India's unemployment rate 8.2%, highest in 11 months, greater unemployment 15%: Top consultant CMIE

By Jag Jivan*
One of India's premier independent consultants, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has estimated that India's urban unemployment rate in the week ended October 8 is 8.2 per cent, the highest in the past 11 months. This has happened, says CMIE, despite the fact that the "urban labour participation rate has recovered to its level during the last December-January period."

Explains CMIE, "The rise in labour participation rate and the unemployment rate shows that labour is returning back to the labour markets but it isn’t finding jobs", adding, "The fall in labour participation rate began soon after demonetisation. We are probably seeing a recovery after about a year."
Based on surveys carried out jointly with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the CMIE believes, it's data, which reflected in its about-185-page statistical volume, "can help us understand employment and unemployment in India through the demonetisation period, and going ahead, through the Goods and Services Tax (GST)."
The volume, which is produced at the interval of each quarter, "provide estimates of the labour force, labour participation rate, employed and unemployed persons and the unemployment rate", it adds.
Pointing out that the methodology used by the volume shows a "useful set of additional indicators" about "greater labour force and the greater unemployment rate", CMIE regrets, a person is considered unemployed only if s/he is "willing to work and is actively looking for a job but, is unable to get a job."
Carried out by Mahesh Vyas, Managing Director and CEO, the CMIE analysis of the data says, while calculating unemployment, "three conditions must be fulfilled -- the person must be unemployed, must be willing to work and, must be actively looking for a job." It adds, "The last criterion implies applying for jobs, appearing for interviews, making enquiries for jobs, standing in queues for jobs, etc."

Mahesh Vyas

However, unfortunately, CMIE underlines, "If an unemployed person is willing to work but is not actively looking for a job then s/he is not counted as an unemployed person for calculating the unemployment rate." Calling it an "international practice and this is what we follow", the CMIE says, if one considers as the unemployed those who are "willing to work but are not actively looking for a job", the actual unemployment today would around 15 per cent.
"During 2016, the unemployment rate was 8.2 per cent", equal to what it is today, "but, the greater unemployment rate was 15 per cent", says CMIE, adding, actually, "the labour force is simply the sum of the unemployed as defined above and the employed. And, the unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the labour force."
Answering the question why "should an unemployed person who is willing to work not be looking for a job?", CMIE says, "Possibly, because such a person does not believe that a job is available. Maybe, there is a seasonality in seeking jobs. Or, there could be social constraints that refrain a person from seeking a job."
CMIE insists, "While the reasons for such behavior could be interesting, it is perhaps, very important to know the size of such persons who are willing to work but do not actively look for jobs."
" The sum of unemployed who are willing to work and are actively looking for a job and, unemployed who are willing but not actively looking for a job is the greater unemployed", CMIE says, adding, "Interestingly, the unemployed who are willing to work but are not actively looking for a job was about 70 per cent of the size of the unemployed who are willing and looking for a job."

---

*Freelance writer

Comments

From plagiarism to proxy exams: Galgotias and systemic failure in education

By Sandeep Pandey* Shock is being expressed at Galgotias University being found presenting a Chinese-made robotic dog and a South Korean-made soccer-playing drone as its own creations at the recently held India AI Impact Summit 2026, a global event in New Delhi. Earlier, a UGC-listed journal had published a paper from the university titled “Corona Virus Killed by Sound Vibrations Produced by Thali or Ghanti: A Potential Hypothesis,” which became the subject of widespread ridicule. Following the robotic dog controversy coming to light, the university has withdrawn the paper. These incidents are symptoms of deeper problems afflicting the Indian education system in general. Galgotias merely bit off more than it could chew.

Farewell to Saleem Samad: A life devoted to fearless journalism

By Nava Thakuria* Heartbreaking news arrived from Dhaka as the vibrant city lost one of its most active and committed citizens with the passing of journalist, author and progressive Bangladeshi national Saleem Samad. A gentleman who always had issues to discuss with anyone, anywhere and at any time, he passed away on 22 February 2026 while undergoing cancer treatment at Dhaka Medical College Hospital. He was 74.

From ancient wisdom to modern nationhood: The Indian story

By Syed Osman Sher South of the Himalayas lies a triangular stretch of land, spreading about 2,000 miles in each direction—a world of rare magic. It has fired the imagination of wanderers, settlers, raiders, traders, conquerors, and colonizers. They entered this country bringing with them new ethnicities, cultures, customs, religions, and languages.

The 'glass cliff' at Galgotias: How a university’s AI crisis became a gendered blame game

By Mohd. Ziyaullah Khan* “She was not aware of the technical origins of the product and in her enthusiasm of being on camera, gave factually incorrect information.” These were the words used in the official press release by Galgotias University following the controversy at the AI Impact Summit in Delhi. The statement came across as defensive, petty, and deeply insensitive.

Conversion laws and national identity: A Jesuit response response to the Hindutva narrative

By Rajiv Shah A recent book, " Luminous Footprints: The Christian Impact on India ", authored by two Jesuit scholars, Dr. Lancy Lobo and Dr. Denzil Fernandes , seeks to counter the current dominant narrative on Indian Christians , which equates evangelisation with conversion, and education, health and the social services provided by Christians as meant to lure -- even force -- vulnerable sections into Christianity.

Sergei Vasilyevich Gerasimov, the artist who survived Stalin's cultural purges

By Harsh Thakor* Sergei Vasilyevich Gerasimov (September 14, 1885 – April 20, 1964) was a Soviet artist, professor, academician, and teacher. His work was posthumously awarded the Lenin Prize, the highest artistic honour of the USSR. His paintings traced the development of socialist realism in the visual arts while retaining qualities drawn from impressionism. Gerasimov reconciled a lyrical approach to nature with the demands of Soviet socialist ideology.

Development vs community: New coal politics and old conflicts in Madhya Pradesh

By Deepmala Patel* The Singrauli region of Madhya Pradesh, often described as “India’s energy capital,” has for decades been a hub of coal mining and thermal power generation. Today, the Dhirouli coal mine project in this district has triggered widespread protests among local communities. In recent years, the project has generated intense controversy, public opposition, and significant legal and social questions. This is not merely a dispute over one mine; it raises a larger question—who pays the price for energy development? Large corporate beneficiaries or the survival of local communities?

Development at what cost? The budget's blind spot for the environment

By Raj Kumar Sinha* The historical ills in the relationship between capital and the environment have now manifested in areas commonly referred to as the "environmental crisis." This includes global warming, the destruction of the ozone layer, the devastation of tropical forests, mass mortality of fish, species extinction, loss of biodiversity, poison seeping into the atmosphere and food, desertification, shrinking water supplies, lack of clean water, and radioactive pollution.

Public money, private profits: Crop insurance scheme as goldmine for corporates

By Vikas Meshram The farmer in India is not merely a food provider; he is the soul of the nation. For centuries, enduring natural calamities and bearing debt generation after generation while remaining loyal to the soil, this community now finds itself trapped in a different kind of crisis. In February 2016, the Modi government launched the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) with the stated objective of freeing farmers from the shackles of debt. It was an ambitious attempt to provide a strong safety net to cultivators repeatedly devastated by excessive rainfall, drought, and hailstorms.

Search This Blog