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Assembly elections 2026: Regional outcomes may shape national politics

By Syed Ali Mujtaba* 
The Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry are scheduled for April 9, 23, and 29, 2026. Tamil Nadu and West Bengal will go to the polls in two phases, on April 23 and 29, respectively. Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry will have single-phase voting on April 9.
A total of 824 seats across five regions will go to the polls. Tamil Nadu has 234 seats, West Bengal 294, Kerala 140, Assam 126, and Puducherry 30. The results for all four states and the Union Territory will be declared on May 4, 2026.
Tamil Nadu: The ruling DMK-led alliance is projected to win the upcoming Assembly elections. Pollsters suggest the alliance may secure between 181 and 189 seats, with a vote share of around 40.1 percent. One of its key advantages is a divided opposition, split between the NDA and the newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
The AIADMK-led NDA is projected to secure the second position, with 38 to 42 seats and about 29 percent vote share. Actor-politician Vijay’s TVK, making its electoral debut, is expected to win 8 to 10 seats with a vote share of 23.9 percent. The party appears to be attracting young and first-time voters, as well as sections dissatisfied with the ruling government.
Poll analysis indicates that the AIADMK-BJP alliance has led to a consolidation of around 6 percent Muslim votes against the AIADMK-led front. Internal divisions within the AIADMK are also affecting its performance.
Puducherry: The Union Territory will vote on April 9, 2026. The Puducherry Legislative Assembly has 30 elected members, along with three members nominated by the Central government. A party or alliance needs 16 seats to form the government.
The election is witnessing a contest between the ruling All India NR Congress (AINRC)-BJP alliance and the Congress-DMK alliance. The AINRC-BJP combine is banking on the popularity of Chief Minister N. Rangasamy, who is seeking a second consecutive term. The alliance is also highlighting the perceived benefits of a “double-engine” government.
The Congress is contesting 16 seats, while the DMK is contesting 14. Despite the DMK’s strong position in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the Congress-DMK alliance appears to be struggling to mount a strong challenge. Pollsters predict the ruling NDA may win 14 to 17 seats.
Kerala: Elections to the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly will be held in a single phase on April 9. The contest is primarily between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), while the BJP-led NDA is attempting to improve its presence.
Pollsters indicate that no single alliance may secure a clear majority. The UDF is projected to win between 67 and 73 seats, while the LDF may secure 62 to 68 seats. This suggests a close contest, with either alliance potentially forming the government. The NDA is expected to win 1 to 2 seats, while others may secure 0 to 3 seats.
In terms of vote share, the UDF may receive around 42 percent, the LDF about 39 percent, and the NDA approximately 15 percent.
West Bengal: The Assembly elections will be held on April 23 and 29, 2026. Pollsters predict a closely fought contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP-led alliance.
The TMC is projected to win between 140 and 160 seats, while the BJP-led alliance may secure 130 to 150 seats. Other parties and independents are expected to win around 8 to 10 seats.
In terms of vote share, the TMC may secure 43 to 45 percent, while the BJP-led alliance could receive 41 to 43 percent. Others may account for 13 to 15 percent. The narrow margin highlights the competitive nature of the contest in West Bengal.
Assam: The Assembly elections in Assam, scheduled for April 9, 2026, are expected to result in a clear victory for the BJP-led alliance. The state has a 126-member Assembly.
Pollsters project the BJP alliance to win between 87 and 97 seats, while the Congress-led alliance may secure 26 to 36 seats. The BJP alliance is expected to receive around 44 percent of the vote share, compared to 36.7 percent for the Congress-led alliance.
According to pollsters, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma enjoys 48 percent support and is likely to return as Chief Minister for a third consecutive term. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi is estimated to have 47 percent support.
If these projections hold, the results could provide momentum to the INDIA Bloc ahead of the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for 2029.
---
*Journalist based in Chennai

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