A year of change: How voter sentiment turned against the National Conference

By Raqif Makhdoomi

I woke up at 8:30 am and instinctively checked my phone for early leads. Initial trends on X (formerly Twitter) suggested an advantage for the , though it was still too early to draw conclusions. I wanted to keep scrolling, but the cold made it difficult, and I drifted back to sleep. When I woke up again, I picked up my phone to check the latest updates.

The new trends showed a shift: the National Conference’s long-held seat appeared set to go to the . It was surprising, especially since had secured the constituency with more than 9,000 votes just a year earlier. The political landscape had changed in that time, with the National Conference’s dominance giving way to the PDP’s surge.

During the campaign, the PDP drew large and energetic crowds that expressed dissatisfaction with Omar Abdullah and the National Conference. Voters said they were disappointed by what they felt were unfulfilled promises. Many had supported the National Conference expecting relief from day-to-day issues, including concerns over . Omar Abdullah’s repeated endorsement of smart meters angered many residents and contributed to discontent. Several voters said they had hoped the meters would be removed, as suggested in some rally speeches.

The National Conference also struggled with its attempt to revive the “BJP factor” as a campaign message. Viral videos of NC legislators appearing with undermined that strategy. In one instance, an NC legislator campaigning in invoked anti-BJP sentiment despite being seen in such videos, prompting online comments calling out the contradiction.

From the announcement of the by-polls onward, the party faced internal challenges, including the rift involving , and a public perception that the party had not delivered on its commitments. Incidents such as Omar Abdullah’s remarks to a daily wager in and comments that were perceived as dismissive added to voter dissatisfaction.

Many voters felt that the party assumed it would retain Budgam despite what they viewed as a lack of progress on promises made when it won 42 seats. The repeated assertion that work would be completed within a five-year mandate no longer appeared convincing to many.

Budgam became a significant test for both the PDP and the National Conference. For the PDP, it was an opportunity to argue that the government had not delivered; for the National Conference, it was a chance to show that it was meeting expectations. The PDP highlighted issues such as the —rejected by the NC in the assembly—to argue that the NC was not acting in the public's interest. This message resonated with a section of voters, contributing to a shift in support.

Slogans used by PDP supporters, such as “” (May you prosper, may you rise), gained traction, and the local sentiment that promises made to Aga Ruhullah should be honoured played a role in mobilizing voters. Many residents of Budgam viewed the election as an opportunity to rethink longstanding political alignments. They demonstrated that while they could support a party strongly at one time, they could also withdraw that support when dissatisfied.

The outcome underlined the central role of voters in a democratic system. Budgam showed that even long-held political strongholds can shift when people feel their expectations are not being met. It served as a reminder that in electoral politics, public sentiment remains decisive and that the influence of ordinary citizens should never be underestimated.

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Raqif Makhdoomi is a law student

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