Skip to main content

Energy demand by 2050 to go up by 4 times: Natural resources expected to become unmangeable

By Shankar Sharma* 
ORF Weekly Energy News Monitor has carried a credible analysis of India' energy profile in the context of the ever escalating multiple global crises.   If, as mentioned in the analysis, if India's developmental paradigm takes it to the status as the first or second largest energy consumer, the ecological implications to our people can be horrendous in a BAU scenario.  
For example the analysis says: "India’s per person energy consumption is close to the average in Southern African countries (excluding South Africa) of 25.5 GJ and well below the world average of 77 GJ. If energy consumption growth were a race, India would count as a determined competitor slowly approaching the finishing line (achieve per person energy consumption of about 100 GJ required for high development index [HDI])..."  
That will be about a 4 times increase in per capita energy consumption, and for a total population which may be more than 150 crore by 2050.  The total energy demand by 2050 can be more than 4 times the present energy demand. 
The question that should haunt our planners is: how sustainable will such a demand/ supply scenario be, assuming that India will be able to meet such a huge demand growth without facing major calamities between now and 2050.  In a business as usual (BAU) scenario the pressure on our natural resources, which is already high, can expected to be unmangeable.
Civil society groups cannot afford to ignore such a scenario, even if our planners cannot be seen to have the required level of dedication/ commitment to plan for such a futuristic scenario.  We should do all that is feasible to persuade our authorities to diligently consider such projections for the near future, and to take all steps to address the associated concerns.
---
*Power & Climate Policy Analyst

Comments

Post a Comment

NOTE: Hateful, abusive comments won't be published. -- Editor

TRENDING

The making of a self-made woman: How eighty sheep changed everything for Kalawati Ninama

By Vikas Meshram*  About forty-two kilometres from Rajasthan's Banswara district, in the tribal heartland of Ghatol block, lies the small village of Ubapana. This is where Kalawati Ninama, her husband Dhulji, and their four children make their home. Their days unfold much like those of their neighbours—bustling mornings, long hours of farm labour through the afternoon, and evenings spent tending livestock. For this family, farming and livestock were once simply a means of putting food on the table. Today, they have become the sturdy foundation of something far greater: genuine self-sufficiency.
Post a Comment
»

Ahmedabad world’s least climate resilient major city: AlphaGeo study

By Rajiv Shah  A new study has ranked Ahmedabad as the least climate-resilient major city in the world , highlighting a dangerous gap between the city’s extreme physical vulnerability to climate hazards and its capacity to adapt. Cited by The New York Times , the analysis, conducted by geospatial artificial intelligence firm AlphaGeo , places the Indian city at the top of a list of global urban centres most exposed to climate risk.
Post a Comment
»

India has spent billions on skilling. Where are the jobs?

By Vikas Gupta   India loves the photograph of a certificate ceremony. A minister on a stage. A banner bearing the word “skill.” Young people holding folders that promise a future. It is a reassuring image because it tells us the problem has a manageable answer: train the young, make them job-ready, and work will follow.
Post a Comment
»