Changing geopolitical configurations and the imperative of energy security

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra* 

The imperative of energy security has emerged as a defining concern in the foreign policies of most nations today. Prolonged wars in Europe and Asia, coupled with the interventions of great powers and their rivalries across different regions, have intensified uncertainty in the global supply and procurement of vital natural resources such as oil and natural gas. To mitigate such risks—and constrained by national and global climate commitments—many countries are accelerating their shift toward renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while adopting technologies to enhance energy efficiency and conservation.

However, the supply chains for key inputs necessary for power generation and storage remain concentrated in a handful of countries, with China exerting overwhelming dominance. Consequently, energy security is acquiring new dimensions in the age of rising electricity demand—not only to sustain expanding urban populations and industries, but also to power electric vehicles, semiconductor manufacturing, and artificial intelligence technologies, all of which require unprecedented levels of energy

Even as economies transition toward renewable energy, fossil fuels retain enduring importance. The oil shocks of the 1970s exposed the vulnerabilities of overdependence on the Middle East and led developed countries to build mechanisms that tied oil supplies more closely to global market system. 

Geopolitical rivalries among major powers, however, are now eroding the globalization process that had once promised greater integration and interdependence. The United States, after decades of championing globalization, has increasingly turned to state capitalism to preserve its dominance in energy markets and to enforce sanctions against energy-producing states. Meanwhile, China—after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001—has invested heavily in securing alternative routes and resources through its Belt and Road Initiative, financing pipelines, ports, and refineries to safeguard its energy supplies amid mounting global disruptions.

In pursuit of energy independence and strategic advantage, the U.S. expanded shale oil production and diversified its energy imports across regions—from Latin America to Central Asia and the Middle East. This policy shielded the U.S. from the kinds of vulnerabilities that beset many energy-dependent nations, including European countries and developing economies such as India, which faced heightened exposure following the Russia–Ukraine war. Despite its own energy self-sufficiency, the U.S. has used sanctions on producers like Iran and Russia as tools of geopolitical influence. Yet, with forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicating a decline in shale output, competition for global energy resources may soon intensify.

As global demand continues to grow, nations will increasingly look toward renewables, but also remain dependent on traditional sources from the Middle East, Russia, and Central Asia. This dependence elevates the strategic importance of critical maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Turkish Straits, Panama Canal, and Bab el-Mandeb Strait—areas where geopolitical contestation could easily disrupt energy flows. The prolonged U.S. confrontation with Houthi forces in the Red Sea illustrates the persistent challenges of securing these routes.

The transition to clean energy, while vital for climate sustainability, introduces new geopolitical complexities. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electricity’s share of global energy consumption is expected to rise from 20% to 25% by 2035. Yet the storage and transport of electricity remain problematic, leaving importers vulnerable to disruptions. China has consolidated an extraordinary position in this emerging landscape: it dominates the supply chains for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and graphite, as well as 70% of global refining capacity. The country controls 80% of solar manufacturing, a similar share of wind energy components, and about 85% of battery production capacity, including 95% of anode production. This concentration gives Beijing significant leverage over clean energy technologies and markets.

As China’s strategic weight in the renewable energy sector expands, the South China Sea’s geopolitical importance is likely to deepen further. The United States, while maintaining energy independence, remains wary of China’s ascendancy and continues to employ trade, technology, and security measures to counter it.

Throughout history, great powers have used control over energy production and supply routes as instruments of geopolitical influence. Today’s landscape—marked by trade wars, the continuing Russia–Ukraine conflict, renewed instability in the Middle East, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea—suggests that access to secure and affordable energy will remain a central determinant of global power relations. The challenge for all nations lies in balancing the pursuit of cleaner energy futures with the enduring realities of geopolitical competition and strategic vulnerability.

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*Lecturer in Political Science, SVM Autonomous College, Jagatsinghpur, Odisha