The political landscape in Jammu & Kashmir has shifted markedly since the Budgam by-election was announced. With Aga Muntazir Mehdi now elected as the MLA from Budgam, celebrations continue at his residence as people congratulate him on what many describe as an exceptional victory. He will represent Budgam for the next four years, and his performance during this term will determine his future in the constituency.
The National Conference (NC) was visibly shaken by the outcome. Omar Abdullah’s frustration was evident in his immediate reactions to the media. His remarks—directed at both Aga Muntazir and Aga Ruhullah Mehdi—reflected a rare moment of open anger. Within NC, the atmosphere was heavy; as soon as the PDP gained an early lead, a deep silence settled over the party. When the lead widened, NC leaders took nearly two days to respond publicly. Even their supporters struggled to defend the defeat online, aware that Budgam had become a litmus test—one they failed.
For the PDP, however, this was not a test but an opportunity to validate its political stand—both inside and outside the Assembly. And it largely succeeded. While some observers now say the victory was the outcome of support from two or three groups, it remains a win regardless. After all, NC’s own success in 2024 was driven not by the party alone but by the INDIA alliance. What is clear is that the PDP held its core vote, securing around 17,000 votes independently, while the NC’s vote bank split among several candidates. NOTA also received more votes than many contestants, a reminder that public trust in political parties remains fragile.
When NC leaders finally spoke, their defence—that the PDP did not contest alone—found few takers. Meanwhile, the Congress was conspicuously absent from the Budgam campaign. Not a single senior Congress leader campaigned for the NC, signalling that ties between the two parties may be strained. JKPCC president Tariq Hameed Karra later stated that the Budgam results reflected public anger over the government’s unfulfilled promises. His comments may also hint that the Congress is re-evaluating its alliance with the NC, especially given that it has received neither a Rajya Sabha seat nor a place in the government. Yet it continues to invest in what increasingly looks like one-sided loyalty—while NC’s growing proximity to the BJP is no longer a secret.
Since losing Budgam, NC leaders have noticeably changed their approach. MLAs are now spending nights in their constituencies and holding frequent public meetings—something uncommon until recently. Development projects are being approved at a pace not seen earlier, suggesting the party has entered damage-control mode. Their earlier dismissive phrase, “Kaun Aga,” has turned into an uncomfortable reminder of what they overlooked.
Omar Abdullah, who spent much of the past year engaged in marathons and skiing events, is now actively touring his constituency—a rarity. Gandarbal, once at the bottom of his priority list, is suddenly at the top. He even announced projects worth ₹150 crore, prompting many residents to remark that they should thank the people of Budgam for voting against NC, as it appears to have revived interest in their own MLA’s performance.
Across the region, NC legislators are now attempting to ensure that people no longer feel neglected. The old refrain—“judge us after five years”—has been abandoned. Today, they seem willing to offer almost hourly updates on their work. Budgam has clearly jolted the party. The reaction of NC workers shows that they never anticipated losing a seat they had held since 1977. They may have lost the seat to the PDP, but they have also lost the psychological upper hand.
In the Assembly, an NC MLA once told Waheed Para to “shut up,” claiming the mandate belonged to the NC alone. Today, the question must be asked: have the people now delivered a message to the NC to speak less and work more? Or will the party continue to avoid introspection about what went wrong?
Whether the NC admits it or not, Budgam has changed the political dynamics. The electorate wanted change and chose the PDP over a party long seen as dominant. The results show that the PDP is still viewed as a viable alternative—not a spent force. Budgam has demonstrated that voters have choices and will exercise them when they want change.
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*Law student and human rights activist
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