Premature to predict implementation of ceasefure between Israel and Hamas

By Vikas Meshram*

After nearly 15 months of war and several arduous rounds of negotiations, Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. Amid the ongoing power transition in the United States, where leaders are vying to claim credit for ending the conflict, this agreement offers some respite to the people of Gaza, who have been grappling with a dire humanitarian crisis. Despite repeated efforts by the United Nations and initiatives from Islamic nations in the Middle East, peace talks have yet to yield lasting success. This war has claimed the lives of approximately 50,000 people, and rebuilding the destruction caused across various parts of Gaza might take decades.

While the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire is significant, predicting its implementation is premature. Following the October 23 Hamas attack that deeply wounded Israel, the latter has grown weary of continuous fighting on multiple fronts. Yet, Arab nations continue to question Israel's credibility. Concerns arise as negotiations often derail before reaching their final stages, and a constant cycle of discussions and attacks persists. The future will determine the sincerity of both parties in adhering to this agreement.

Political opposition and divisions within the Israeli cabinet over the release of hostages persist. However, there is also a demand to provide relief to the Israeli military, exhausted after this prolonged war. Still, the agreement on a ceasefire has rekindled hopes for peace. While incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden and newly elected President Donald Trump are competing to claim credit for this deal, Iran is celebrating it as a victory for Palestinian resistance.

The recent agreement includes an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, the phased release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and reconstruction efforts in Gaza. Additionally, displaced people from Gaza will be allowed to return. However, obstacles to delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza must still be overcome.

On October 7, 2023, a brutal Hamas attack killed 1,200 Israelis, with approximately 250 individuals taken hostage. Israel's retaliation was inevitable, but no one expected the conflict to last 15 months. Although some hostages were released and others died during fighting, the remaining hostages left the Netanyahu government under intense pressure. Hamas claims that Israeli attacks have killed around 50,000 people, as reported by its health ministry. While it is difficult to ascertain the number of Hamas fighters killed, countless women and children have lost their lives in this war. An estimated 2 million people have been displaced by the Gaza conflict, creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Hospitals and schools, considered safe havens for refugees, were also targeted by Israeli strikes. Israel faces allegations of war crimes in the International Court of Justice.

As the situation begins to shift towards peace after a long time, the international community and the United Nations must oversee the agreement's implementation to ensure sustainable peace in the Middle East. War cannot be a substitute for peace. While Hamas initiated the conflict, those who were not responsible for it paid the highest price.

Doubts remain about whether this agreement will provide a lasting solution to the Palestinian crisis. However, the Palestinians, who have endured the horrors of war and the impact of climate shocks, will undoubtedly gain some relief. The ceasefire news brought thousands onto Gaza's streets, hoping for an end to daily bombings and gunfire. Despite lingering uncertainties, disagreements over the details of Israel's partial withdrawal and the list of hostages to be released were resolved at the last moment. The ceasefire officially began on Sunday.

Although this is not the end of the war, halting the violence is a significant relief for the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza. The agreement is expected to be implemented in three phases. In the first phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages, while Israel will free about 1,000 Palestinian security prisoners. In the second phase, further exchanges of hostages and prisoners will take place, and both sides will be required to cease hostilities permanently. The third phase will involve discussions on "the future course," including deliberations on who should govern Gaza.

Currently, both sides are focused on the first phase. Problems may arise when the next stage of negotiations begins. At the onset of this war, Israel set two goals for itself—eliminating Hamas and freeing the hostages. In the 15-month war, Israel weakened Hamas's terrorist infrastructure, but the group has survived and reestablished itself as a rebel force.

According to outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Hamas recruited as many fighters as it lost during the war. Israel's inability to destroy Hamas or aggressively rescue hostages raises serious questions about the IDF's military strategy in Gaza. This could be one reason Benjamin Netanyahu was compelled to accept the ceasefire. However, he has made no commitments to ending the war.

Hamas, on the other hand, demands Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza. Despite potential obstacles, the ceasefire is a welcome development. It provides Gaza with much-needed relief and a platform for further negotiations. Post-war, Israel, Palestinians, and international mediators must work to bridge the gaps.

Israel is unlikely to accept any terms that leave Hamas as a dominant force in Gaza. Establishing a unified administration led by the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority and focusing on Gaza's reconstruction seems to be a more practical solution. However, for this plan to succeed and peace to prevail, Israel must be willing to withdraw all its forces from the Gaza Strip.

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*Journalist

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