India's unemployment to reach 6.75% in April, highest since July 2017; weekly rate on April 8 was even higher, 7.41%

By A Representative
India's top data consultancy firm, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has estimated that the weekly unemployment rate spiked to 7.41 per cent in the week ended April 8, which is the highest weekly unemployment rate in 78 weeks, or since early October 2016. Pointing out that the monthly estimate are based on different set of crieteria, CMIE says, it would be 6.75 per cent in April 2018, the highest since July 2017.
In an analysis based on the top consultancy firm's data, Mahesh Vyas, its senior expert, has said, while it is true that a solitary spike does not always tell a true story, and it could possibly be an "outlier", the fact remains, the unemployment rate in India was around 7.25 per cent during the first fortnight of April 2018, which suggests that "this unemployment rate is high compared to the levels observed in a fairly long time."
Pointing out that this unemployment rate is "significantly higher than the observed average of around 6.5 per cent in the preceding weeks", the CMIE expert says, this suggests, "the preceding week’s 7.41 per cent does not look like an outlier but, possibly, looks like an indication that the unemployment rate has inched up again."
Noting that the unemployment rate has been "rising since July 2017 when it clocked a mere 3.4 per cent", Vyas says, "The rate rose quickly to 5 per cent by October 2017 and then stabilised around 5 per cent for three months before spurting to 6 per cent in February and March 2018."
The senior expert predicts, "Now, with data for two weeks in hand, it seems poised to rise higher in April. It would be safe to assume that the rate has risen and April is likely to report an unemployment rate that would be the highest since demonetisation."
Pointing towards the type of data on which he has based his analysis, Vyas, who is managing-director and CEO of CMIE, says, "Weekly estimates are a close approximation of the monthly estimates. Weekly estimates are based on a sample of about seven thousand households that provide the employment/unemployment status of nearly 25,000 individuals that inhabit these sample households."
At the same time, he states, "However, there are a few details that one needs to keep in mind while extrapolating weekly estimates of unemployment to monthly estimates. First, weekly estimates are for the week ended Sunday and months don’t necessarily end on Sundays".
Pointing out that this is a "very minor problem", Vyas says, "Secondly, weekly estimates are not adjusted for non-responses and monthly estimates are adjusted for non-responses. This makes the monthly estimates a little more reliable than the weekly estimates. You are justified if you ask, so, why don’t we just adjust the weekly estimates for non-responses."
The answer, according to him, is that "the weekly sample is a little fluid because of operational problems. Survey execution at a household that is supposed to be surveyed in a particular week may have to be shifted to the next week because of a local problem."
"For example", he says, "In the last couple of weeks, internet services were temporarily suspended in many parts of the country to contain the several protests that have erupted. This hampered survey execution temporarily."
Comments the top expert, "As an aside, it is not a good sign when a country has to suspend internet services repeatedly from entire regions. It brings far too many activities to a halt -- including tax filings, regulatory filings, financial transactions and settlement of bills."
Thirdly, and more substantively, Vyas says, weekly estimates are based on "a survey design that uses appropriate weights for rural and urban India at the all-India level. The monthly estimates are based on a survey design that uses appropriate weights for rural and urban India at the state-level. Thus, there is a much greater stratification deployed in the monthly estimates than in the weekly estimates. This again, makes the monthly estimates more reliable than the weekly estimates."
According to Vyas, "The total number of strata used in the monthly estimates is 49. If the responses from any of these is less than a minimum requirement then the data from such strata is not used because they can skew the results. This greater stratification and stringent requirements on the sample make the monthly estimates fairly robust."
Given this framework, says Vyas, Data of the recent past suggest that weekly estimates overestimate the unemployment rate, on an average, by about 50 basis points compared to the monthly estimates. This implies that the 7.25 per cent unemployment rate we see in the first fortnight of April 2018 could well be 6.75 per cent."
Underlining that "even this is significantly higher than than the unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent in March and 6.1 per cent in February", Vyas says, be that as it may, "It is apparent that the unemployment rate which has been rising steadily over the past eight months will continue to rise during the ninth month -- April 2018."

Comments

What Sister Nivedita understood about India that we have forgotten

By Harasankar Adhikari In the idea of a “Vikshit Bharat,” many real problems—hunger, poverty, ill health, unemployment, and joblessness—are increasingly overshadowed by the religious contest between Hindu and Muslim fundamentalisms. This contest is often sponsored and patronised by political parties across the spectrum, whether openly Hindutva-oriented, Islamist, partisan, or self-proclaimed secular.

