Is it time to celebrate India's 'improved' sex ratio? Reasons to question NFHS data

By Aditi Chaudhary*
The recently published National Family Health Survey (NFHS) factsheet brought cheers amongst the public and the government. With Child Sex ratio (number of females per 1000 males in the age group 0 - 6 years) and overall sex ratio (the total number of females per 1000 males), both showing an improvement, NFHS-5 (2019-21) got applauded by all around.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the sex ratio to be 952 females per thousand males. An ideal scenario of sex ratio tends to be 1:1 owing to various factors such as natural selection at birth and others. The child sex ratio increased from 919 in NFHS-4 (2015-16) to 929 females per 1000 males in NFHS-5 (2019-21). Further, there is also an improvement in the Sex ratio of the total population from 991 females to 1020 females per 1000 males.
It is unprecedented and commendable for India to overcome all the biases and discrimination that women face and acquire a healthy sex ratio. The numerical excess of women over men while facing social evils like female foeticide, female infanticide and dowry deaths is welcome. This increase is the paradigm shift that the government and stakeholders have strived for.
However, the sex ratio mentioned by NFHS-5 cannot be truly considered to show the actual change. The 2011 Census had reported the sex ratio to be 940 females per 1000 males, and NFHS-5 shows 1020 females per 1,000 males.
Some reasons to question the phenomenal increase in sex ratio in the last decade are as follows:
First of all, one should understand the national-level survey's definition to calculate the sex ratio. It uses modified de facto enumeration It enumerates people based on “where they spent the last night prior to the day of enumeration”.
Here, we cannot deny the possibility of rural men and women being away from their homes on the last night of the enumeration. Men not present at the time of the survey, presumably for work or other reasons, could have also led to inflation of the sex ratio.
Then, NFHS is a well-designed, comprehensive survey that calculates sample size using probability proportion to size. However, inevitable systematic errors and disturbances during data collection due to the pandemic could have also fuelled the ratio. More females also appeared because the survey was conducted around the COVID-19 period and in two phases (pre-pandemic and second wave).

Also, one cannot rule out more males getting infected and succumbing to COVID-19. Men tend to migrate and go out more than women for work, and hence, the chances of getting infected increase. A considerable number of men also lost their lives while returning to their native place during the first phase of the pandemic.
Lastly, NFHS-5 shows that the child sex ratio is still low in Goa 838, Himachal Pradesh 875 and and Telangana 894. Alternatively, some states and UTs have also shown a decline in overall sex ratio from NFHS-4 to 5 viz Andaman and Nicobar, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Chhattisgarh and Chandigarh.
The map shows States with lower overall sex ratios are Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. This univocal pattern compels us to conclude that while there has been a specific increase, the magnitude nevertheless is highly questionable.
Hence, considering the various possibilities, there is still time and a lot to be done before settling and celebrating the increase in numbers. The accurate picture can only be shown by the upcoming Census of 2022 because undoubtedly, it is the biggest, most dependable, and complete population enumeration for any country.
---
*Senior Doctoral Fellow, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai

Comments

Anonymous said…

Very thoughtful and well-written article.
However, unsure of the reliability of the news sources, I came across a few where it was stated that the Census is India, 2021 is cancelled and the next census in India would be conducted in 2031. Do you think, we may not have access to a complete data of the Indian demography for another 10-12 years?

January 25, 2022

Neha Nipunika said…

Very Well written Aditi..

January 26, 2022

India's chemical industry: The missing piece of Atmanirbhar Bharat

By N.S. Venkataraman* Rarely a day passes without the Prime Minister or a cabinet minister speaking about the importance of Atmanirbhar Bharat . The Start-up India scheme is a pillar in promoting this vision, and considerable enthusiasm has been reported in promoting start-up projects across the country. While these developments are positive, Atmanirbhar Bharat does not seem to have made significant progress within the Indian chemical industry . This is a matter of high concern that needs urgent and dispassionate analysis.

