Five million visitors and rising: Scientists urge carrying capacity controls in Char Dham

By Jag Jivan

A new scientific study published in Scientific Reports outlines a comprehensive strategy for developing sustainable tourism in the Char Dham circuit of Uttarakhand—Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri, and Yamunotri—using advanced geospatial and socio-economic analysis. The research, conducted by Jagdish Chandra Kuniyal and colleagues from the Veer Chandra Singh Garhwali University of Horticulture and Forestry and the G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, stresses the urgent need for balancing religious tourism growth with environmental preservation in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.

The paper notes that visitor numbers to the Char Dham have risen sharply—from around one million in the early 2000s to more than five million in 2023. Using multiple criteria decision analysis and GIS-based mapping, the team estimated that the sustainable daily tourist capacity should be limited to approximately 15,778 visitors at Badrinath, 13,111 at Kedarnath, 8,178 at Gangotri, and 6,160 at Yamunotri. The study correlates the rise in pilgrim inflows with increasing local income levels and infrastructure expansion but warns that unregulated growth threatens both biodiversity and community stability.

The researchers observed rapid glacial retreat in all four regions—most prominently at Gangotri, where ice loss averaged 22.36 metres per year between 2002 and 2020—along with temperature increases across pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons. These climatic shifts, compounded by flash floods and cloudbursts, have raised the frequency of disasters such as those witnessed in Kedarnath in 2013 and in other parts of Uttarakhand in 2025. The authors recommend setting up weather radars and early warning systems to protect lives and infrastructure.

The report highlights disparities among the districts that host the shrines: Rudraprayag, Uttarkashi, and Chamoli remain predominantly rural, with a large share of households below the poverty line. Despite the economic importance of the pilgrimage—estimated to contribute about USD 888 million annually and employ 50,000 people—the benefits have not translated evenly across communities. The study advocates community-based tourism models, homestays, and local handicraft promotion to ensure inclusive growth.

Kuniyal and colleagues propose a decentralized tourism framework that diverts pressure from core temple sites to surrounding “satellite destinations.” Suggested initiatives include developing mountaineering villages, promoting low-carbon transport, and introducing a mobile app to guide travellers toward eco-friendly accommodations and local products. The plan also encourages “Gham Tapo” or “basking in the sunshine” tourism during winter to extend the travel season and reduce overcrowding in the summer months.

Aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the paper urges policy measures such as restricting entry to Bharat Stage VI or electric vehicles, enforcing solid waste management through the polluter-pays principle, and empowering local tribes through eco-entrepreneurship. It also supports Uttarakhand’s Tourism Policy 2030 and national programs like Swadesh Darshan and PRASHAD, which prioritize sustainable infrastructure and heritage conservation.

The authors conclude that effective management of visitor numbers, improved monitoring of air and water quality, and digitalization of tourism services are essential for the long-term survival of the Himalayan pilgrimage routes. They caution that carrying capacity estimates should be dynamically updated as infrastructure and environmental conditions evolve, emphasizing that only a community-driven, scientifically informed approach can secure the future of the Char Dham as both a sacred and sustainable destination.

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