The rise of the civilizational state: Prof. Pratap Bhanu Mehta warns of new authoritarianism

By A Representative Noted political theorist and public intellectual Professor Pratap Bhanu Mehta delivered a poignant reflection on the changing nature of the Indian state today, warning that the rise of a "civilizational state" poses a significant threat to the foundations of modern democracy and individual freedom. Delivering the Achyut Yagnik Memorial Lecture titled "The Idea of Civilization: Poison or Cure?" at the Ahmedabad Management Association, Mehta argued that India is currently witnessing a self-conscious political project that seeks to redefine the state not as a product of a modern constitution, but as an instrument of an ancient, authentic civilization.

Why experts say replacing MGNREGA could undo two decades of rural empowerment

By A Representative A group of scientists, academics, civil society organisations and field practitioners from India and abroad has issued an open letter urging the Union government to reconsider the repeal of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and to withdraw the newly enacted Viksit Bharat–Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act, 2025. The letter, dated December 27, 2025, comes days after the VB–G RAM G Bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha on December 16 and subsequently approved by both Houses of Parliament, formally replacing the two-decade-old employment guarantee law.

NYT: RSS 'infiltrates' institutions, 'drives' religious divide under Modi's leadership

By Jag Jivan A comprehensive New York Times investigation published on December 26, 2025, chronicles the rise of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) — characterized as a far-right Hindu nationalist organization — from a shadowy group founded in 1925 to the world's largest right-wing force, marking its centenary in 2025 with unprecedented influence and mainstream acceptance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi , who joined the RSS as a young boy and later became a full-time campaigner before being deputized to its political wing in the 1980s, delivered his strongest public tribute to the group in his August 2025 Independence Day address. Speaking from the Red Fort , he called the RSS a "giant river" with dozens of streams touching every aspect of Indian life, praising its "service, dedication, organization, and unmatched discipline." The report describes how the RSS has deeply infiltrated India's institutions — government, courts, police, media, and academia — ...

India’s universities lag global standards, pushing students overseas: NITI Aayog study

By Rajiv Shah A new Government of India study, Internationalisation of Higher Education in India: Prospects, Potential, and Policy Recommendations , prepared by NITI Aayog , regrets that India’s lag in this sector is the direct result of “several systemic challenges such as inadequate infrastructure to provide quality education and deliver world-class research, weak industry–academia collaboration, and outdated curricula.”

Interfaith cooperation in Punjab village as Sikhs and Hindus support mosque construction

By Bharat Dogra A recent heart-warming report on Sikh and Hindu families helping to build a mosque in a village of Punjab deserves wide attention. It is such examples that truly strengthen national unity. There are many instances of mutual respect and cooperation among people of different religions and faiths that need to be better known today.

'Caste oppression ignored': NCERT textbooks reflect ideological bias, says historian

By A Representative The Indian History Forum organized a webinar titled “Rewriting the Past: Distortions and Ideological Interventions in NCERT History Textbooks” on 22 December 2025. The session featured historian Dr Ruchika Sharma, who critically examined recent changes in NCERT history textbooks and their implications for historical understanding and social cohesion among millions of students across the country.

Investment in rule of law a corporate imperative, not charity: Business, civil society leaders

By A Representative In a compelling town hall discussion hosted at L.J School of Law , prominent voices from industry and civil society underscored that corporate investment in strengthening the rule of law is not an act of charity but a critical business strategy for building a safer, stronger, and developed India by 2047. The dialogue, part of the Unmute podcast series, examined the intrinsic link between ethical business conduct , robust legal frameworks, and sustainable national development, against the sobering backdrop of India ranking 79th out of 142 countries on the global Rule of Law Index .

When a city rebuilt forgets its builders: Migrant workers’ struggle for sanitation in Bhuj

Khasra Ground site By Aseem Mishra* Access to safe drinking water and sanitation is not a privilege—it is a fundamental human right. This principle has been unequivocally recognised by the United Nations and repeatedly affirmed by the Supreme Court of India as intrinsic to the right to life and dignity under Article 21 of the Constitution. Yet, for thousands of migrant workers living in Bhuj, this right remains elusive, exposing a troubling disconnect between constitutional guarantees, policy declarations, and lived reality.

Search This Blog