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor* This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

Remembering a remarkable rebel: Personal recollections of Comrade Himmat Shah

By Rajiv Shah I first came in contact with Himmat Shah in the second half of the 1970s during one of my routine visits to Ahmedabad , my maternal hometown. I do not recall the exact year, but at that time I was working in Delhi with the CPI -owned People’s Publishing House (PPH) as its assistant editor, editing books and writing occasional articles for small periodicals. Himmatbhai — as I would call him — worked at the People’s Book House (PBH), the CPI’s bookshop on Relief Road in Ahmedabad.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

As 2024 draws nearer, threatening signs appear of more destructive wars

By Bharat Dogra The four years from 2020 to 2023 have been very difficult and high risk years for humanity. In the first two years there was a pandemic and such severe disruption of social and economic life that countless people have not yet recovered from its many-sided adverse impacts. In the next two years there were outbreaks of two very high-risk wars which have worldwide implications including escalation into much wider conflicts. In addition there were highly threatening signs of increasing possibility of other very destructive wars. As the year 2023 appears to be headed for ending on a very grim note, there are apprehensions about what the next year 2024 may bring, and there are several kinds of fears. However to come back to the year 2020 first, the pandemic harmed and threatened a very large number of people. No less harmful was the fear epidemic, the epidemic of increasing mental stress and the cruel disruption of the life and livelihoods particularly among the weaker s...

Celebrating 125 yr old legacy of healthcare work of missionaries

Vilas Shende, director, Mure Memorial Hospital By Moin Qazi* Central India has been one of the most fertile belts for several unique experiments undertaken by missionaries in the field of education and healthcare. The result is a network of several well-known schools, colleges and hospitals that have woven themselves into the social landscape of the region. They have also become a byword for quality and affordable services delivered to all sections of the society. These institutions are characterised by committed and compassionate staff driven by the selfless pursuit of improving the well-being of society. This is the reason why the region has nursed and nurtured so many eminent people who occupy high positions in varied fields across the country as well as beyond. One of the fruits of this legacy is a more than century old iconic hospital that nestles in the heart of Nagpur city. Named as Mure Memorial Hospital after a British warrior who lost his life in a war while defending his cou...

Farewell to Robin Smith, England’s Lionhearted Warrior Against Pace

By Harsh Thakor* Robin Smith, who has died at the age of 62, was among the most adept and convincing players of fast bowling during an era when English cricket was in decline and pace bowling was at its most lethal. Unwavering against the tormenting West Indies pace attack or the relentless Australians, Smith epitomised courage and stroke-making prowess. His trademark shot, an immensely powerful square cut, made him a scourge of opponents. Wearing a blue England helmet without a visor or grille, he relished pulling, hooking and cutting the quicks.

Urgent need to study cause of large number of natural deaths in Gulf countries

By Venkatesh Nayak* According to data tabled in Parliament in April 2018, there are 87.76 lakh (8.77 million) Indians in six Gulf countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While replying to an Unstarred Question (#6091) raised in the Lok Sabha, the Union Minister of State for External Affairs said, during the first half of this financial year alone (between April-September 2018), blue-collared Indian workers in these countries had remitted USD 33.47 Billion back home. Not much is known about the human cost of such earnings which swell up the country’s forex reserves quietly. My recent RTI intervention and research of proceedings in Parliament has revealed that between 2012 and mid-2018 more than 24,570 Indian Workers died in these Gulf countries. This works out to an average of more than 10 deaths per day. For every US$ 1 Billion they remitted to India during the same period there were at least 117 deaths of Indian Workers in Gulf ...

Jallianwala: Dark room documents reveal multi-religious, multi-caste martyrdom

By Shamsul Islam* Today India has turned into a grazing field for all kinds of religious bigots. The RSS/BJP rulers are openly declaring their commitment to turn India into a Hindu state, where Muslims and Christians have no place, and Sikhism, Buddhism and Jainism can survive only as sects of Hinduism. However, it this was the scenario 100 years back when the British rulers perpetrated one of the worst massacres in the modern history -- the Jallianwala Bagh massacre. People of India shackled by the most powerful imperialist power of the world, Britain, presented a heroic united resistance. It is not hearsay but proved by contemporary official, mostly British documents. These amazing documents were part of British archives which became National Archives of India after Independence. As a pleasant surprise these documents were made public to mark the 75th commemoration of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre as part of an exhibition titled, 'Archives and Jallianwala Bagh: A Saga of ...

Search This Blog