Nepal votes amid regional rivalry: Why New Delhi is watching closely

By Nava Thakuria*

As Nepal holds an early national election on Thursday (5 March 2026), the people of northeast India, along with other regional observers, are watching the proceedings closely. The vote was necessitated after the government of Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli collapsed in September 2025 following widespread anti-government protests. The election will determine the composition of the 275-member House of Representatives, originally scheduled for 2027, under the stewardship of an interim government led by former Supreme Court justice Sushila Karki.

The electoral landscape features several prominent former prime ministers. Mr. Oli, leading the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML), is contesting the Jhapa-5 constituency against Balendra Shah of the Rastriya Swatantra Party. Mr. Shah, a former Kathmandu mayor who resigned to run, emerged as a key figure during the September 2025 protests. Mr. Oli, who resigned on 9 September, has suggested that foreign elements played a role in instigating the unrest that led to his government's fall, a claim that remains unsubstantiated. His tenure was also marked by periodic strains in relations with New Delhi, as he pursued closer ties with China and was critical of certain Indian policies.

Other former premiers in the fray include Pushpakamal Dahal (Prachanda) and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist), and Baburam Bhattarai of the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party. Two other former prime ministers, Sher Bahadur Deuba (Nepali Congress) and Jhala Nath Khanal, are not contesting this time. Mr. Prachanda, who led the Maoist insurgency, was a central figure in the abolition of the Hindu monarchy in 2008. The last king, Gyanendra Shah, now a private citizen, recently addressed the nation on National Unity Day, criticizing political leaders for what he described as two decades of national crises and expressing uncertainty about the electoral process and its outcome.

The election holds particular significance for India, especially its eastern and northeastern regions, given the unique bilateral relationship. Nepal shares a 1,751-kilometer open border with five Indian states: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Sikkim. This open border facilitates deep people-to-people ties, with millions of Nepali nationals living and working in India, including a sizable Nepali-speaking population in Assam. Consequently, political developments in Kathmandu have direct and tangible impacts across the border.

India’s interests in Nepal are multifaceted, encompassing hydropower trade, economic partnerships, cross-border connectivity projects, and mutual security concerns. In a demonstration of continued bilateral cooperation, New Delhi recently provided polling materials, including nearly 100 vehicles, to support Nepal's election preparations, responding to requests from Kathmandu.

However, strategic competition with China adds another layer of complexity to India's perspective. Beijing has significantly expanded its influence in Nepal in recent years. A key point of concern for New Delhi is Chinese investment in the Damak industrial park under its Belt and Road Initiative. The park's location near the Siliguri Corridor—a narrow stretch of Indian territory connecting the northeast to the rest of the country—is viewed in New Delhi as a strategic sensitivity.

For the people of northeast India, the primary hope is that this election will yield a stable and functional government in Kathmandu. The past two decades have seen numerous governments, often led by former Maoist factions with pro-Beijing leanings, collapse prematurely. A stable regime is seen as essential for effectively managing the shared border, preventing its misuse by criminal elements, and fostering a predictable and mutually beneficial relationship that enhances security and prosperity for communities on both sides.

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*Senior journalist based in Guwahati

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