The nuclear issue has been central. 

In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) placed Iran’s nuclear program under strict international monitoring, ensuring its peaceful character. Iran remains a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel—widely believed to possess hundreds of nuclear warheads—has refused to sign. This contrast raises questions about the credibility of U.S. claims that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threat.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs has argued that the conflict is less about nuclear proliferation and more about sustaining U.S.–Israeli dominance in the Middle East and securing control over energy reserves. He warns that such policies risk escalating into a wider global confrontation. The prospect of regime change in Iran faces significant obstacles. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, Iran lacks viable U.S.-backed proxies capable of seizing power. 

Figures such as Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, remain unpopular domestically. Past U.S. interventions—in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan—underscore the difficulty of imposing political transitions through external force. Without local proxies, regime change would require direct military occupation, a scenario likely to trigger prolonged guerrilla resistance. Iranian leaders have openly prepared for such a contingency, drawing parallels to historic anti-colonial struggles.

Should the war escalate, other powers—Russia, China, and North Korea—may intervene diplomatically or materially, much as they have in Ukraine. Iran, having endured sanctions and isolation for decades, is positioned to leverage external support to avoid outright defeat. Western analysts often suggest that Iran is being cornered into submission. Eastern commentators counter that the U.S. and Israel risk entrapment in a costly, unwinnable conflict reminiscent of Afghanistan. 

Already, voices within America question whether this war serves U.S. interests or primarily advances Israel’s agenda. Wars are easy to start but notoriously difficult to end. The Iran conflict could conclude as previous U.S. interventions have—in stalemate, withdrawal, or negotiated settlement. Iran may seek to use eventual talks to press for recognition of Palestinian sovereignty and broader regional realignments.

The Iran war is not merely about nuclear weapons or regime change. It is a test of U.S. hegemony, Israeli security ambitions, and Iran’s resilience. Its outcome will shape the political landscape of West Asia, potentially destabilizing unpopular Arab monarchies as much as challenging Iran itself. For now, Iran remains undefeated, and the war’s direction is far from settled. What is certain is that its consequences will reverberate far beyond Tehran and Washington, reshaping alliances and redefining power in the Middle East.

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*Journalist based in Chennai